2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
Well, if you compare the targets of NK and Iran they are the same : preserve independence.
however it is quite hard to argue about that the surroundings of Iran is waaaay more complicated than for NK.
Example , Turkey and SA has magnitude more freedom of decision than Japan and SK .
and they are just the top of the iceberg.
My point is not what the calculations showing, but rather it is next to impossible to calculate the results if Iran has nuke.
I am kinda surprised how the Saudis get a pass considering them and the Emiratis, on the behalf of Israel, have been the main source of instability in the Middle East and Africa for the last 20 or so years. Gulf backed salafists have been the ones responsible for Libya, Syria, ETIM and pretty much almost every attack in the West and Asia pertaining to islamic terrorism, as well.
The last time Iran was involved in something like that, outside of the conflict surrounding Israel in its own region, was the Argentina bombings and I still have my doubts about it not being a false flag given how little sense it made then and now.
Last edited:
I don't think going nuclear is going to help Iran much. Israel is also nuclear, but that didn't stop Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iran from launching missiles. Iran basically caused utter destruction on Israel.
Russia is also Nuclear. That didn't stop Ukraine, a non-nuclear state from launching strikes against its capital, oil facilities, strategic bombers and so on.
India was also Bold enough to hit Pakistan in its Capital and military HQ. Pakistan was bold enough to strike back hard at India in Delhi too. Both Nuclear powers.
So, recent events have shown having Nukes is not a guarantee that you will not be attacked with conventional weapons on the most sensitive of targets.
Iran's issue is preventing Israel and US from attacking Iran and trying to destabilize the government and destroy the country's important facilities. And having nukes is not going to stop that.
But going for Nukes pretty much ensures the entire world will treat Iran as pariah including its biggest supporters such as Russia and China.
I don't think Iran wants to be isolated like North Korea. So, it cannot go for a nuke when the benefit is not there.
I wouldn't say pariah, but yeah, China and Russia would prefer Iran not have nukes.
If you are one of 5 people in a town of 200 with a concealed carry permit, you have no incentive to let anyone else have a permit. That detracts from your own safety and influence.
If you are one of 5 people in a town of 200 with a concealed carry permit, you have no incentive to let anyone else have a permit. That detracts from your own safety and influence.
China and Russian sanctions on Iran is what forced Iran to negotiating table for JCPOA. So, Iran mainly cares about not getting cutoff from the global south including China. I am 100% sure China will again put heavy sanctions on Iran to stop it from getting nukes.
Nuclear proliferation is an existential threat for all great powers. No nuclear state wants another nuclear state.
You need not feel surprised, friend. You probably know the "answer to this" already.
Who were these salafists — backed by "donors" from the GCC — fighting and what were they looking to achieve in Libya, Syria and China?
From the perspective of the US, the problem with Iran isn't that they sponsor terrorists or arm insurgents, but the wrong terrorists and insurgents.