China's Space Program Thread II

[taxiya]

That has been the idea for large scale space industrialization for decades IMO

Idea remains a fiction until necessary knowledge and technology becomes available. Flying in air was an idea and also a fiction for thousands of years. People proposing that idea a thousand years ago aren't visionary, smart or respectful. Only people who made it a reality deserve being praised, those people in the early 1900s.

My point is that I don't object ideas, but I don't have high regards to ideas without firm fundation on the ground, know how to walk before run, get to moon before mars, don't imagine a pie before having flour and water.

The very reason that US' moon landing program getting continiously delayed to the point of probably behind China is because US has always confused idea with reachable reality. Zumwalt destroyer is another perfect example, it is doable but not at the time it was evisioned. Chinese are smart to have feet on the ground.

 

[ENTED64]

Yeah I think the talk of large scale manufacturing in space is a bit premature, we are not particularly close to that level of technology/industry built up in space. That's a 10+ years down the road thing at the very least not a this year thing so it's pretty speculative.

 

[AndrewJ]

I thought some people were saying space starship is not really viable per se?

Care to explain why?

 

[by78]

High-resolution images from the launch of Yaogan-40 batch 02, which was carried out by a Long March 6A. This was the 574th flight of the Long March series.

 

[escobar]

TJS-17, Satellite patch: Vaiśravaṇa, King of the north and the one hears everything/Umbrella as his symbolic weapon"
TJS-16, Satellite patch: Dhṛtarāṣṭra, King of the east and the one who upholds the realm/Pipa as his symbolic weapon"
TJS-15, Satellite patch: Virūpākṣa, King of the west and the one who sees all/Snake as his symbolic weapon"
View attachment 149811View attachment 149812View attachment 149813

TJS-19 launched, Satellite patch: Virūḍhaka, King of the south and the one who causes good growth of roots/Sword as his symbolic weapon"

 

[Xiongmao]

Care to explain why?

Here are some reasons off the top of my head:

1. Takes 10+ Starship launches to refuel a tanker in LEO so that another Starship can take this fuel and complete the manned lunar mission. Not exactly an elegant solution compared to the 2 launches of China or the single launch of Apollo is it?
2. This thing is tall and slim, totally what the Apollo engineers avoided at all costs and it decreases the room for error in nailing the landing. You don't get a perfect vertical landing, and everybody dies.
3. If it lands sucessfully, the astronauts have to descend 50m or so to the lunar surface and need some kind of lift system, more things to go wrong. Imagine if the lift gets stuck because of lunar dust, and everybody dies.
4. No restartable engine, like on the Starship, has ever been tested from the lunar surface, its all super-reliable hypergolics baby.
5. Most aspects of the Apollo spacecraft had multiple redundant systems many layers deep. Looking at SpaceX, they just fly by the seat of their pants. However, any unexpected system malfunctions 200,000 miles from Earth, its not just simply back to the drawing board, no, everybody dies and the program will be cancelled. They don't have the same culture as Apollo did.

I'm sure people who know about spacecraft could give a dozen more reasons.

 

[iewgnem]

Care to explain why?

Stainless steel upper stage invoke massive penalty in payload to orbit, using stainless steel for 1st/booster stage also invoke penalty but to a much smaller degree which is why SRBs casing are steel. Just plug numbers into the rocket equation and you can see why.

Just like BEV vs PHEV vs Hydrogen, or solar vs nuclear, China always try everything and never bet on winners, tracking stainless steel construction is expected, but I wouldn't bet on China using stainless steel for upper stages.

 

[BoraTas]

Here are some reasons off the top of my head:

1. Takes 10+ Starship launches to refuel a tanker in LEO so that another Starship can take this fuel and complete the manned lunar mission. Not exactly an elegant solution compared to the 2 launches of China or the single launch of Apollo is it?
2. This thing is tall and slim, totally what the Apollo engineers avoided at all costs and it decreases the room for error in nailing the landing. You don't get a perfect vertical landing, and everybody dies.
3. If it lands sucessfully, the astronauts have to descend 50m or so to the lunar surface and need some kind of lift system, more things to go wrong. Imagine if the lift gets stuck because of lunar dust, and everybody dies.
4. No restartable engine, like on the Starship, has ever been tested from the lunar surface, its all super-reliable hypergolics baby.
5. Most aspects of the Apollo spacecraft had multiple redundant systems many layers deep. Looking at SpaceX, they just fly by the seat of their pants. However, any unexpected system malfunctions 200,000 miles from Earth, its not just simply back to the drawing board, no, everybody dies and the program will be cancelled. They don't have the same culture as Apollo did.

I'm sure people who know about spacecraft could give a dozen more reasons.

Elon Musk loves attaching messianic goals to its products. The Starlink was supposed to bring internet to the poor areas of Africa for example. Now, its biggest customers are financial corporations, well off American suburbanites and various armed forces... The Starship too is not about Mars or Moon. It is laser focused at delivering many small satellites to LEO.

- Reusable second stage because it is faster to refurbish than produce
- Stainless steel upper stage because half of the vehicle can go barren which decreases the refurbishment costs and time.
- Methane because kerosene leaves soot in the engines. Hydrogen upper stage is avoided to cheapen the launch.

 

[AndrewJ]

TJS-19 launched, Satellite patch: Virūḍhaka, King of the south and the one who causes good growth of roots/Sword as his symbolic weapon"
View attachment 152075

Launch mission success. Marks the 575th flight of CZ series.
TJS-19 will carry out multi-band, high-speed satellite communication technology verification.

Launch Site: Xichang
Time: 2.09 a.m. 13th May (Beijing Time)
Rocket: CZ-3C

Report:

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Launch video:

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[kentchang]

Here are some reasons off the top of my head:

1. Takes 10+ Starship launches to refuel a tanker in LEO so that another Starship can take this fuel and complete the manned lunar mission. Not exactly an elegant solution compared to the 2 launches of China or the single launch of Apollo is it?
2. This thing is tall and slim, totally what the Apollo engineers avoided at all costs and it decreases the room for error in nailing the landing. You don't get a perfect vertical landing, and everybody dies.
3. If it lands sucessfully, the astronauts have to descend 50m or so to the lunar surface and need some kind of lift system, more things to go wrong. Imagine if the lift gets stuck because of lunar dust, and everybody dies.
4. No restartable engine, like on the Starship, has ever been tested from the lunar surface, its all super-reliable hypergolics baby.
5. Most aspects of the Apollo spacecraft had multiple redundant systems many layers deep. Looking at SpaceX, they just fly by the seat of their pants. However, any unexpected system malfunctions 200,000 miles from Earth, its not just simply back to the drawing board, no, everybody dies and the program will be cancelled. They don't have the same culture as Apollo did.

I'm sure people who know about spacecraft could give a dozen more reasons.

Here is the best exposition of SLS I know:

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