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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
GulfLander said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907881108118888885
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907974994166165804
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RAND recommends that Lai Qingde and his gang :

- increase its defense budget (already higher in percentage than that of all its neighbors).
- go into "war economy" mode by "strengthening its resilience", while admitting that this exercise is constrained by the parliamentary majority, which does not want war.
- "get rid of [democratic] limits by brute force if necessary". (President Lai will have to overcome these limits, either by creating coalitions or by resorting to brute force).
As I explained in recent interviews, the South Korean scenario of a self-inflicted coup by the ruling party to get rid of the opposition is quite plausible in Taiwan, and today officially recommended in high places by Washington.

The KMT will have to fight a second civil war.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Eventine said:
What's funny is you don't need all this. You just need to do what Beijing has always done to obtain the effect it wants. Education and propaganda.

The current generation of 25+ people are largely a lost cause as they have already formulated their mind set based on their generation's education and propaganda, which was to have less kids, get better careers, and be more selfish. At best, they can be convinced through incentives to not completely crash the birth rate, but correcting their already formed world views will be difficult, if not impossible.

But the <10 years old population can be influenced through proper education and media propaganda. This will create a demographic gap, but only for about 15 years, because China's demographics problems won't hit until ~15-20 years later, by which time today's <10 years old population will be having children, who in turn will mature in 10-15 years into the work force. China can tank a decade and a half of economic slow down, before the next generation is ready to take up the task.

The main problem facing China today is not "lack of material abundance." As stated before, people in much poorer countries have tons of children. Material abundance isn't really the key to fertility unless your country literally cannot feed itself. The key is the culture of people - especially women - choosing to be "single, free, and fancy." Because they're afraid of pain / hard work, terrified of losing social status, and contemptuous towards family values.

You cannot correct a problem like this via financial incentives alone. No amount of making it easier to have children & buy houses will incentivize people who resent any sort of limit to their freedom to get married or have children. You have to actually change the culture, like what Trump is doing - although in a rather clumsy way because it's not easy for him to take over all the media propaganda in the US, while it is much easier for the Chinese government to do so.

To start, stop all those feminists on Chinese social media telling women to prioritize themselves and not get married or have kids because "all men are terrible."
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If we look at this historically, education isn't a great solution. Look at communist era Romania. They started with education like teaching girls about the benefits of motherhood and went totalitarian quickly.

Every country experienced a population boom in 1950s- 1960s as late industrial tech and associated improvements in calories reached people with remaining agricultural values including in developed countries.

You can't bring that back, as young people don't have remaining agricultural values anymore, not even actual farmers in China. When even India is experiencing crashing fertility rates this becomes obvious: rural Indians are cramming JEE to become IT technicians, not wanting a big farming family.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
StraightEdge said:
This didn't age too well; not even 24 hours.

View attachment 149376
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But to be fair. Usually China doesn’t immediately retaliate lol.

China won’t retaliate - Western Economists / Think Tanks

China retaliates

9ayWKzZ.png
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