00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[Deino]

Yeah well, when the first pictures of J-50 (retouched and PSed yes, but very much based on real photos) came out on December 23 i believe, you very confidently labelled them as fake and even put such labels on them. So you were looking at the first flight of the J-50 three days before the videos appeared and you had no idea.

So, are you so confident that what pretty much all reliable chinese sources are hinting to being built at Dalian is not the 004 carrier, or at the very least A carrier? If you are so confident about that, stand by it and let's talk again say later in the year or early next year. Will you apologize to the people you've been pestering and bullying when they convey rumours and hints about 004 if by then we will see proof of a carrier taking shape there?

I think if you would know me, I have never ever a problem to apologise in case I was proven wrong ... but how often did you or others apologise when their initial claims vanished like smoke?!

Sorry in case I sound rude, but what are the claims since months:
- 004 is under construction ! FACT!
- 005 or a second 003 or 004 the same ... "I tell" you!"
- it will be a monster, larger than the USS Ford, surely 150 kt if not more! "I know"!
- 003 will be handed over soon in two months and then ...
... and still nothing concrete !

But I am being called out since I ruin you the party?

Again, I do not deny it COULD be, but these constant jumping the band.wagon is stupid and brings nothing! As @Blitzo noted a few posts ago.

Or are there indeed 50 J-10CE in Pakistan + a batch in Sudan, Egypt and now Uzbekistan since some fan-boys claim so?

 

[mack8]

Without derailing this even more, i'll just say that perhaps it's better not to get in a situation needing to apologize in the first place, by adopting a more neutral, conciliatory tone (such as some other of your fellow mods did previously) when claims are made, especially from mandarin speaking members (translating and trying to interpret chinese fora postings) that i and i believe yourself don't speak. The more serious and mature PLA watcher should be pretty capable to differentiate between truly outlandish/fanboyish claims and more likely, expected and logical developments.

 

[cornerodriguez]

El 076 LHD Sichuan, si bien es capaz de operar UCAV, no es un portaaviones propiamente dicho. Es un LHD, y no está diseñado para enfrentarse en igualdad de condiciones a buques de guerra enemigos en alta mar como los portaaviones.

En cuanto al CSSC Discovery #1, es una nave de investigación y pruebas de cubierta plana (probablemente civil). Ni siquiera es un buque de guerra propiamente dicho, así que considerarlo un "portaaviones propiamente dicho" es totalmente erróneo.

Por lo tanto, es probable que solo haya un portaaviones en construcción en China en este momento, si se demuestra firmemente que los módulos de casco en el dique seco de Dalian pertenecen a un 004 CV(N).

Además, por favor utilice inglés.

The 076 LHD Sichuan, while capable of UCAV operations, is not a proper carrier. It's an LHD, and it isn't meant to go toe-to-toe against enemy warships on the high seas like the proper carriers.

As for that CSSC Discovery #1, it's a (most likely civilian) flat-deck research and testing platform ship. She's not even a proper warship, so counting it as a "proper carrier" is plain wrong.

Hence, there is likely to be only one carrier that are under construction in China at the present moment, if those hull modules at that drydock at Dalian is firmly proven to belong to a 004 CV(N).

Also, please use English.

Sorry friend, it's the automatic translator.
But the bottom line is what I was discussing is maritime construction capacity. Especially for aircraft carriers.
Some European countries have LHPs that they use as aircraft carriers. It's just a matter of doctrine and equipment arrangement.

 

[HailingTX20]

Without derailing this even more, i'll just say that perhaps it's better not to get in a situation needing to apologize in the first place, by adopting a more neutral, conciliatory tone (such as some other of your fellow mods did previously) when claims are made, especially from mandarin speaking members (translating and trying to interpret chinese fora postings) that i and i believe yourself don't speak. The more serious and mature PLA watcher should be pretty capable to differentiate between truly outlandish/fanboyish claims and more likely, expected and logical developments.

Being able to read Mandarin doesn't magically make you an analytical and critical person. Extraordinary claims, and claiming that China is already hard-planning for 3 CVNS and is already building one plus another 003 is extraordinary, require extraordinary proof. A single cryptic and open to interpretation social media statement is not that proof.

There's nothing wrong with making educated guesses, but the crux of the issue is to not present those guesses as proven facts.

Otherwise, J35 is already flying for Uzbekistan, J-15s are flying from the 076, the 004 is already practically finished and is double the size of the Ford and the J-36 is already in serial production. After all, you can find some of those claims on weibo so that makes them true?

 

[Deino]

Without derailing this even more, i'll just say that perhaps it's better not to get in a situation needing to apologize in the first place, by adopting a more neutral, conciliatory tone (such as some other of your fellow mods did previously) when claims are made, especially from mandarin speaking members (translating and trying to interpret chinese fora postings) that i and i believe yourself don't speak. The more serious and mature PLA watcher should be pretty capable to differentiate between truly outlandish/fanboyish claims and more likely, expected and logical developments.

I think it is not derailing the thread or topic, but indeed a worthy side-aspect of this discussion: Yes I don't speak Chinese and yes, I'm dependent on either translations & explanations from others or with online tools. On the other side I think over all the years I got a quite decent - still surely not perfect but in anyway always improving - ability to "read between the lines" and to get a feeling on who is credible and who's not. As such, I surely miss a lot of original Chinese chatter, but those rumours with a certain credibility - especially when repeated or hinted by credible Weibo posters - I surely notice. As such i think I usually only miss a lot of original posts, that are less or even not credible.

In essence it is for me a matter of credibility: Why always hyping any random rumour almost as a fact and even more so defending it against critics as if one's own honour depended on it? Why not call a rumour a rumour and celebrate after confirmation? Anything else only damages the own credibility.

Being able to read Mandarin doesn't magically make you an analytical and critical person. Extraordinary claims, and claiming that China is already hard-planning for 3 CVNS and is already building one plus another 003 is extraordinary, require extraordinary proof. A single cryptic and open to interpretation social media statement is not that proof.

There's nothing wrong with making educated guesses, but the crux of the issue is to not present those guesses as proven facts.

Otherwise, J35 is already flying for Uzbekistan, J-15s are flying from the 076, the 004 is already practically finished and is double the size of the Ford and the J-36 is already in serial production. After all, you can find some of those claims on weibo so that makes them true?

Thanks for this post! I can only agree!

 

[Heresy]

I never said that nor did I ever implied that.
You're either not good at reading or just too quick to judge someone based on what **you** like to think in your head.

Before worrying about my literacy, you should worry about your basic ability to reason. If dockyard space is not the concern, why would China NOT attempt to build two CVs? YOU were the one who made the argument building two CVs is "putting all your eggs in one basket".

Yes China has the ship building capacity, but just because China can do something that does not necessarily mean they will do it. "Can" and "Will" are 2 different words.

I really can't think of a good English phrase that quite encompasses the feeling of what I am trying to convey here. 废话

Within the foreseeable future (between now and 25 years) we do Not know what the PLA's objective is:
Does China want to:
Project power very long distances?
Turn China into an impenetrable fortress?
Have the ability to sink anything that floats on or under water?
Project power onto land from the sea?

For any of these objectives, tell me what, instead of a carrier, would you build from the available dockyard space? How would any other surface warship(s) help you in the next few years with achieving any of those objectives better than a CV? And if you choose to build nothing, that would mean idle dockyard workers which will soon lead to laid off dockyard workers.

Each of these objectives would require different types of ships.
If China had its wish the answer would be all of the above and then some more..... In fact why stop at the navy? Why not be a land, sea, air, and space super power! However in the real world there's this thing called a budget.

China is as of this moment attempting to become EXCATLY a land/sea/air/space superpower. For someone who has participated on this board for as long as you have, I am shocked you are unable to wrap your head around the fact that dominating in modern warfare means being competitive, if not dominant in an ALL of these domains. And frankly, since you're making the argument, the burden is on you to prove that China does not have the money/budget to build a second CV simultaneously.

The answer is going to have to be a, b, or c. Not d all of the above.
We don't know what China will prioritize next. Like I said before, "We just have to wait and see."

The only thing that is right about your statement is that indeed, no one can predict the future and we will, "just have to wait and see".

 

[5unrise]

I think all users, moderators included, should try to use respectful and conciliatory language, particularly if those they are speaking with adopts that approach. I don't really agree with how certain moderators have posted in recent months, particularly as they should be setting an example of good behavior.
It could be a second language issue, in which case I am more understanding, but we should be at least self aware of how we may be perceived.

 

[dingyibvs]

Before worrying about my literacy, you should worry about your basic ability to reason. If dockyard space is not the concern, why would China NOT attempt to build two CVs? YOU were the one who made the argument building two CVs is "putting all your eggs in one basket".



I really can't think of a good English phrase that quite encompasses the feeling of what I am trying to convey here. 废话



For any of these objectives, tell me what, instead of a carrier, would you build from the available dockyard space? How would any other surface warship(s) help you in the next few years with achieving any of those objectives better than a CV? And if you choose to build nothing, that would mean idle dockyard workers which will soon lead to laid off dockyard workers.



China is as of this moment attempting to become EXCATLY a land/sea/air/space superpower. For someone who has participated on this board for as long as you have, I am shocked you are unable to wrap your head around the fact that dominating in modern warfare means being competitive, if not dominant in an ALL of these domains. And frankly, since you're making the argument, the burden is on you to prove that China does not have the money/budget to build a second CV simultaneously.



The only thing that is right about your statement is that indeed, no one can predict the future and we will, "just have to wait and see".

The appropriate translation for 废话 would be "no sh*t".

There are may things they can build from available dockyard space, a lot more DDGs, FDGs, new class of corvettes, more LHDs, unmanned platforms, etc. Now I agree with you that for a country with the money, shipbuilding capacity, and nuclear power industry of China, building CV(N)s doesn't necessarily have to be a monumental undertaking as it is with every other country in history, but it needs to be weighed against other options like building the aforementioned ships or even resources for building subs which I think should be priority number one. The resources required to build one additional CV(N) can build quite a few other platforms which may be more cost effective.

Like @HailingTX20 said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. The CSSC statement is frankly quite vague. All it really says is they're building a lot of things, the "big dumpling" could really be anything. All ships are pretty big relative to say tanks or aircrafts, so it could really be referring to any type of ship. It doesn't even have to be military vessels. It's not impossible for China to be building 2 or even 3 carriers at once, but I think it's entirely right to temper the enthusiasm there a bit.

 

[Wrought]

I think all users, moderators included, should try to use respectful and conciliatory language, particularly if those they are speaking with adopts that approach. I don't really agree with how certain moderators have posted in recent months, particularly as they should be setting an example of good behavior.
It could be a second language issue, in which case I am more understanding, but we should be at least self aware of how we may be perceived.

Civility is all well and good, but it comes second to credibility in my book. There is certainly no shortage of fools—in any language—going around making wild claims without anything close to the required evidence. In my personal opinion, the mods are far too lenient when it comes to tolerating such nonsense. I can go to many places to read nationalist nonsense—again, in any language—but there are only a few places with as much value-add as (some) SDF contributors.

Again this is just my opinion, but if folks have nothing of substance to contribute then they should just learn how to shut up and listen. And no, speaking Mandarin does not qualify as any special talent; there are well over a billion of us, and plenty here who don't editorialize their translations beyond all reason.

 

[TK3600]

Didnt we get photos of EMAL modules on a yard a while ago?