Trump 2.0 official thread

[manqiangrexue]

The US is going to a recession regardless. The issue here is uncertainty. If there's a deal, people will keep buying the same from China, but no one will be expanding, as no one knows when the tariffs will be back on. They'll simply stock up, which will drive up the trade deficit, which will be negative for GDP calculations, and add inefficiency, while no one will be investing for any growth.

America's issue is structural, it's not something that can be easily fixed. At the same time, it's also got enough power, soft or hard, to continue on for quite a while longer. Xi would be delusional to think he can deal a death blow to the US right now. IMO China believes that the US is beyond reform right now, it needs a revolution, it needs to fall before there can be the possibility of a rebirth. I do believe that Xi believes that as well, so it stands to reason that China's main goal right now is not to bring about America's downfall because it believes that it'll happen anyway, but instead China's goal would be to avoid collateral damage and maximally profit from it.

IMO China will make a deal, then move on to strengthening itself while letting the US be distracted by whatever Trump's next whim is.

That's actually fairly reasonable and realistic. Currently, America is in disarray and needs a real reset. We push them to the brink, damage them even worse but not hard enough to give them that reset. We do not permit them to reinvent themselves with "the battle pressed to a river bank." It's ancient Chinese wisdom to allow the enemy to slink away in defeat rather than force a desperate fight for survival that introduces a wild card possibility of turning the tables. On the other hand...

I think China already made it pretty clear: US drops all tariff on China while China keeps all tariffs on US, then we can talk, slowly.

And if they do that, then 245% exit tax on exports to the US. Mercy does not exist in this dojo!

 

[Barefoot]

China had better be in this for real, till the death, or i want a refund (from all the stuff i bought off Temu)

If not now, when; if not them, who, if not here, where

Invade Taiwan already, supply Russia, Iran, Houthis and whoever to do us all afavour and destroy the US empire, its sick culture, once and for all.

Although, saying all that, the only danger i see for China is for them to suddenly crack open and lose thier shit, get all emotional, as they release that pent up agression that they've beeen repressing for centuries, and make a mistake, fall into some kind of trap, find themselves being betrayed by Russia, Iran ...

 

[plawolf]

Economics is never static, it keeps on going.

After this worldwide financial crisis, and there will be one if China and America cannot come to a deal within about a month, then what will be the growth rates of China and America after this financial crisis?

China probably will be growing GDP around 5%.

United States probably will be growing GDP around 2% or less.

That is kind of like the situation already we have today.

So it makes no sense to induce a financial crisis which will destroy people in those years of recession, to achieve the same outcome we already have, that we are living through today!

Furthermore, we already seen this movie before, once in 2008 and with covid. Both times America came out of those crisis stronger than ever.

Both times America came out of those crisis stronger than ever, relative to itself, but not relative to China.

In fact, China seems to be doing relatively better than America, with or without a financial crisis.

So, why do we need one?

That’s just circular reasoning where you arbitrarily set the 5% and 2% growth rates and then use that as evidence that the total economic collapse of the U.S. economy won’t have any major impact on either party. It’s totally nonsense on the same level as arguing that the collapse of the USSR was no big deal to Russians.

China has always offered a win-win relationship arguing that the world is big enough to accommodate both China and America. But America has now declared that one of the two needs to die, so China will do all in its power to make sure it’s America that is the one who dies at the end.

It would be the height of stupidity to go back to business as usual with someone when they just tried to kill you, just because he failed utterly in his attempt. If you are stupid enough to do that, all you will earn is a knife in the back later from the same guy. Only next time he might not fumble his attack so completely, and you will deserve to die for giving him another bite at the cherry. China doesn’t do that kind of stupid.

 

[AndrewS]

You are falling for the western narrative that China only cares about money and profits.

This isn’t about money or trade any more, this is a fight to the death economically, and China won’t stop until it is sure it has dealt a lethal blow to the American economy that it will never recover from.

You cannot achieve that without a global economic crisis the likes of which the world has not seen before, and unfortunately that means massive economic pain globally, if not an economic mass extinction event.

We have not yet even started to feel that pain yet, but we will, and as that pain grows, so will the global pressure for China to relent, but China won’t. Instead it will offer the world a New Deal, rebalance your trade and security arrangements to put Beijing at the centre, or die with the old Washington economic world order.

My read is that overall, the Chinese government would prefer a gradual decline of the US into irrelevance, rather than a single shock moment with a global economic or military crisis.

I suspect that once of the history books are written, they'll write about how 2025 marked a turning point in world history because:

1. The US is abandoning the liberal trading system that it created
2. Trump losing the tariff war against China and the rest of the world (likely)
3. The loss of confidence in US Treasury Bonds (fissures in the US Dollar as the reserve currency) and broader US stocks
4. The loss of US technology leadership (Deepseek moment)

 

[luminary]

IMO China will make a deal, then move on to strengthening itself while letting the US be distracted by whatever Trump's next whim is.

If Chinese intelligence believes that the US will start a Iran war this summer, then it is worthwhile allowing the US to take that L.

If you recall, there was also a China-hysteria over spy balloons a few years ago around this time, but it disappeared just like every other news cycle. US attention span only lasts for 3 months.

Distract the nuclear-armed MAGA fanatics with some middle eastern bogeymen. Every year of peacetime development China can buy for itself is invaluable.

 

[zscstephen]

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1914932458816000398

 

[JJD1803]

I think China already made it pretty clear: US drops all tariff on China while China keeps all tariffs on US, then we can talk, slowly.

China is likely going to wait until there is a massive price surge,shortages and empty shelves occur in the US that will put Trump in a panic to start negotiations. They’ll want total capitulation of the US. The shock that will come to the American psyche seeing empty shelves in Walmart,Target,Sams Club and Costco with drastic price increases will lead to a major crisis for the Trump administration. So they’ll make Trump swear even more,let the crisis stew until he panics. Beijing isn’t going to waste theI opportunity.

 

[plawolf]

My read is that overall, the Chinese government would prefer a gradual decline of the US into irrelevance, rather than a single shock moment with a global economic or military crisis.

I suspect that once of the history books are written, they'll write about how 2025 marked a turning point in world history because:

1. The US is abandoning the liberal trading system that it created
2. Trump losing the tariff war against China and the rest of the world (likely)
3. The loss of confidence in US Treasury Bonds (fissures in the US Dollar as the reserve currency) and broader US stocks
4. The loss of US technology leadership (Deepseek moment)

A manage decline and settlement into a much reduced, but still comfortable position was China’s preferred solution to dealing with America, but that went out the window when Trump tried to destroy China’s economic future.

You can’t start a fight to the death and then call time out when it looks like you are the one who is going to die. Some moves can’t be walked back, because at its core, the total breakdown of trust is irrevocable. Just what assurances can Trump and America give China that it won’t try to kill China’s economy ever again that China can believe them? And this goes beyond just Trump, because the silence across the American political spectrum about him crossing this most fundamental of red lines is deafening and speaks all that needs to be said. No one in power in America sees Trump’s attempt to destroy China’s economic future as wrong. They just didn’t think the way he went about that is best. How can you have any trust with someone who wants you dead? Without that most bare minimum of trust, what relationships can you have with them?

The economic relationship between China and America is irrevocably destroyed now. Full decoupling is in full swing, and China is driving that as much as America with Boeing delivery refusals and rare earth bans. I would go as far as to say that China is swinging into full war prep now, although there will be much deliberate concealment of that decision and the nature of arms procurement means that definitive proof probably won’t be seen for years. Much of the war prep will probably be disguised as economic stimulus to mitigate the economic impacted of the decoupling.

I think a countdown is now underway in Beijing. The key question of whether that is for the economic death blow to America, or for full kinetic warfare is probably irrelevant and academic at this point, as I think China will feel it needs to be fully prepared for the later even if it only intends the former, and if it is prepared for the later, when the time comes, will it even bother to limit itself just to the former?

 

[GZDRefugee]

I hope you guys are ready for a truly cultured meme.

 

[drowingfish]

A manage decline and settlement into a much reduced, but still comfortable position was China’s preferred solution to dealing with America, but that went out the window when Trump tried to destroy China’s economic future.

You can’t start a fight to the death and then call time out when it looks like you are the one who is going to die. Some moves can’t be walked back, because at its core, the total breakdown of trust is irrevocable. Just what assurances can Trump and America give China that it won’t try to kill China’s economy ever again that China can believe them? And this goes beyond just Trump, because the silence across the American political spectrum about him crossing this most fundamental of red lines is deafening and speaks all that needs to be said. No one in power in America sees Trump’s attempt to destroy China’s economic future as wrong. They just didn’t think the way he went about that is best. How can you have any trust with someone who wants you dead? Without that most bare minimum of trust, what relationships can you have with them?

The economic relationship between China and America is irrevocably destroyed now. Full decoupling is in full swing, and China is driving that as much as America with Boeing delivery refusals and rare earth bans. I would go as far as to say that China is swinging into full war prep now, although there will be much deliberate concealment of that decision and the nature of arms procurement means that definitive proof probably won’t be seen for years. Much of the war prep will probably be disguised as economic stimulus to mitigate the economic impacted of the decoupling.

I think a countdown is now underway in Beijing. The key question of whether that is for the economic death blow to America, or for full kinetic warfare is probably irrelevant and academic at this point, as I think China will feel it needs to be fully prepared for the later even if it only intends the former, and if it is prepared for the later, when the time comes, will it even bother to limit itself just to the former?

i agree, this is not some kids play where you just call it quit when it gets uncomfortable lol.

In this case, China has the advantage that it can do damage simply by doing nothing because its tariffs and export restrictions are already in place. even if trump offers a deal, China can drag out the negotiation under the very sensible pretense of looking for mechanism to enforce the deal. not sure what is in it for China to rush to handover a latter for trump to climb down. just let trump cook a bit, if he offers a better deal great, if he reneges and doubles down on the tariff (a very real possibility) then China would look prescient in the eyes of other nations by not taking the offer, and trump would look like an even bigger fool.