2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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GulfLander

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935604930623967249
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Some guys in twitter were analysing the events, and they seem to be "connecting" the opening of new rail line from CN to lran on May2025, as a curious coincidence of the b0mbing in jun2025(?). They say the new freight rail line could bypass chokepoints(?)

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(If so, could the lndia-Pak May 2025 conflict also hav similarity? Cpec/Gwadar port/ lranPak Gas pipeline)
 
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GulfLander

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GulfLander

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plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
iewgnem said:
A couple of thoughts:
- If Iran can precisely hit targets in heavily defended Tel Aviv with a small number of missiles, it implies they can also hit any other military target anywhere in Isreal, that means airfields, hangers, control towers, fuel depots, etc. Isreal put a censor order on all military facilities, but physics and intent doesn't change.
- As already pointed out before, Isreal is arguably much more defended than American bases, which means if US were to jump in with standoff airstrikes on Iran and make their forces legelimiate targets, it makes any ground invasion actually impossible as they'd have no ability to stage any troops without coming under attack
- Everyone's assuming IAF's operation hasn't been affected because nobody's seen footage of missile strike on their bases, but it's known that Iran can hit them and it's known Isreal is strictly censoring anything relating to them, so the assumption might not be as safe as people think.
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One factor to consider is that Israeli air bases are likely much better protected than their cities, both in terms of density of interceptors, as well as the quality of the SAM systems present.

Indeed, the spamming of Iron Dome interceptors may well be intended to help cover for the lack of more advanced systems deployed to defend Israeli cities.

I would expect that perhaps the reason for why Iran is focusing its attacks so much against Israeli cities instead of air bases is that the BDA from the earlier salvos showed poor penetration against Israeli air bases.

As such, Iran is hitting Israeli cities to get more bang for their missiles for the cameras; deal serious economic and industrial pain to Israel, as well build up public pressure to end the city raids; potentially even Iran deliberately firing small missile salvos to give the impression of them weakening. All of which are aimed to try to get Israel to redeploy some of its air defences from air bases to their cities. Once that happens, Iran can launch a massive salvo at Israeli air bases seeking to deal serious damage to their air power.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
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plawolf said:
Nothing remotely as sophisticated or complicated.

Those are Iron Dome interceptors, which have a minimum change of actually successfully intercepting a ballistic missile.

Even the Israelis realise this, which is why the Iron Dome is firing in a spread pattern and in multiple waves. Such firings are essentially performative, with putting up a show being the primary objective instead of expecting to actually hit anything, so in essence isn’t that different from Iraqi or Iranian AAA blasting away wildly into the night sky.

Indeed, if it does transpire later that Iran can still fire much larger waves of missiles but is choosing not to do so in favour of small scale launches, one of the reasons may well be that Iron Dome intercept rates increases the more ballistic missiles you fire, especially at a single or closely packed group of targets. It’s just maths and probability, if the Israelis are just spamming Iron Dome missiles into the air, the more incoming ballistic missiles the more Iron Dome interceptors in the air, and the greater the odds one of the Interceptors comes close enough to a ballistic missile to be able to actually intercept it.

Other factors could also influence Iranian decisions to fire smaller salvos, for example, smaller salvos means fewer launchers, which might significantly reduce the risk of launchers being detected and destroyed by Israeli air power.
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Tamir has the ability to perform interception maneuvers during the missile's ascent phase. We did not see this in any of the interceptor missiles launched, because it must be the Israeli ABM boosters accelerating to gain altitude to attempt interception.

Keep in mind that the Fattah-1 is a hypersonic missile equipped with a MaRV that follows a depressed trajectory, so its detection is late. This stands out over the radars of the Israeli ABM systems that perform early warning and detection much later when the Fattah-1 is already approaching. Only then, the ABM system is activated. That is why we see the Iranian MRBM missiles arriving and the Israeli ABMs still being launched and gaining altitude. Since the fire control radar of the ABM systems cannot pick up the interception position because of the late detection and the pop-up maneuver of the Fattah-1's MaRV, they self-destruct as we saw in the image that was already posted here.

Iranian engineers said the Fattah could not be intercepted, and that claim seems to be true considering all the videos we have seen of the Fattah-1 being used since True Promise I. All of the interceptions appear to be of the older missiles like the Emad.

It is worth remembering that the Fattah-1 is not even Iran's most advanced missile, the Fattah-2 is the most advanced missile and then there is the Kheibar Shekan-2.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
One factor to consider is that Israeli air bases are likely much better protected than their cities, both in terms of density of interceptors, as well as the quality of the SAM systems present.

Indeed, the spamming of Iron Dome interceptors may well be intended to help cover for the lack of more advanced systems deployed to defend Israeli cities.

I would expect that perhaps the reason for why Iran is focusing its attacks so much against Israeli cities instead of air bases is that the BDA from the earlier salvos showed poor penetration against Israeli air bases.

As such, Iran is hitting Israeli cities to get more bang for their missiles for the cameras; deal serious economic and industrial pain to Israel, as well build up public pressure to end the city raids; potentially even Iran deliberately firing small missile salvos to give the impression of them weakening. All of which are aimed to try to get Israel to redeploy some of its air defences from air bases to their cities. Once that happens, Iran can launch a massive salvo at Israeli air bases seeking to deal serious damage to their air power.
Click to expand...
The largest IAF bases are to the south, away from Israel's layered ABM system that is focused on defending Haifa and major cities like Tel Aviv
 
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