PLA Next Generation Main Battle Tank

tphuang

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This is my initial view on the matter as well. If a good share of offensive capabilities is offloaded to networked close air support assets then ground fighting might increasingly favor tank forces that can be transported more quickly and execute faster maneuvers. After all a critical dimension of advantage in systems centric warfare is speed.

Even if this is the case though I do think that ground forces still need a heavy tank to *hold* positions, so there probably should be a heavy tank in the works as well, though the number of different tank types in the future force structure might be changing if what we’re seeing with this new light/medium tank in fact reflects a change in thinking about tank warfare doctrine.

I don’t think of this as indexing on drone warfare in Ukraine so much as adapting to new technological and tactical contexts. The point of the argument isn’t to only to depend on light tanks, but rather how a different kind of light tank might fit into the context of new thinking on broader ground warfare doctrine. The thinking is organized not around counteracting the prevalence of drones but around how to leverage available new capabilities to best achieve the primary objectives of ground warfare (which is generate maneuver advantages to take and then hold territory). This new tank needs to be seen in the context of other potential future platforms around it. If the thesis for the thinking behind this tank is correct this is but one piece in a whole system of new ground warfare doctrine. That at least would be the case for this tank being the primary mainstay of the future tank force (which to be clear we don’t in fact know to be the case currently).

yep, people need to reach this carefully. This is a different type of ground warfare.

think of this as a network centric warfare for ground force. Don't think too much about Ukraine. That's bush league compared to what PLA is doing.

Basically, we are only LEO constellation away from the entire network centric warfare being fully in play. Right now, you are probably still quite dependent on aerial platform (I would imagine) for networking sensory data from different ground assets.

For example, imagine a case where your UGV (which you'd want to operate closer to the front) senses a FPV coming over low, it shaers this data with nearby asset and then controlling node makes a decision on who and how to engage that FPV.
 

alanch90

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Ztz99a replacement is gonna be a beast can't wait

Actually, given the huge shift toward network centric warfare and sensor integration, one must ask if there really is a need for the previous generation heavy armor platforms that are unsuitable for certain terrains and probably more maintenance heavy.

new plugin hybrid platforms with low noise & heat signature that are networked and connected with aerial assets could be better.

Back in the day, the split in the tank program between the ZTZ-96 and ZTZ-99 was an imposition of circumstances rather than a deliberate decision. Having parallel tanks isn't desirable or efficient. The USSR only did it as a compromise between various competing design bureaus and interests.

At the time, the availability of resources simply didn't allow a single tank with the technological level and tactical characteristics of the ZTZ-99 to be mass-produced like the ZTZ-96. It was just too cost-prohibitive, so the program was split. One model became a workhorse that ended up forming the backbone of the PLA, and the more premium ZTZ-99 became the priority for future technology development and fielding. However, this came with the undesirable consequence that the PLA's most capable tank had significant terrain restrictions, leaving many regions of the country unable to be defended by it. It's also worth noting that relations with Russia—the greatest land power on China's borders—were not good at the time and only began to improve well into the 2000s. Securing Russia as a strategic ally has since relieved a lot of pressure on China's borders.

Fast forward to today, and it's not all that clear if there's a need for an even more premium tank and/or with more armor or a bigger gun. If everything reported about the "ZTZ-201" is true, it is already the world's most technologically advanced tank. The land threat just isn't there. Again, Russia is now a close ally, and relations with India may improve over time. Even if they don't, the terrain in the disputed regions isn't compatible with a 55-ton tank. And in the wildly unrealistic scenario of US Army disembarking on China, their heavier AFVs will have a lot of trouble operating on many regions due to the soil and terrain characteristics. On the other hand, the PLA is now moving towards a more expeditionary capability, and lighter tanks that are more easily transported across regions and continents are more desirable.

For example, look at the US experience. With the world's most robust logistics capabilities, it still took them half a year to assemble a ground force to fight Iraq (which wasn't a great power) in 1990, even with dozens of allies. This was partly due to the weight of their Abrams tanks at the time (and they are even heavier now). Right after the Gulf War, they decided they wanted new tanks and AFVs based on a universal light platform to be developed within the Future Combat Systems program. Their Abrams replacement (XM1202) was to be a 20-ton light tank with a two-person crew and an unmanned turret that would have relied heavily on networked warfare and APS to overcome its limited ballistic protection. Sound familiar? I think China has drawn heavily on this experience and decided on a 40-ton platform, which might just be a sweet spot, striking a delicate balance between the requirements of platform survivability (armor, etc.) and strategic/operational mobility.


XM1202 for reference
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Gloire_bb

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think of this as a network centric warfare for ground force. Don't think too much about Ukraine. That's bush league compared to what PLA is doing.

Basically, we are only LEO constellation away from the entire network centric warfare being fully in play. Right now, you are probably still quite dependent on aerial platform (I would imagine) for networking sensory data from different ground assets.
Bush league fights with LEO constellation for years though.

Grand parade is demonstration of what army wants itself to be, but army, especially big one, is a much more complicated thing.
 
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Builder

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Can someone please explain/translate what this is all about? Seems like the chamber of the new 105 mm tank gun. Is this a perhaps an electrothermal chemical mechanisme?
 

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Tomboy

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Can someone please explain/translate what this is all about? Seems like the chamber of the new 105 mm tank gun. Is this a perhaps an electrothermal chemical mechanisme?
It has a ignition charge, which unless I'm mistaken, ETC cannons do not need that.
 

alanch90

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Can someone please explain/translate what this is all about? Seems like the chamber of the new 105 mm tank gun. Is this a perhaps an electrothermal chemical mechanisme?
I ran the article through an AI. This is what I got:

"This work, titled **"Numerical Simulation of Two-Dimensional Two-Phase Flow of Covered Mixed Propellant for a Certain 105mm High-Pressure Cannon"**, by **Yin, Jihong**, was published in **2021** by **Nanjing University of Science and Technology**. It is a **Master's thesis** (ie. not necessarily related to a specific tank gun).

The core invention described in this thesis is a **new type of propellant charge known as "covered mixed propellant" (包覆混合装药)**. This innovative propellant consists of two main components: an **uncovered propellant (未包覆发射药)** and a distinct **covering layer (包覆层)**.
Key characteristics and advantages of this new propellant compared to traditional ones include:
* The covering layer is not a metallic casing but a **material designed to be consumed during combustion**. It is formed by **adding 30% flame retardant (阻燃剂) to the composition of the uncovered propellant**.
* Both the uncovered propellant and the covering layer have their own determined calorific values, confirming their role in the combustion process.
* The primary purpose of the covering layer is to **control the burning rate of the propellant**.


* **Advantages over Traditional Propellants:**
* **Improved Control over Combustion:** The covering layer acts as a retardant, allowing for **better control of the propellant's burning speed** [Conversation History, 7].
* **Optimized Pressure Profile:** The covered mixed propellant leads to a different pressure rise phenomenon. It **slows down the rate of pressure increase**, **delays the arrival of the maximum pressure**, and **extends the overall combustion time** within the gun barrel.
* **Plateau Effect in Chamber Pressure:** By carefully mixing the uncovered and covered propellants, it's possible to **achieve a "plateau effect" (膛内压力产生平台效应) in the chamber pressure**, which means fluctuations in pressure can be significantly suppressed, leading to a more stable firing process.
* **Enhanced Energy Utilization:** This combination of propellants helps to **improve the energy utilization rate of the propellant (提高发射药的能量利用率)**.
* **Greater Design Flexibility:** The developed numerical simulation model for this covered mixed propellant provides efficient, safe, and reliable technical support for designing new propellants for cannons, enabling the **optimization of internal ballistic performance**.

* **Projectile Ballistics and Performance (for a 105mm high-pressure cannon):**
The study is specifically conducted for a **105mm high-pressure cannon**, implying the projectiles are of this caliber. While **explicit weight or detailed dimensions of the projectile itself are not provided** in the given excerpts, the thesis extensively analyzes the **muzzle velocity (弹丸初速)** achieved with this new propellant. The muzzle velocity is a key indicator of the projectile's performance.

The **muzzle velocity varies significantly depending on the propellant mixture, the percentage of the covering layer, and the total charge amount:**
* **Influence of Mixing Ratio (Uncovered vs. Covered Propellant):**
* For various mixing ratios, the **muzzle velocities (弹丸初速)** observed range from **1686.948 m/s to 1721.889 m/s**.
* For example, a mixing ratio of 10:0 (all uncovered propellant) yields 1721.889 m/s, while a ratio of 0:10 (all covered propellant) yields 1674.425 m/s. The research also shows that optimizing these ratios can potentially **increase the initial velocity of the projectile**.
* **Influence of Covering Layer Percentage:**
* When the percentage of the covering layer's mass is varied, the muzzle velocities range from **1668.509 m/s (for 15% covering layer) to 1729.549 m/s (for 9% covering layer)**. This suggests an optimal range for the covering layer's proportion to maximize velocity.
* **Influence of Charge Amount (装药量):**
* As the charge amount increases, the **muzzle velocity generally increases**. For instance, with charge amounts ranging from 5.85 kg to 6.05 kg, muzzle velocities are shown to increase from **1678.521 m/s to 1741.075 m/s**.
* **Influence of Ignition Charge Amount (点火药量):**
* Varying the ignition charge amount from 20g to 90g results in muzzle velocities ranging from **1697.859 m/s to 1702.477 m/s**.
* **Influence of Charge Form (药形):**
* Different charge forms (e.g., seven-hole cylindrical vs. nine-hole flower-shaped) also impact muzzle velocity. For example, a "Covered A + main charge" configuration achieved **1561.104 m/s**, while "Covered C + main charge" achieved **1808.973 m/s**.

These findings demonstrate the new propellant's capacity to significantly impact and optimize the projectile's exit velocity from the 105mm cannon."
 

tphuang

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Bush league fights with LEO constellation for years though.

Grand parade is demonstration of what army wants itself to be, but army, especially big one, is a much more complicated thing.
i have no idea what that first sentence is trying to say.

based on what guancha folks said to weibo today, we are basically just a LEO constellation short of where they think the ultimate ground network centric warfare looks.
 

Gloire_bb

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i have no idea what that first sentence is trying to say.
Ah, just a smirk. It is not good for a military annalyst to ignore military conflicts due to perception biases. Army, China's included (perhaps especially China's, due to the speed of nation's transformation) is a state within state. While new tanks are certainly NEVs, this isn't the same world as private NEV market.

Ukraine was the first conflict where large scale LEO constellation was adapted at scale in conflict (ironically, by both sides - which is also a lesson), at least 4 years before wide deployment of tailor-made systems for armed forces of US or China.

You're seeing a parade - which is a vision of emerging PLA as it wants to be, not PLA as it is. Elite units are probably already this way. Most of PLAGF isn't.
And it's kinda optimistic to expect GW and QF to provide starlink-level service before 2027.
 
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tphuang

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this is actually a good post which contains some point of what we are seeing
中国工业产业链的空间布局与技术创新早已深度融入军事装备发展,形成支撑陆军新一代装甲突击平台的系统性能力。

沿海地区的高端电子产业集群与中西部重型装备制造基地通过梯度分工实现协同,例如东部传感器研发集群与北方装甲总装基地共享供应链网络。国有装备集团在多省份建立的配套体系确保关键部件如复合装甲材料、混动动力单元的稳定供应,这种分散化布局显著提升产业链抗风险能力。

民用技术转化助推军工装备制造技术迭代升级也是核心驱动力。

南方光电企业将消费电子生产工艺用于军用多光谱探测模块,使分布式光学传感器成本下降70%以上;国家级研究所联合通信企业开发的主动相控阵雷达采用移动通信射频技术,探测精度达0.1毫弧度且单价显著低于进口产品。

民用新能源企业转化的碳化硅电驱系统应用于装甲车辆,实现4小时静音巡航,能源管理系统动态分配电力至武器、传感器和推进模块,综合能效比传统柴油机提升40%。

作战体系重构依赖工业数字化平台支撑。
What we are seeing on this next generation of ground combat platforms significantly leverage techs you will find in commercial industries.

I actually think what he is saying here is understating things because the cost reduction in radar system & RF improvement are greater than what's stated here.

But more importantly, the EREV tech is the key here. And this has been talked about since recent Zhuhai air show with all those UGVs. Using high voltage ePlatform, you get much higher energy efficiency + lower heat for the same power. You can design the same engine power with much more compact propulsion platforms, because you can run the eMotor at much higher rpm..

The energy you get is stored in battery, which balances out energy consumption peaks/valleys. The power generated can be spread efficiently across weapon platform, sensors and propulsion. One measure of NEVs is improve NVH (noise, vibration and harshness). So you get quieter and more steady navigation. Good for both crew and stealth purposes. Of course, reduced heat from running on battery and higher voltage also reduces thermal signature.

工程机械企业开发的物联网系统为装备提供全生命周期管理,预测性维修效率提升50%。装甲突击平台作为战场信息节点,通过车载边缘计算设备融合无人机、卫星及步兵终端数据,形成实时战术云网。

国防政策文件明确指出"推进武器装备智能化、无人化、网络化发展",国有装备集团据此开发的新型装甲车搭载多源感知系统,实现毫秒级目标识别。
very interesting here about IoT system helps them with full lifecycle management and improving predictive maintenance by 50%. Edge computing on armored vehicle (as information node) allows for integrating data from drones, satellites and infantry for combat web.

as I discussed earlier, armored vehicles has multi sensors (with reduced costs) for ms target recognition.

按军用标准生产的通用底盘可72小时内更换任务模块,例如西部特种车辆制造基地的发射单元兼容某型巡飞弹药系统,单台载弹量12枚并由协同平台控制制导。民营企业开发的微型制导弹药采用"分离式发射-制导"模式,通过第三方无人机锁定目标。
modular design with common chassis allows mission modules to be replaced in 72 hours. allowing carrying different type of munitions.
for example, using platform with 12 micro-missiles to attack developed by a private enterprise can attack targets acquired by third party drones.

主管部门统计显示军工信息化领域民企参与度五年提升23个百分点;陆军装备信息化率七年提升37个百分点,混动装甲车续航里程增加200公里。
private enterprise participation in military digital/information sector has increased 23% in past 5 years and increased 37% in past 7 years for the army.
hybrid armored vehicle range has increased 200km.

But imo, the key is still just being able to use the power generated directly by EREV propulsion in your weapon system and sensors.

正是工业体系的全面领先与全产业链的紧密结合,让中国最新的装甲突击武器平台,可以彻底不再把装甲弹对抗作为核心,彻底拥抱了信息、火力一体化,围绕全范围的态势感知系统
transformation is shifting the focus from armor penetration/defense type of parameters to information and firepower integration.

So in this kind of setup, you don't really need heavy tanks anymore. in fact, ideally you will never need your 40t tanks to go up against Abram directly. you will detect Abram before it detects you and then attack it with munition either from your own mission module or one of the UGVs or drones.
 

Michaelsinodef

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Ah, just a smirk. It is not good for a military annalyst to ignore military conflicts due to perception biases. Army, China's included (perhaps especially China's, due to the speed of nation's transformation) is a state within state. While new tanks are certainly NEVs, this isn't the same world as private NEV market.

Ukraine was the first conflict where large scale LEO constellation was adapted at scale in conflict (ironically, by both sides - which is also a lesson), at least 4 years before wide deployment of tailor-made systems for armed forces of US or China.

You're seeing a parade - which is a vision of emerging PLA as it wants to be, not PLA as it is. Elite units are probably already this way. Most of PLAGF isn't.
And it's kinda optimistic to expect GW and QF to provide starlink-level service before 2027.
The kind of LEO constellation in use in the conflict in Ukraine, is not anywhere the level or high tech as the one tphuang is envisioning or the PLA is gonna get though.
 
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