Didn't we get the first glimpse of the J-20 only at the tail end of 2010 / early 2011, which makes it even more impressive?
Shenyang next gen combat aircraft thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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Didn't we get the first glimpse of the J-20 only at the tail end of 2010 / early 2011, which makes it even more impressive?
Hopefully the J-36 to the southwest and their asssociated CCA-type UCAVs too will have similar progresses towards service entry with the PLAAF, especially considering the "36011" markings on the former.
My optimistic date for introduction was around 2028. Then 2-3 more years to FOC. The J-36 seems like the real ambitious push with its three engines, trench-style exhausts, size, and massive sensor areas. The J-50 and other possible manned or unmanned fighters feel like lower end solutions.
This has nothing to do with waste or deliberate delay. If more mature technology were available, would Shenyang apply it to the F-15T and J-35?
So the J-35's improvements and service entry will be accelerated at the pace you describe? Actually, no. These technologies are not mature.Even today, we can see the changes and instability of the J35. But do you expect Shenyang to have "mature" technology to solve the next generation of fighter jets? I am not so optimistic.
The F-15T is indeed a transitional aircraft, but this transition continues to evolve to this day. There are already two electronic warfare variants and a two-seater. The engine upgrade isn't a significant improvement, as the number of J-15s isn't sufficient to warrant such a large-scale engine replacement. After all, the J-20, J-16, J-10, and J-11 are already waiting in line for the WS-10.The improvements to the J15 just indicate that the J35 is not yet fully ready.
The J16 was never considered solely a JH fighter. The J20's replacement was essentially a twin-engine heavyweight fighter, with the J11 being the unfortunate casualty, and its next-generation development completely frozen. Given the J20's overpowered air superiority fighter attributes, a multi-role fighter with robust air superiority capabilities is a necessary complement, and this is the J16's positioning. If the next-generation fighter (the J36) incorporates electronic warfare and multi-role capabilities, the J16 will also become a casualty.
The same reasoning holds true for the J35's inability to fully replace the J15. Its two medium-sized engines and a medium-sized fighter-like build are not ideal for multi-role combat. The J15's payload capacity effectively compensates for this weakness. This will continue until the J35 proves its payload capacity is sufficient for 99% of missions.
There is no correspondence between the J20 and the J10.
The J-10 has been frozen, with only a small number of productions underway. We're not sure if it's being prepared for export orders.
This is similar to the situation I described: the J-35 is about to enter service, and the J-10 is the sacrificial lamb, or the replacement. Although it's not a one-to-one relationship.The similarity of the missions will allow the Air Force to make a choice。
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If you think like this, you won't ever understand military procurement. Militaries cannot and shouldn't cost optimize to those levels. They aren't private companies. The J-35 provides China with means to rapidly close up the VLO jet disparity with the USA. What would be the cost of waiting 5 more years? Furthermore, existence of a newer platform doesn't make older things nonperforming. That is a weird way to think. You could only argue that something became nonperforming once most of the adversary assets start to overperform it. And even in such cases platforms usually find other niches they do adequately. The J-15T for example. It is not a stop gap solution at all. It will be better for stand-off strikes, buddy tanking, and CMD than the J-35 or a notional J-50T.
Yeah but it's also next gen with stuff like no vertical tail which would require more testing, to say nothing of stuff like variable cycle engine, directed energy weapons, CCA teaming, or such that might be in 6th platforms. Maybe those systems just won't be in first LRIP model just like how J-20 started without WS-10. I just erred on the side of caution and assumed it would take a fairly long time, especially the electronic stuff like CCA teaming which probably requires a long testing period.
If it got to FTTB by like 2032/2033 I wouldn't be very surprised, to me that would represent development going pretty well but nothing crazy. 2030 would already be ahead of schedule in my opinion and represent a best case situation. 2028 would be extremely ahead of schedule, most likely a lot of the 6th gen stuff wouldn't be included so it would be more of a 5.5 gen? It's not like the gen actually has any meaning but like I can't imagine stuff like variable cycle engine being ready by 2028. So I suppose a lot of it depends on how aggressive they actually are with the design and if they decide to start production with interim stuff (like J-20 with Russian engine).
lcloo
Major
IMO, it takes 1 to 2 years after first delivery into service of a new aircraft to achieve IOC, and then another 2-5 years for FOC. How fast to achieve this timeline depends on the intensity of flights per years.
For batch 01 and first aircraft of a new generation of fighter jet, I expect the IOC may take longer than subsequent regiments/brigades. So for the first regiment to receive the first of the 6th gen fighter jet, its IOC might be a bit longer than 1-2 years.
If we accept that the first in-service aircraft is to be delivered in 2030, it's IOC might be 2032 to 2033, and FOC from 2034 to 2038.
Then the question is it worth to produce J35/J35A now because "the 6th jet are to enter sevice around the corner"? The gap between 2025 to 2032 is 7 years, and since quantity is a strength by itself, they have to continue with aircraft procurement until 2032 or whatever the year that the 6th gen achieve IOC. IMO J35A will have at least 10 years active production run to ensure PLAAF continue to have strength in quantity.
For batch 01 and first aircraft of a new generation of fighter jet, I expect the IOC may take longer than subsequent regiments/brigades. So for the first regiment to receive the first of the 6th gen fighter jet, its IOC might be a bit longer than 1-2 years.
If we accept that the first in-service aircraft is to be delivered in 2030, it's IOC might be 2032 to 2033, and FOC from 2034 to 2038.
Then the question is it worth to produce J35/J35A now because "the 6th jet are to enter sevice around the corner"? The gap between 2025 to 2032 is 7 years, and since quantity is a strength by itself, they have to continue with aircraft procurement until 2032 or whatever the year that the 6th gen achieve IOC. IMO J35A will have at least 10 years active production run to ensure PLAAF continue to have strength in quantity.
The inauguration is going to happen before 2030. When the industrial base reaches maturity, it doesn't take long like the J20.
they will test the subsystem simultaneously and rigorously 365 day 24/7. It gives enough time to determine if it is good or not.
They can also use machines to test if the subsystem is good without human inspection, similar to how they inspect the high speed trains. Faster and more thorough inspection process compared to a human inspection
they will test the subsystem simultaneously and rigorously 365 day 24/7. It gives enough time to determine if it is good or not.
They can also use machines to test if the subsystem is good without human inspection, similar to how they inspect the high speed trains. Faster and more thorough inspection process compared to a human inspection
Going from J-10 to J-20 is as much as a gap as J-20 to J-36/50. I think it is a fitting parallel, except China today is in a better position to breakthrough next generation technology than back then.
I'm not confident in the conclusion that gap between J-10 and J-20 is the same as the gap between J-20 and J-36/50 and thus since China is at a more advanced state of development today that gap will be made up faster. Technology doesn't advance in a linear predictable manner and since a lot of the modules don't actually exist right now nobody really knows how much work it will take to realize them.