2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Indian missiles were raining on Pakistani air bases and significant areas as well. Israel also saw Iranian missiles hitting it. So, nuclear weapon is not a guaranteed protection against Conventional strikes. Yes, its a protection against existential invasion, but not much else. No one has the brutality or extremism to launch a Nuclear strike on another country's civillian population as a retaliation against conventional attacks.
No, nuclear weapons are a guarantee from getting one-sidedly demolished with conventional weapons as long as you don't institute a no-first-use policy. If you can keep up with conventional fighting, do. If not, a nuclear warning will back them off. Israel would not dare do this if Iran could launch nukes into Tel Aviv.
Iran needed the nukes as a deterrent against US invasions in the past, when war on terror was in full swing and it seemed like Iran was next. But US has lost its will and ability to invade the middle east any more. So, Iran's need for nukes is much less now.
Oh Iran needs nukes much less now that it's getting set on fire by Israel?
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tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Its funny. Chinese weapons not that long ago were seen as cheap second rate weapons acquired by guys who were either enemies of the west or simply too poor to afford real weapons. Now they are somehow a gamechanger.

As the other poster mentioned, I kinda get while China is hesitant to sell them to Iran. Who knows how much of that stuff would all get leaked out to Israel and the west. Got to do due diligence on your customers as well.
Pakistan has a much better relations with US if China worried about their tech leaking out.

Its not about tech. Supplying advanced weapon to Iran will be seen as a direct challenge against Gulf Arabs. China still considers the Gulf Arabs and other sunni govt in the middle east to be more important economically and as a supplier of oil.

Another important consideration is that China also doesn't like to offend the west. They are still bowing down and parroting how China does not want to replace or challenge the US. Its cause China still focuses on gaining more strength rather than fighting the US head on for a power struggle.

If China decides to truly fight the US and the west, they will be funding not just Iran, but also trying to topple any pro-western government with funding, insurgency and even their own expeditionary force. Kinda like what Soviet Union did. But China is not at that stage yet.
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Israel would make it out to be a Cuban missile crisis if Iran got chinese weaponry China can't be bothered with that

Cuban missile crisis happened because US is able blockade Cuba. Israel + US would not be able to do so since China has plenty of routes leading into Iran.

Fundamental problem is Iran cannot be trusted. They have way too many traitors running arround in their country it is quite ridiculous, even if they manage to clean house their geopolitical standing is also not trust worthy, always swaying back and forth between the east and the west, with powerful pro-west faction always able to torpedo any attempt to solidify corporation with China
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Pakistan has Chinese weapons, while Iran's requests for purchases get turned down by China. That's the difference
Where is that 400 billion agreement again???

Iran should sit down, and understand that in order to get things, you need to give some things as well

If you think free help is going to rain down, China will have to have very big upside to compensate for sufferimg a big diplomatic and reputational hit with the West and the Gulf Countries for Iran.
A few billion here and there is not enough.

Iran knows what it has to do, that it doesn't want to do, it's ok. Just don't cry for China to protect you or whatever afterwards.
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Pakistan has a much better relations with US if China worried about their tech leaking out.

Its not about tech. Supplying advanced weapon to Iran will be seen as a direct challenge against Gulf Arabs. China still considers the Gulf Arabs and other sunni govt in the middle east to be more important economically and as a supplier of oil.

Another important consideration is that China also doesn't like to offend the west. They are still bowing down and parroting how China does not want to replace or challenge the US. Its cause China still focuses on gaining more strength rather than fighting the US head on for a power struggle.

If China decides to truly fight the US and the west, they will be funding not just Iran, but also trying to topple any pro-western government with funding, insurgency and even their own expeditionary force. Kinda like what Soviet Union did. But China is not at that stage yet.
But they haven't so far, not in a huge significant anyway. Maybe that will change in the future if relations sour. But at least for now Pakistan held onto their word for most part. Trust and reliance is actually quite a rare commodity right now. I would actually argue thats even more important than how big or inherently strong a country is when choosing who to invest in.

Iran on the other hand can promise everything but its worthless if they cannot effectively enforce it even if they had the best intentions.
 
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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its funny. Chinese weapons not that long ago were seen as cheap second rate weapons acquired by guys who were either enemies of the west or simply too poor to afford real weapons. Now they are somehow a gamechanger.

As the other poster mentioned, I kinda get while China is hesitant to sell them to Iran. Who knows how much of that stuff would all get leaked out to Israel and the west. Got to do due diligence on your customers as well.

china can sell J11B or JF thunder, some old equipment. anything better than J10c is off limit
 
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