2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
The issue is the pro-US types always talk about a pure bombing campaign rather than an invasion. They might talk themselves into this, thanks to MEK lobbying.

Iran surviving politically intact after being razed to the ground can't be seen as a victory unless they do get the nukes, which is a taller order if the US does provide the bombers and bunker busters.
Israel's unprovoked attack and open threats against civilians just ensured Iran's political stability, that's boat has sailed.
If US and Israel needs to target Iranian cities, it means they can't target Iranian military, which also means, being 10x bigger, Iran will have razed Israel to the ground long before they can do so to Iran.
Reality is neither side has the ability to level the other and it's not in neither sides interest to try, not that it means people always act in their interest.
At end of the day US and Israel has far more to lose than Iran: Israel has no strategic depth, everything is concentrated in a few cities, while Iran is both poorer and larger. For the US they have their global empire to worry about, they know they can't lose it for Iran, while Iran is already fighting their main enemy.

Iran's goal should be to drag this into a war of attrition, and so far they're succeeding.
 

texx1

Junior Member
IAEA chief said in a BBC interview that underground centrifuges at Natanz nuclear facility are likely badly damaged or destroyed due to the sudden lost of power. Iran may have just lost a significant part of its enrichment program.

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Likely all machines at Iran's main enrichment plant 'severely damaged', IAEA chief says

It is very likely all the roughly 15,000 centrifuges operating at Iran's biggest uranium enrichment plant at Natanz were badly damaged or destroyed because of a power cut caused by an Israeli strike, the U.N. nuclear watchdog chief told the BBC on Monday.

"Our assessment is that with this sudden loss of external power, in great probability the centrifuges have been severely damaged if not destroyed altogether," Grossi said in an interview with the BBC.

"I think there has been damage inside," he said, going further than in an update to an exceptional meeting of his agency's 35-nation Board of Governors hours earlier.

Power cuts pose a threat to the fragile, finely balanced machines that spin at extremely high speeds.
 

another505

New Member
Registered Member
Im not an expert on USA laws, but what is the expected steps that USA needed to get into a war? Does it need congress approval? Or is Trump going to call it a special military operation and get around congress?
 

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'll add an assessment on the possibility of "Regime change" by using long range bombardment alone. It could happen within the existing Iranian power structure, it certainly would not be occur in the form of popular uprising as some would imagine, at least not long after the dust have settled.

What Israel and now, the United States is committing is undisputed terror bombing of Iranian urban centers, no matter how you spin this, this an attack on the Iranian people and Iran as a whole. What ever anti-government feeling among the public would be fractured by this and put on hold for the time being, there would be extremists like those who chose to fight for Iraq when Iraq invaded, but they'll be a reviled minority. Even on broadly anti-government websites this consensus is beginning to form.

Opinion of Israel and United States would be severely soured by this event, even overtaking the dislike for the unpopular incumbent government for a few years. Due to this, any new leadership would likely harbor deep resentment towards Israel + United States despite outwardly favoring appeasement just to get the bombing to stop.

What is curious about this situation and almost everything Israel involves itself it, is that despite top western political leaders marching in lockstep to offer unconditional support for Israel. Pretty much everyone outside the Evangelical, Zionists of the US, and frankly every single person outside of the west recognize it as an act of unprovoked Israeli aggression. This frankly embarrassing dissonance between the actions of Western leaders and the popular opinion of their people + the world at large, will only further discredit the "liberal, ruled based world order" they claim to lead.

This mental subservience that infects the western political leadership really should be better studied, that they are willingly to support a liability the size of Israel at the cost of their own credibility.
 
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Im not an expert on USA laws, but what is the expected steps that USA needed to get into a war? Does it need congress approval? Or is Trump going to call it a special military operation and get around congress?
Nothing. Is pretty much like Trump with tariffs. A ground invasion will require congressional approval.
 
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