Artificial Intelligence thread

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oof, LLMs are difficult to monetize. I wonder what happens to all the investments. Some are more vulnerable to dud investment than others. Expect Meta to stop burning cash by end of 2026. GPT will have to improve for Microsoft to continue deals.
You're looking at this the wrong way.

LLMs are difficult to monetize in isolation, but are existential for information technology companies. This is why Big Tech. is so heavily invested in them.

If Google fell behind on LLMs, Open AI could easily dominate search - and thus advertisement, marketing, etc. All the services that literally prints money for Google and which allows them to rent seek globally. It's all about the control of information. People will not use traditional search if they could get a LLM to go out & get that information for them, complete with sources & concise summaries; and when that becomes the new normal, then all advertisement will need to go to the LLM platform, not traditional search.

Think of LLMs not as a new revenue source, primarily, but as new table stakes for existing information technology companies. It is a threat for those who fall behind, not a benefit for those who are in the lead. It's not like embedding Gemini in Google Search will drastically increase advertisement revenue. But not embedding Gemini in Google Search risks drastically decreasing advertisement revenue as advertisers move to LLM search providers.

Disruption is the name of the game. It's a "keep up or get out" situation. This is also why one of my hopes for the LLM industry in China is that Baidu gets displaced by a better Chinese company - the opportunity will definitely be there if Baidu falls behind, which is likely since they've been soft for a long time.
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member

Advancement in AI will pose risks to both India and China, but for very different reasons​

Jason Hsu of Rayliant Global Advisors says that India will be most susceptible to being replaced by AI due to its huge 'call center' industry. He also discusses China's deflation challenges and how AI can exacerbate it if the government does not step in with supply side reforms.

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tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
You're looking at this the wrong way.

LLMs are difficult to monetize in isolation, but are existential for information technology companies. This is why Big Tech. is so heavily invested in them.

If Google fell behind on LLMs, Open AI could easily dominate search - and thus advertisement, marketing, etc. All the services that literally prints money for Google and which allows them to rent seek globally. It's all about the control of information. People will not use traditional search if they could get a LLM to go out & get that information for them, complete with sources & concise summaries; and when that becomes the new normal, then all advertisement will need to go to the LLM platform, not traditional search.

Think of LLMs not as a new revenue source, primarily, but as new table stakes for existing information technology companies. It is a threat for those who fall behind, not a benefit for those who are in the lead. It's not like embedding Gemini in Google Search will drastically increase advertisement revenue. But not embedding Gemini in Google Search risks drastically decreasing advertisement revenue as advertisers move to LLM search providers.

Disruption is the name of the game. It's a "keep up or get out" situation. This is also why one of my hopes for the LLM industry in China is that Baidu gets displaced by a better Chinese company - the opportunity will definitely be there if Baidu falls behind, which is likely since they've been soft for a long time.
I agree with you completely regarding threat to search. But Here is the problem. If LLM is already consolidating all the answers then why would anyone click into any of the links provided by Google search? Their biggest revenue sources is promoted links getting clicked.

LLM also levels the playing field in search so instead of searching in Google people will just ask whatever llm they prefer. Even more loss of revenue.

I don't think it will that easy to put ads on llm answers either.
 

Hyper

Junior Member
Registered Member
I agree with you completely regarding threat to search. But Here is the problem. If LLM is already consolidating all the answers then why would anyone click into any of the links provided by Google search? Their biggest revenue sources is promoted links getting clicked.

LLM also levels the playing field in search so instead of searching in Google people will just ask whatever llm they prefer. Even more loss of revenue.

I don't think it will that easy to put ads on llm answers either.
This is a huge huge problem. LLMs never started with promise of disrupting search. Pivoting to search is desperation. Ad revenue through LLM backed search is dubious and energy spend compared to regular search is massive. A more useful search function that can be backed by LLMs is agentic shopping in e-commerce, food delivery, travel and dining. But I myself am suspicious about AI search.
 

Hyper

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're looking at this the wrong way.

LLMs are difficult to monetize in isolation, but are existential for information technology companies. This is why Big Tech. is so heavily invested in them.

If Google fell behind on LLMs, Open AI could easily dominate search - and thus advertisement, marketing, etc. All the services that literally prints money for Google and which allows them to rent seek globally. It's all about the control of information. People will not use traditional search if they could get a LLM to go out & get that information for them, complete with sources & concise summaries; and when that becomes the new normal, then all advertisement will need to go to the LLM platform, not traditional search.

Think of LLMs not as a new revenue source, primarily, but as new table stakes for existing information technology companies. It is a threat for those who fall behind, not a benefit for those who are in the lead. It's not like embedding Gemini in Google Search will drastically increase advertisement revenue. But not embedding Gemini in Google Search risks drastically decreasing advertisement revenue as advertisers move to LLM search providers.

Disruption is the name of the game. It's a "keep up or get out" situation. This is also why one of my hopes for the LLM industry in China is that Baidu gets displaced by a better Chinese company - the opportunity will definitely be there if Baidu falls behind, which is likely since they've been soft for a long time.
Disruption that costs 10 times more energy. There is no guarantee of ad revenue that could definitely move towards social media for better attention metrics. Bare in mind Baidu never got big because of a app based internet instead of web based internet.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Top 5 open source models are all Chinese according to arena

I don't think it matters that closed models like gpt are scoring 1480 vs qwen at 1428. These scores are so full of uncertainty and bias that there will be some variability anyway and if they are western benchmarks then there will be a bias towards English which will put Chinese models at a disadvantage.

Moreover, China doesn't really have to top when they are spending far less on AI compared to the colossal spending made by US companies. I think Chinsse companies are being efficient and that is the most important part. Its important to spend less but still attain a good enough score. Cause sooner or later this AI bubble will burst and funding will dry out.

Then the real battle for AI will start and efficient Chinese companies will benefit the most.
 
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