PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[4Tran]

Or maybe Xi is deliberately lying to Trump. Lying is extremely common among politicians. It is part of everyday politics. "We lie, we cheat, and we steal" - says the great prophet Mike Pompeo

Xi Jinping would never lie about something like this. In general, he wouldn't ever lie in a way that's easy to catch because Chinese leaders value their reputation, but in the specific case of Taiwan, absolutely not.

On the other hand, Trump lies all the time, so it's an easy conclusion to draw.

 

[Temstar]

I think people that think that Taiwan will declare independence are seriously misguided. The DPP is seriously unpopular now: the failure of the recall initiatives, the imprisonment of Ko Wen-je, and the fact that William 赖皮 is a total idiot and stooge (he only won with 40%) all point to this.

Furthermore, Chinese soft power has been rising this year, while America's has been declining. Trump's tariffs are deeply unpopular, and 赖狗's dickriding of the USA and Japan is not helping. So many people in Taiwan scroll Douyin, watch C-Dramas, and buy Chinese shit from Temu. China is getting richer and richer. Beijing and Shanghai's GDP per capita has almost surpassed that of Taiwan. There are numerous individuals like 馆长 engaging in United Front Work, and showing off China's power.

Even though the toads are delusional, they by no means represent all of the Taiwanese. It's only these mentally ill/descendants of Japanese collaborators that truly oppose China. Notice how China's really only been attacking people claiming Taiwan independence, and not the KMT/TPP? I think people are also all disgusted with these sorts of people - especially when you consider how most of them look and act.

Taiwanese people are still Chinese after all; they are pragmatic and smart. When you speak the same language, have the same history, eat the same food, it is easy to identify with the upcoming strongest state in the world. This is especially true among the Indigenous peoples, Hakkas and Waishengren. With time, Chinese identity will re-emerge.

I think peaceful reunification (although with significant coercion as well, as has been the case for a long time) is the most likely, and optimal outcome. It probably would also be a sort of 1C2S, with the DPP being banned to make it more palatable for the remaining Taiwanese that are still on the fence. The only thing we should fear, that could lead to a violent outcome would be a color revolution brought on by the USA, like 1989, Sunflower, Umbrella and 2019 HK. However, I believe that this probability would be low, and even if it did happen, the success rate would be low as well.

Notice how 馆长 didn't get into trouble after returning to Taiwan unlike say Ko Wen-je, despite 馆长 basically doing United Front work in the open and destroying DPP narrative. They even let him leave Taiwan again to go to Shenzhen where he's showing off all those DJI drones and EVs right now:

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Consider the possibility that DPP themselves are testing the water for peaceful reunification where DPP and not KMT gets to negotiate on behalf of Taiwan for their own benefit post-reunification.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If it was a lie Chinese foreign ministry would have refuted him right away.

Nooooo, China usually does not engage in any kind of childish games with the Trump admin. If asked directly, they will say, "We have never heard of such a thing and believe it to be false," but unless it is actively causing damage, they will not take the initiative on refuting it.

 

[GulfLander]

Cgtn talkign abt alleged "changes made in T4iwan textbooks"

 

[latenlazy]

Notice how 馆长 didn't get into trouble after returning to Taiwan unlike say Ko Wen-je, despite 馆长 basically doing United Front work in the open and destroying DPP narrative. They even let him leave Taiwan again to go to Shenzhen where he's showing off all those DJI drones and EVs right now:

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View attachment 158574

Consider the possibility that DPP themselves are testing the water for peaceful reunification where DPP and not KMT gets to negotiate on behalf of Taiwan for their own benefit post-reunification.

Nah they ain’t clever like that. The DPP isn’t throwing the legal books at 馆长 because after trying Ko and seeing the fiasco it’s caused they’ve started to understand that doing more of this shenanigans against popular TPP aligned figures is just going to backfire harder on them. They’re already in damage control mode with this recall embarrassment.

 

[4Tran]

Nah they ain’t clever like that. The DPP isn’t throwing the legal books at 馆长 because after trying Ko and seeing the fiasco it’s caused they’ve started to understand that doing more of this shenanigans against popular TPP aligned figures is just going to backfire harder on them. They’re already in damage control mode with this recall embarrassment.

Taiwanese politics is painful to follow, but if you've been paying attention, Lai Ching-te and the DPP has put all their attention on the recall elections this year. It's been bad enough that they've been accused of ignoring Taiwan's other issues. They simply don't have the energy to do anything big brained right now.

Although, I will posit that a move towards reunification is more likely to come from the DPP (or even TPP) than from the KMT. It's just akin to how Nixon was the one to go to China.

 

[latenlazy]

Taiwanese politics is painful to follow, but if you've been paying attention, Lai Ching-te and the DPP has put all their attention on the recall elections this year. It's been bad enough that they've been accused of ignoring Taiwan's other issues. They simply don't have the energy to do anything big brained right now.

Although, I will posit that a move towards reunification is more likely to come from the DPP (or even TPP) than from the KMT. It's just akin to how Nixon was the one to go to China.

I do indeed follow Taiwanese politics. Not surprised the DPP don’t have energy to do anything big brained when their brains are already so little!

I know for a fact from backdoor anecdotes that the KMT has been ready to get reunification over with since Ma’s term. They have just been playing coy to their own public because they’re afraid of inciting backlash given the direction identity politics was headed in Taiwan a decade ago. This current version of the DPP will never contemplate reunification because they are diehard adherents to American hegemony. That part of their politics is branded into their amygdalas.