Trump 2.0 official thread

Moonscape

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The dynastic cycle is something that has held true for I think pretty much all organized human states larger than the hunter gatherer tribe. There is the constant tension between the central authority and the other potential centers of power whether this be nobles, patricians, outlying governors, billionaire oligarchs, etc... The oligarchs may have arisen because of central government patronage, promotion to noble class for actions done by their ancestors to support the government, or by successful business, but regardless they eventually aim to further their own selfish or family interests over that of the government. They are not necessarily actively disloyal or trying to overturn the system since their own wealth and power depends on perpetuation of the system. Every dynastic change pretty much swept away the old oligarch class to replace it with new people so these same oligarchs don't really want revolution. However their attempts to advance their own personal interests inevitably eroded the power and wealth of the government to the point where a revolution took place.

No government in human history has overcome this problem, and things usually come to a head between 200-400 years after a dynasty's formation. That is when the central authority's resources become so starved that it cannot cope with external shocks such as external enemies or natural disasters. Attempts at clawing back resources usually fail or are insignificant because there are central authority supporters among the oligarchs or there is capture of the levers of state by the oligarchs so attempts at revoking privileges or taking back wealth are ultimately ineffectual as the central authority avoids antagonizing its own supporters. Even though individual oligarchs might fall and have their wealth confiscated, the overall trend is still ever increasing concentration of wealth and power into other centers of power. Eventually with wealth comes military and political power such as seen with the warlord figures in the late Han or Three Kingdoms period.

The fall of a dynasty would lead to a resetting of the board as the old oligarchs are replaced by new ones, to then repeat the cycle. While the unique features of each dynasty might have resulted in a speeding up or slowing down of the cycle, the cycle still turned. It has probably sped up with more technology as greater tech and sophistication accelerates the speed at which wealth generation and accumulation can occur.

Well the solution is right there in the prompt. The concentration of wealth leads to political power, which leads to wealth, leading to concentration of wealth and power. Marx talks extensively about this. If you can organize the state in such a way as to permanently decouple wealth and power--which the PRC, as a Marxist-Leninist state, does--perhaps you won't succumb to this cycle as readily.
 

Wrought

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Despite 3000 years of dynastic rule, no Chinese dynasty has been able to break the cycle of rise and decline that has characterized every Chinese dynasty in history. Each dynasty began with land/wealth redistribution and capable administration, bringing about a golden age of growth, prosperity, and progress. However, over the course of the dynasty, wealth, land, and power inevitably flowed away from the people and central administration and into the coffers of the few, resulting in the downfall of the dynasty. Each successive dynasty tried its best to learn from the mistakes of its predecessors, yet none have ever managed to break the cycle.

话说天下大势,分久必合,合久必分。
 

Iracundus

Junior Member
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An examination of the history of the United States reveals that the rise and fall of the US also does not deviate much from the Chinese dynastic cycle. I would dare to go on to generalize that the dynastic cycle is the natural path for any society that develops in a vacuum devoid of major direct external pressures. Although I only have a very superficial understanding of the history of the Roman empire, I wouldn't be surprised if Rome too fell victim to this cycle.

On the other hand, the only scenarios in which societies do not succumb to the dynastic cycle occurs when societies are pitted in constant conflict/competition with one another. States of the Warring States Period, ie Qin, Zhao, Chu, Wei lasted far longer than of the dynasties that followed. The same can be observed with the history of Europe over the past millennia, where European states and monarchs were in constant conflict/competition with one another.

The dynastic cycle existed even during the Warring States period. Take for example the state of Chu. It was riven by internal politics between the king and nominally subordinate powerful feudal lords/nobles. Eventually the internal politicking led to the exiling of competent people, the installation of a stupid puppet king, and poor decisions that led to Chu being unable to take advantage of the full resources of its territory, then being soundly defeated and weakned by Qin, to finally having its final remnants conquered by Qin.

In Europe, even when there was constant competition, there was the ongoing internal tension within each petty state between the ruler, the other feudal lords, and the Church. The Magna Carta was a result of the feudal lords being victorious over the king. Louis XIV seemingly exerted dominance over other nobles, but did not address the underlying flaws within the taxation system of the ancien regime under which nobles and Church paid no tax (or virtually none). Half hearted attempts by him or his successors failed because of the risk of revolt by the nobles and Church, and because some of the throne's supporters came from within these groups.

As for Rome, the fall of the Roman Republic certainly follows the same themes. The levers of government had fallen under oligarchic capture, or perhaps they always had been from their founding, and government became merely a means for the oligarchs to squeeze wealth from the territories they were supposed to govern. The founding of the empire or Principate was more the decisive victory of one oligarch over all the others, and a resetting of the board with new names and faces.

Well the solution is right there in the prompt. The concentration of wealth leads to political power, which leads to wealth, leading to concentration of wealth and power. Marx talks extensively about this. If you can organize the state in such a way as to permanently decouple wealth and power--which the PRC, as a Marxist-Leninist state, does--perhaps you won't succumb to this cycle as readily.

The PRC is not immune as evidenced by how anti-corruption drives and investigations arrest officials for abuse of official powers and corruption. Government officials get tempted to use their official power to accrue wealth as those with wealth come to them offering to pay for favors such as speeding through permits and regulatory bureaucracy or turning a blind eye to bad business behavior. Wealthy people use their wealth to influence officials and this translates into unofficial political power. Then there is the influence of background. In Imperial times, those first nobles and high government officials were often the direct supporters of the dynasty founder, and the descendants of these people became the oligarch class. It has been argued that the same has occurred even with the PRC with those coming from more distinguished Red or revolutionary backgrounds/families having an advantage within political and business circles compared to those that do not come from such backgrounds.
 
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enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well the solution is right there in the prompt. The concentration of wealth leads to political power, which leads to wealth, leading to concentration of wealth and power. Marx talks extensively about this. If you can organize the state in such a way as to permanently decouple wealth and power--which the PRC, as a Marxist-Leninist state, does--perhaps you won't succumb to this cycle as readily.

It is a constant struggle to maintain though, current CPC method can be liken to whack a mole approach, anti-corruption campaign here and there and putting over ambitious capitalist in their place (cough Jake Ma...)....etc. Honestly if it weren't for Xi's policy, things may look very different now.

There needs to be a fundamentally systematic way of separating capital and political power for it to last. But even so, at least for the foreseeable future China is on the right path, decay will not set in for a very long time, which is of course great for our generation of Chinese
 

nativechicken

Junior Member
Registered Member
Absolutely. War will persist. If I can have a powerful and richer life style, I will strive to attain more. This is human nature. You think Israel is not a wealthy country? They start wars all the time using their wealth advantage. You think Europeans and Americans are not wealthy at their peak? Their advantage embolden them to attain more using the said advantage. You are completely out of touch with reality. You remind me of delusional Chinese scholars 1000 years ago and I am not expecting to see your kind in 21st century. Except even ancient Chinese knew from experience “夷狄,禽兽也,畏威而不怀德”。So really you are dumber than people 1000 years ago.

No, that is just common sense. You want your society to be safe so it can become powerful. But having a stable society does not stop one from expanding outward. It only helps expansion because you are less distracted by internal conflicts. We see this in western history, their expansion is at peak when their society is stable. When they fight among themselves in the 60s, there is less war. When they get their shit together in 90s, more wars starts. Again, completely out of touch with reality. Completely out of touch with common sense.

Your own words contradict yourself. So end of the day it is still about self interest, because a global leadership benefits China. It just so happens that Chinese model is more efficient and less harmful to others. But end of the day, it is still in the interest of China. If it were not, it would be wrong. And you will be sillier than 郑和 and his silly boats giving stuff for free to others.

I ask you this, why does China still trade with US, EU, Israel, if they are war mongers? Why does China still trade with Russia who starts wars? The answer is it is to China's interest. These country will use the wealth they gained trading with China for more wars, but it will be fine, as long as China gain more in the long run.
First, I’ll briefly outline the logic here.

China’s vision of a community with a shared future for mankind stands in opposition to the West’s so-called “rules-based order” (Western hegemony). Why do you assume this system solely targets vested interests rooted in plunder-based civilizations?

This framework inherently weakens any “great power” built on predatory exploitation. Fairness demands these nations surrender some gains to reinvest in former colonies they harmed. The goal of dismantling Western colonialism—both old and new (all derivatives of plunder culture)—is to liberate nations and peoples from perpetual exploitation.

This is the mission of the shared future community: breaking the exploitative cycle (masked as a “rules-based order”) and forcing all nations to adapt. The Global South’s true emancipation, guided by Chinese principles, will mature their societies and prove the superiority of China’s civilizational ethos. Results will speak for themselves.

As for the U.S., Europe, and Japan: none will willingly relinquish their entrenched privileges. But when alternatives emerge, their vampiric pathways vanish. Refusal to reform? History buries them. None are foolish enough to cling to obsolescence.

In the next era, colonial models cannot survive through force or economic coercion. Why?

Militarily, they cannot overpower.
Technologically, they cannot monopolize.
Innovatively, they cannot dominate.
What remains? For ordinary people worldwide, the demand is simple: better lives. If material prosperity expands (via affordable, abundant industrial goods), societies stabilize. What choice do they have but to embrace the new paradigm?

World wars erupt only when survival collapses. If global populations thrive, what government dares ignite chaos? Any aggressor would face universal condemnation.

Thus, the core divide between your view and mine: you fixate on legacy colonial powers—unrepentant predators—incapable of abandoning plunder, no matter their wealth. You’re right: this is the world’s central flaw.

Yet their continued predation relies on economic colonization of the weak and lingering advantages in tech, economy, and military. The old system still feeds them, creating an illusion of invincibility.

The new order shatters their blood-sucking cycle. This is, simply put, the “encircling the cities from the countryside” strategy of the new era.

Most nations and peoples remain trapped in exploitative “order.” Once they develop outside this framework, colonial shackles break. To prevent new colonizers, they must adopt China’s logic (understanding how the world truly operates). As for others? Let them awaken in due time.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
An examination of the history of the United States reveals that the rise and fall of the US also does not deviate much from the Chinese dynastic cycle. I would dare to go on to generalize that the dynastic cycle is the natural path for any society that develops in a vacuum devoid of major direct external pressures. Although I only have a very superficial understanding of the history of the Roman empire, I wouldn't be surprised if Rome too fell victim to this cycle.

On the other hand, the only scenarios in which societies do not succumb to the dynastic cycle occurs when societies are pitted in constant conflict/competition with one another. States of the Warring States Period, ie Qin, Zhao, Chu, Wei lasted far longer than of the dynasties that followed. The same can be observed with the history of Europe over the past millennia, where European states and monarchs were in constant conflict/competition with one another.
I think US need to demonstrate the ability to rise again at least once to be compared to the Chinese dynastic cycle.
So far no non-Chinese power has ever demonstrated this.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think US need to demonstrate the ability to rise again at least once to be compared to the Chinese dynastic cycle.
So far no non-Chinese power has ever demonstrated this.

Russian Empire > Russian Civil War > Soviet Union

You can probably say the same about Japan. To a lesser extent, Italy, and to an even lesser extent, Germany.

But no country has had a similar experience to China in terms of sheer scope, number of cycles, and prolonged fragmentation.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think US need to demonstrate the ability to rise again at least once to be compared to the Chinese dynastic cycle.
So far no non-Chinese power has ever demonstrated this.
To be fair, Indo-Europeans have proven this ability as a group, even if it's a different group of Indo-Europeans each time.

From the conquest of most of Europe, West Asia, Central Asia, and northern India ~4,000 years ago, to Alexander and the Roman Empire ~2,000 years ago, to the British and American empires ~200 years ago.

From the above, their cycle of regional / world conquest is about 2,000 years. So probably not much to worry about once the most recent cycle is ended. Given the pace of technology development, it's not likely humans will have another 2,000 years before the singularity arrives.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
LOL They probably told Trump, "You're messin' with our money and that's not funny. This is a capitalist society; we got more money in the sock drawer than you have in all your bankrupt crap across the country. You're gonna make those exemptions by the time those ships pull into port or you're gonna say hi to Kennedy."

Meanwhile, Trump trying to get China to negotiate:

0:21 China's response: "We have no negotiations with the US. This is fake news."
 
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