Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

tphuang

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my analysis of the export data in July.

Biggest news is probably ICs continued growth. Handset is down quite a bit, probably a continuation of the apple moving more production to India. Again, rare earth by value is down quite a bit YoY, which means whatever they are exporting is lower end.

The coolest part to look at are Ceramics and fertilizers. Things I haven't been looking at, but are all quite important areas.

The former is a good measure of their growth in material science and the latter in chemical industry.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1953794384018940253
 
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tamsen_ikard

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Sinnavuuty said:
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China's nominal GDP growth should be 7-8% but nominal growth has been terrible due to lack of inflation. Nominal growth is actually 4.5%, lower than real growth. This shows deflation in Chinese economy. This is an easily solvable problem with looser monetary policy but they are not doing it.
 
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qwerty3173

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tamsen_ikard said:
China's nominal GDP growth should be 7-8% but nominal growth has been terrible due to lack of inflation. Nominal growth is actually 4.5%, lower than real growth. This shows deflation in Chinese economy. This is an easily solvable problem with looser monetary policy but they are not doing it.
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With the current global economic bubble a looser monetary policy could be disastrous. The current trend is still more money stipends to the public to push up the inflation by a bit.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

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China's current consumption growth is not strong enough, with the root causes being the drag from the real estate sector and insufficient employment. The real estate industry and its upstream and downstream supply chains, which previously absorbed a large amount of employment, have fallen into severe recession. Meanwhile, exports are also being suppressed by tariffs and the outflow of manufacturing industries. Additionally, the excessive length of working hours leaves people with insufficient time for consumption. Recent graduates are reluctant to work in factories, and labour-intensive factories are transitioning to automated facilities. As a result, the manufacturing sector will create fewer jobs in the future. China still has a lot of work to do to achieve its goal of establishing a super domestic economic cycle.
 
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Quan8410

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Nevermore said:
China's current consumption growth is not strong enough, with the root causes being the drag from the real estate sector and insufficient employment. The real estate industry and its upstream and downstream supply chains, which previously absorbed a large amount of employment, have fallen into severe recession. Meanwhile, exports are also being suppressed by tariffs and the outflow of manufacturing industries. Additionally, the excessive length of working hours leaves people with insufficient time for consumption. Recent graduates are reluctant to work in factories, and labour-intensive factories are transitioning to automated facilities. As a result, the manufacturing sector will create fewer jobs in the future. China still has a lot of work to do to achieve its goal of establishing a super domestic economic cycle.
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All boils down to the hyper price-cutting model of competition. In a market where firms tries to lower the price as much as possible as an only way to stay competitive, they will do 996, lower salary and other shit. More companies should aspired to be like Huawei who offer premium stuff. Cheap is good but don't turn it to be your only quality.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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tamsen_ikard said:
China's nominal GDP growth should be 7-8% but nominal growth has been terrible due to lack of inflation. Nominal growth is actually 4.5%, lower than real growth. This shows deflation in Chinese economy. This is an easily solvable problem with looser monetary policy but they are not doing it.
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Which school of economics did you learn this from?
 
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Michael90

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Bellum_Romanum said:
Which school of economics did you learn this from?
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Ahahah...i wonder myself. Lol

On a serious note though, deflation is indeed a bad thing for China or any other country for that matter especially if its sustained for a long period of time. China needs to find way to get out of this sustained deflation loop, where most companies believe they can only compete or stay relevant by lowering prices by as much as possible even to the point of eating into the little profits they made. Its not sustainable and has other multiplier effects on consumption and productivity.
 
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