Miscellaneous News

[horse]

I feel like China has an Iran disease. They keep wanting to compromise, they keep want to just be at peace when your enemy wants to utterly murder you. What US has been doing to China with the export controls is literally economic murder and China hasn't done anything proportional. This peace disease will surprise China again and again in this fight against US empire.

You do not understand something.

The Chinese are like that, because they view the American threats as being empty when it comes to China.

The American politician who is anti-China is using a barking dog strategy. There is no merit in that.

Simply put, China is not afraid of a barking dog, or afraid of the big bad wolf.

Who cares.

Furthermore, the recent American experience in Asia, the Korean War and Vietnam War, that still factors into calculations today.

It is what old man Nixon a long time ago. If we look around Indo-China, then we realize all our problems are sourced from China. Later, Nixon went to China.

We could say that today, if we look around the world, then we realize much of US problems has a strong China backing behind it.

Trump, unlike Nixon, did not seek completely peaceful terms with the Chinese with the trade war.

But, that is why I like President Trump.

President Trump does not use a barking dog strategy with China. He tries to bully but if that does not work, he backs off.

That is easier and more productive a leader to deal with, compared to Biden, Obama, or dubya Bush.

 

[delfer]

You do not understand something.

The Chinese are like that, because they view the American threats as being empty when it comes to China.

The American politician who is anti-China is using a barking dog strategy. There is no merit in that.

Simply put, China is not afraid of a barking dog, or afraid of the big bad wolf.

Who cares.

Furthermore, the recent American experience in Asia, the Korean War and Vietnam War, that still factors into calculations today.

It is what old man Nixon a long time ago. If we look around Indo-China, then we realize all our problems are sourced from China. Later, Nixon went to China.

We could say that today, if we look around the world, then we realize much of US problems has a strong China backing behind it.

Trump, unlike Nixon, did not seek completely peaceful terms with the Chinese with the trade war.

But, that is why I like President Trump.

President Trump does not use a barking dog strategy with China. He tries to bully but if that does not work, he backs off.

That is easier and more productive a leader to deal with, compared to Biden, Obama, or dubya Bush.

Emphasis on the Korean War. America still hasn't forgotten that, and it likely influences every decision they make regarding China. It was one of the very few times America was so heavily beaten, and the fact that it was done by China when it was arguably at one of it's very weakest points likely freaks them out.

 

[ansy1968]

@tamsen_ikard bro a Chinese proverb for the day courtesy of Sun Tzu

"appear weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak"

I know you're not Chinese but I hope this proverb will help you understand how to become one, my good friend @Sardaukar20 who is a Malaysian fully conceptualized this idea, its not about race or color of the skin, its the values and philosophy behind it.

 

[doggydogdo]

While it may be difficult to quantify manufacturing output using a single metric, 4x industrial output sounds exaggerated to me. The most widely cited figures for global manufacturing, which measures industrial value add, puts China at just over 30% of the global total and the US at around 15%. During WW2, US had more than 5x the Japanese GDP and 10x the industrial output. US produced over 15x more steel, 10x more coal. Most importantly, the US produced the majority of the world's oil at the time, while Japan was critically hamstrung by lack of access to oil. I would argue that Japan's oil shortage in WW2 was a more significant limiting factor to Japan's warfighting and industrial capabilities than rare earths would be for the US today.

Value added doesn't equal to output. Chinese competition has driven down the "value" of Chinese industrial sector even when outputs have grown, China can often make things cheaper than you can get the raw materials in the US because China is just so much more efficient.

Even if there's just a small correlation between industrial robots installed vs industrial output, China would still demolish any other country in terms of output.

 

[ansy1968]

Emphasis on the Korean War. America still hasn't forgotten that, and it likely influences every decision they make regarding China. It was one of the very few times America was so heavily beaten, and the fact that it was done by China when it was arguably at one of it's very weakest points likely freaks them out.

How can you blame them, a peasant army able to route the most modern and fully equip mechanized army with just a rifle and even a shovel.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

China produces roughly 10-15 times more steel than the US, per year. That's where industry truly counts. Not just having a lot of businesses (which, in America, mostly just resell Chinese goods, anyway), not GDP that is inflated by higher costs and pricing, regardless of whether counting nominally or by PPP. But real, heavy, vast production and supply chains. Europe and the US think that if they have a large GDP, they can win wars, but you can't win a war just because your factory of Rolls-Royce cars pulls in more money than ten Chinese foundries that produce millions of tons of steel.

I wasn't referring to GDP. Going by GDP, China would only have a 1.3-1.4x advantage. I was citing manufacturing value add, for which China makes up around 32% of global output - while US makes up 15% and the G7 combined just under 30%. Using that figure as the benchmark for manufacturing capacity would give China just over a 2x advantage.

China's steel production is more than twice that of modern India, Japan, WW2 USA, WW2 USSR, and WW2 Nazi Germany combined, and the latter three countries were fully mobilized and operating at peak production during the greatest war in human history, while China is operating in peace-time. And steel is a massive factor in war.

While no doubt steel is important in war, steel is unlikely to be the bottleneck for military production. WW2 era militaries were much more steel intensive than modern militaries, yet like you mentioned, nations in WW2 produced far less steel than China does today.

And of course we musn't forget population size. China's population outnumbers the US by more than four times, whereas the US had a population advantage of about two times relative to Japan in WW2. Then there's land size, which Japan was totally lacking in, whereas China enjoys a massive advantage in that regard, and that's without even factoring potential extra land usage granted by Russia.

Population is already factored in when discussing industrial potential. With regards to land size, that is yet another disadvantage Japan had in WW2 that the US would not have today, as China and the US are roughly equal in land size. At the end of the day, there is no doubt that China enjoys a significant advantage in industrial potential and manufacturing capability over the US. If I had to quantify, I'd give China a 2.5x-3x advantage. A very sizable advantage indeed, but still significantly smaller than the advantage the US enjoyed over Japan in WW2.

Outside of production, the other most significant advantage China would enjoy in a West Pac scenario is distance. The US, in both WW2 and in any confrontation in the West Pacific, would be at a significant disadvantage due to the tyranny of distance.

 

[fishrubber99]

Hsing GDP and manufacturing value added are just abstractions from real production, ultimately you have to look at what the respective countries are actually able to produce. If you produce less but more expensive steel, that translates into more GDP per kilogram of steel sold vs a country that is able to produce steel at a larger scale for cheaper.

China is able to produce 12x the steel and 10x the number of cars compared to what the US can produce annually, this is a better indicator of the difference in industrial capacity. China also has 10x the manufacturing workforce.

 

[AntiDK]

Civilization: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire​

In this final talk of the "Civilization" course, Jiang Xueqin explains the rise and fall of the American empire.

At the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, America proposed that the dollar should be the world's reserve currency. In return for this "exorbitant privilege," America pledged that its currency could be exchanged for gold. But with America spending exorbitantly to fund the Vietnam War, the Space Race, and the Great Society, countries started to doubt this promise.

After France withdrew all its gold from America, President Nixon announced that the dollar could no longer be converted to gold. To create new demand for the dollar, Nixon visited China, and brought it into the Pax Americana.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, America financialized its economy, which led to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. With Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the supremacy of the USD is more threatened than ever.

In response, America may invade Iran, which would start World War III.

References:
1. Farewell Address of Dwight Eisenhower (Military Industrial Complex)
2. The Peloponnesian War by Thucydides
3. Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley
4. The Open Society by Karl Popper

I apologized if this has been posted since the video is approximately 2 weeks old but It feels like the end of a sick empire and rise of another seems closer than ever.

 

[AndrewS]

I wasn't referring to GDP. Going by GDP, China would only have a 1.3-1.4x advantage. I was citing manufacturing value add, for which China makes up around 32% of global output - while US makes up 15% and the G7 combined just under 30%. Using that figure as the benchmark for manufacturing capacity would give China just over a 2x advantage.

Remember that value-add numbers use the exchange rate controlled by the Chinese government, which undervalues Chinese output.

For example, take the same Tesla Model 3.
The Chinese price is about half the US price. But it's the same car.

So you have to adjust for Chinese prices with an Industrial or Purchasing Power Parity Index.
On that basis, Chinese industrial production would be adjusted with a doubling, to truly reflect actual output.

That gives China a 4x advantage in industrial production.

---

And this doesn't account for how China has more industrial monopolies (such as rare earths) which would cripple US production. In comparison, China has spent the past decade systematically removing foreign dependencies.

So in the current round of the US-China trade war, we can see the US has lost.

 

[dingyibvs]

Civilization: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire​

In this final talk of the "Civilization" course, Jiang Xueqin explains the rise and fall of the American empire.

At the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, America proposed that the dollar should be the world's reserve currency. In return for this "exorbitant privilege," America pledged that its currency could be exchanged for gold. But with America spending exorbitantly to fund the Vietnam War, the Space Race, and the Great Society, countries started to doubt this promise.

After France withdrew all its gold from America, President Nixon announced that the dollar could no longer be converted to gold. To create new demand for the dollar, Nixon visited China, and brought it into the Pax Americana.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, America financialized its economy, which led to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. With Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the supremacy of the USD is more threatened than ever.

In response, America may invade Iran, which would start World War III.

References:
1. Farewell Address of Dwight Eisenhower (Military Industrial Complex)
2. The Peloponnesian War by Thucydides
3. Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley
4. The Open Society by Karl Popper

I apologized if this has been posted since the video is approximately 2 weeks old but It feels like the end of a sick empire and rise of another seems closer than ever.

Dude's been blowing up. I started watching just a few days ago when he had like 30k subs, last night it went up to 130k and tonight 230k. I've watched a few of his lectures, he's got some pretty interesting perspectives.