US will be lucky to have air superiority 500 miles west of Hawaii if they can't operate from Guam or anything west of that.I’m not denying that, they definitely have, but fighting Japan along with the US makes it alot more difficult for China to win, they likely won’t be able to strike US mainland but it’s possible but they can strike Guam though with the DF-26 what they have around 250+ of according to US estimates so likely more. And possibly the CJ-20 if the H-6k is further out of mainland China what I find unlikely unless China has air superiority over the first island chain. I didn’t mention South Korea since South Korea is unlikely to join and would probably not allow US bases, and I didn’t mention the Philippines because their not a threat to China at all besides the US weapons there
Do you know how many sorties you can run if you have to run tankers from Hawaii? lol
And that's assuming US calls it quits within a few days, if it turns into a full scale war China won't just strike Guam, China will take Guam and island hop until US is entirely contained to CONUS, with thousands of miles of water between it and the nearest island.