Trump 2.0 official thread

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Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mt1701d said:
Even if Trump offers, I don’t think China will simply go for it, the problem is Trump have already done this once with phase 1, they agreed on a deal and Trump went back on it by applying tariffs via another reason.

So unless the deal involves the US giving up the right to apply anymore tariff regardless of the situation I don’t think any deal is likely. Simply opening the economy won’t help the US in general, it will just return us to the status quo, and only benefit the megacorps.

I can see Chinese companies investing in the US, but those will only be companies that are further down in the pecking order, or companies that have full vertical integration so they can adjust supply chains on their own rather than having their chains be held by others.

The whole JV situation is also highly possible, but you will also run into the problem of supply chains unless the US exempt these JVs from the tariffs, it would be pointless to enter a JV to produce in the US. Building the supply chain will take time as well as investment from the US side on their infrastructure, importing the equipment with tariffs will make the upfront capital ridiculously high. So unless the US is willing, at least to drop tariffs for heavy equipment, I don’t see this happening.

I can see the Chinese basically use this opening up to wait Trump out. Investing massive capital in the mean time is possible but it would depend on the sector and what the actual investment involves. For example, have say Huawei invest in AI chip production in the US, I can see that possibly happening but only if the US is going to approve it. General investment in production in the US, frankly I don’t see that happening.
Click to expand...
No deal you say ..Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1921824613824160185
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
jiajia99 said:
I believe China would’ve done this as yet another delay tactic while making themselves look good. The longer they delay whilst chipping away at the USA (remember that the US supply chains have been rattled enough to cause Trump some serious worry and the damages are likely there to stay), the better Chinas outlook will be. Ultimately, as long has China doesn’t lose too much compared to the USA (I mean tariffing the entire world is going to do some serious damage to the international image of the USA that will not heal any time soon), China can be satisfied with the current situation while building itself up against in case the USA tries again later down the track like it always happens. This is an ongoing hybrid war and the last one standing will be the victor, all China needs to do is to be that man standing while losing as little as possible. How or when China chooses to secure victory will be ultimately up to China
Click to expand...

We've now reached the point where no American company will willingly source from China, if there is a halfway decent alternative.
So this might take 6 months. It might take 3years. But it'll happen.

This damage has already been done with the astronomical tariffs imposed by the US which is a defacto trade embargo.
Plus who can trust that Trump will honour any tariff deal? He has a track record of tearing up deals and "renegotiating" whenever he feels like it.

Even if a trade deal is reached, this will only provide temporary relief to Chinese industry, before US-bound production shifts anyway.

So from the Chinese perspective, is there much point in a trade deal?

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At the same time, the US will likely start seeing empty shelves in the next 1-2 months.
Whereas the Chinese economy is much more self-sufficient and resilient.

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So from my perspective, the optimal strategy is for China to insist on very favourable terms from the US.
And there is no rush as the US will soon see a supply shock with empty shelves.
 
Wrought

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ok so back to square one. Pleasantly surprised they reset back to pre-April status quo. I know some folks will be upset, but blowing up the system just to get back where you started is a major loss for the US no matter how you slice it. Shouldn't be a surprise that Beijing is happy to lock in the guaranteed gains instead of risking more.

Reality is not a videogame where you are always trying for the "optimal" play. Know when to take the win and be happy.
 
lcloo

lcloo

Captain
I am actually happy that I was wrong earlier today. Here is the breaking news. Pls do note that the suspension of the tariff, except 10%, is to be for a period of 90 days.

Meaning they will have to make another deal whether to extend the suspension or make it permanent or they could discontinue with this agreement. So it is not over yet.

Joint statement on China-U.S. economic and trade meeting in Geneva​

Politics15:00, 12-May-2025
CGTN , Updated 15:09, 12-May-2025

China and the United States on Monday released a joint statement on China-U.S. Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva.The following is the English translation of the full text of the joint statement:

Joint Statement on China-U.S. Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva
The Government of the People's Republic of China ("China") and the Government of the United States of America (the "United States"),
Recognizing the importance of their bilateral economic and trade relationship to both countries and the global economy;
Recognizing the importance of a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship;
Reflecting on their recent discussions and believing that continued discussions have the potential to address the concerns of each side in their economic and trade relationship; and Moving forward in the spirit of mutual opening, continued communication, cooperation, and mutual respect;

The Parties commit to take the following actions by May 14, 2025:
The United States will (i) modify the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of China (including articles of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macau Special Administrative Region) set forth in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining the remaining ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles pursuant to the terms of said Order; and (ii) removing the modified additional ad valorem rates of duty on those articles imposed by Executive Order 14259 of April 8, 2025 and Executive Order 14266 of April 9, 2025.

China will (i) modify accordingly the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of the United States set forth in Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 4 of 2025, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining the remaining additional ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles, and removing the modified additional ad valorem rates of duty on those articles imposed by Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 5 of 2025 and Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 6 of 2025; and (ii) adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.

After taking the aforementioned actions, the Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations. The representative from the Chinese side for these discussions will be He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side will be Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative. These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.
 
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