The Kashmir conflict 2025.

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Normally I would say India can’t be stupid enough to start a war it cannot possibly win, but Ukraine and Trump are proving that just because something is stupid doesn’t mean it won’t happen these days.

I think Pakistan will have relatively confident in its ability to repulse any Indian aggression.

The key to any clash will be air power, and Pakistan enjoys significant on paper and off-book advantages compared to India.

Pakistan has invested more than India in AWACS assets, which will massively swing the odds in favour of the PAF. Many of those AWACS are directly compatible with PLAAF datalinks. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities for Ukraine style kill chain support by PLAAF recon and surveillance assets.

The recent disclosure that the JF17 is PL15 compatible is a major game changer in itself, but more important is the logistics implications.

India purchased 250 Meteors, which sounds like a lot, but really means less than 7 missiles per plane for its 36 Rafale fleet. That’s basically enough missiles for one combat sortie for each plane. Let that sink in on what it means in a real war scenario.

The PAF OTOH, can have functionally unlimited PL15 reloads as China can send them PLAAF inventory rounds as an emergency measure if needed. Will France do that for India?

The fact that Pakistan has inducted J10Cs also opens up the option of PLAAF J10Cs fighting directly in the war if needed under PAF colours.

With the kind of full spectrum support China can and will offer Pakistan, it basically cannot lose against India in the air. And if the PAF controls the skies, the Indian Army cannot do much on the ground without risking getting absolutely wrecked by air strikes.

Ukraine style drone wars doesn’t even need to come into it, as that’s only really relevant if you are bogged down in close range entrenched attritional warfare. But is also a viable option if India does go totally nuts and tries to overwhelm PAF air strikes with sheer numbers. But TBH, I think mines and artillery will be far more effective at stopping the Indians in their tracks if they try any large scale ground invasion. And again, logistics will be key here, and where Pakistan has an unassailable edge with Chinese support.

So long as Pakistan doesn’t fold like a house of cards upon initial contact, and there is zero indication that they will, the kind of support they can expect to get from China will mean they basically can’t loose the war.
Agreed. The Chinese can even fly their J-20 into the skies in the case of a prolonged war. The Indian fighters may find PL-15s fired from very far away suddenly make a sharp turn when the missiles get close and hit them. If the Indians don't control the skies, drones alone will do huge damage to the Indian army given how big a role drones played in Ukraine. This will provide the Chinese with a rare opportunity to test out their drone warfare. The longer this drags on, the higher the likelihood that the Indian army will do nothing and back down.
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
So, these reports are very likely real? :eek:

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It comes as a shock to many because they don't believe Chinese military has come so far for a cheap price.

But when you think about it, military is mainly about tech now. How is that any different from the other complex tech field China is trying to enter? If anything military has a head start because China has been investing in it long ago. Theres no golden rule saying somehow only Europeans know it and there's no way China would ever pick up on it.
 

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
The good news — J-10C wasn’t in the air when the Rafales were locked and evicted.

The bad news — it was done by “little brother” JF-17 Block 3…
So, these reports are very likely real? :eek:

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Could it result in India crippling their domestic fighter program even further? Assuming this is true, then regardless if it was an J-10C or JF-17 Block 3. The officers and bureaucrats in the Indian Air Force and the Government may feel the heavy pressure towards “investing” billions into squadrons of F-35s. Stripping funding that could have gone towards domestic military development.
 

Taiban

Junior Member
Registered Member
View attachment 151238

Not sure if real but here is a complaint letter on the replacement by a general.
Fake letter. The writing of 1 May is not the service writing style. If you follow the official reliable news on both sides, Indian government has already issued the fake fact check news. There are similar misinformation Campaigns of other side too.

The Standards of Sino-defence forum are supposed to be very high wherein moderators regularly caution against spread of false news.

So, my suggestion let's avoid uncorroborated news
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Fake letter. The writing of 1 May is not the service writing style. If you follow the official reliable news on both sides, Indian government has already issued the fake fact check news. There are similar misinformation Campaigns of other side too.

The Standards of Sino-defence forum are supposed to be very high wherein moderators regularly caution against spread of false news.

So, my suggestion let's avoid uncorroborated news
Indian government with BJP in power is the biggest lier in the world. They will say and prove anything to save face.

They have constantly lied about Galwan, balakot, surgical strike and so on.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Indian government with BJP in power is the biggest lier in the world. They will say and prove anything to save face.

They have constantly lied about Galwan, balakot, surgical strike and so on.

Which leads me to think that there might be some kernel of truth behind the Pakistani claims — the silence is deafening this time. I legit think that the four Rafales were supposed to do a Balakot style strike before being thwarted… somehow.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
No point in idle speculation. What we know for a fact is that the element of surprise is lost. There is not much India can do. The sorry state of the IAF doesn't help matters. India's traditional allies also does not want escalation. Modi will probably hope for a repeat of 2019. What that episode taught us was that even a flop can be sold to the gullible Indian public by their cult leader as a success.
 
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