2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
sequ said:
That's a huge gamble. The IRGC has lost their most influential positions to the Artesh (they're now in control) and Khamenei is isolated and on the run. Very difficult to take back control from this.
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I do agree but if they launch 100 or so everyday they will run out quickly, in war you launch massive waves than slow down so your able to be in it for the long haul. Thats probably why we’re seeing less missiles launched
 
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delfer

New Member
Registered Member
Let’s wait a couple hours and see if Iran does anything. The past few days they would usually start hitting heavily around this time of day (or rather, night), so we’ll see.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Its funny to see people here oscillate between depression during daytime, when Israel attacks vs joy at night time when Iran attacks.

We have seen massive amount of Iranian missiles getting through in Israel. So, it's pretty obvious they have hit significant targets inside Israel too.

So I don't understand the complaint really. What is that you guys want. Yes, Iran had intelligence failures which has cost them a lot. But they also have huge strategic depth and hit they can swallow.

Soviet Union also blunder in the beginning of ww2 and they lost millions of people and infrastructure and everything. But they still won in the end due to their bigger population, bigger strategic depth.

What is the goal here for Iran? Its to survive Israel onslaught and cause enough damage to have peace. That's it.

Their nuclear plants are still intact which was the primary goal of Israel. So every thing else Israel is hitting is completely pointless.

What is Israel losing is a functioning economy. They are also losing their factories, their ports, their universities.

Ultimately Iran can take 10 times more blows than what Israel can take.

The moment Iranian population galvanized behind the government, this war was won by Iran. Nothing else matters now. I don't know how you guys expect so called regime change to happen in Iran because it ain't happening via any kind of uprising or coup. So, unless US and Israel invades Iran, which they can't, they can't do regime change.
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When I saw liberal Iranian women with no headscarves call for nukes, I took it as a sign that the Iranian government has sufficient popular support to drag this out in the air phase.

If this was a war game and I was playing Iran, I would draw the line at 1 thing: verifiable full ceasefire for full ceasefire, no other conditions, give up nothing else. That means in the meantime, hit as hard as possible to make a full ceasefire for full ceasefire look as attractive as possible.

That would be a win at this point and allow Iran to withdraw from the NPT, kick out or imprison the inspectors, and conduct a nuclear test - within days. That is the only long term winning play. Everything else would just allow Iran to be bled by 1000 cuts and time for the media to twist it to make Iran look like the aggressor. This is the only time where Iran going nuclear would be acceptable in the court of regional public opinion.
 
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Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
US/Israel will give Iran an ultimatum. To give up it's nuclear program or face destruction.

If Iran refuses, then I very much see the possibility of US joining this war. Israel has degraded Iran enough that it should be easy.

Iran has no Air Force. Their AD are being picked apart from both within by infiltrated forces and by SEAD/DEAD ops. It's only a matter of time before IAF achieve Air Supremacy over Iran. Right now they have Air Superiority on the western and some central parts of Iran.

Iran can't win this war because they never focused on improving the most important thing that matters in modern military, their Air Force. All they cared about were ballistic missiles. They also viewed their AD as more important than their Air Force.

I'll give Pakistan credit for not falling into this same mistake and constantly working to improve their Air Power.

Iran is rightfully paying the price for their negligent military moves. They can inflict damage to Israel but will still lose.
 
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abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
Iran has a 1GWe civilian nuclear reactor at Bushehr and they are building two more.
But yeah, the enrichment was clearly developed with dual use in mind. Japan did the same. Do you know Japan has uranium centrifuges? And Japan is building a plutonium separation plant with the help of the French.
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Yes, I do know, Japan is really a nuclear brink state. Iran obviously isn't... Or, better, we shall see soon...
 
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abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
obj 705A said:
it's highly unlikely that they can build a nuke now after having their nuclear facilities severely degraded. also you can't produce nukes when such facilities are under constant bombing. personaly I believe the window to produce a nuke has been closed.
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Who knows what Iran might have or not have underground...? But I presume that if they really have a bomb ready, they would test it as soon as possible.
 
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