Miscellaneous News

plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Ringsword said:
Do they westoids/know that the slur "gook" is the word country in Korean which is quite close to Cantonese "gohk" which is pronounced nearly the same as many Korean ,Japanese,Vietnamese loan words from China(Tang dynasty era) and the modern Chinese Mandarin/GuoYu "Guo" -country.
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If there is ever a foolproof reality check to let you know you are fighting for the wrong side, having a racist slur being made your call sign is surely it.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Neurosmith said:
If the USN has trouble resolving the Iran issue, then the PLAN would really have a tough time managing the Taiwan issue. It'd do everyone best to watch the Iran development with curiosity rather than glee.
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Most random, loaded comparison ever. Actually, Iran far dwarfs Taiwan in power and size; China's military is a rival to America's with superior tech in some aspect, superior development speed in all aspects. PRC is 100 miles from the ROC while the US is oceans away. You could not have made a more nonsensical statement.
 
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ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
Most random, loaded comparison ever. Actually, Iran far dwarfs Taiwan in power and size; China's military is a rival to America's with superior tech in some aspect, superior development speed in all aspects. PRC is 100 miles from the ROC while the US is oceans away. You could not have made a more nonsensical statement.
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Lol Iran doesn't really "dwarf" Taiwan in power, for one they have basically 0 airpower to speak of. The best I can say for them is their missile forces seem better, but tbh it's not clear if they're actually good or just good on paper, or whether they've invested in the other infrastructure you need to make them work well in a war. It's not a question of whether they can resist or prevail against a US/Israeli campaign, but just how much damage they can inflict on the USN in particular while getting pummeled from the air. Unfortunately, I have a fairly high probability mass on a rather lackluster/anticlimactic outcome where their anti-shipping attacks don't see much more success than the Houthis and both sides sue for peace rather quickly after the conflict begins with nobody really achieving anything meaningful.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Trump aide says tariffs will raise $6 trillion, which would be largest tax hike in US history​

White House aide Peter Navarro said Sunday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs to bring in $6 trillion in revenue in the next decade, which could amount to the largest tax hike in US history.

Even when adjusting for inflation, that amount would be triple the tax increase put in place in 1942 to pay the cost of fighting World War II.

Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, insists it’s not a tax increase but a tax cut — echoing the Trump administration’s repeated belief that tariffs will be paid not by American consumers but by businesses in other countries or the countries themselves.

“The message is that tariffs are tax cuts, tariffs are jobs, tariffs are national security,” Navarro said on Fox News Sunday. “Tariffs are great for America. They will make America great again.”

But most economists say US-imposed tariffs are paid by American businesses and consumers in the form of higher prices on imported goods, not paid by foreigners.

Trump plans to announce additional tariffs on Wednesday, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day,” on all manner of imported goods as retaliation for what he sees as unfair barriers to US exports to other countries. Trump has already announced tariffs on all goods from China, Mexico and Canada, and this week a 25% tariff on all imported cars is set to take effect.

Navarro said the tariffs will set the stage for tax cuts to be passed by Congress later this year, But the tariff revenue figures that Navarro quoted would be a huge tax increase for Americans in the short term, if they happen.

The non-auto tariffs alone “are going to raise about $600 billion (a year), about $6 trillion over a 10-year period,” Navarro said. Cars, he said, would add another $100 billion annually.

It’s not clear how Navarro calculated this $700 billion annual figure, since the details of these tariffs have yet to be fully disclosed. It’s also not clear, and perhaps unlikely, that Americans will continue to buy as many imported goods if prices are hiked due to the cost of the tariffs.

To reach Navarro’s estimate, it would take a 25% tariff on virtually all $3.3 trillion in goods imported by US businesses and consumers in 2024. And that’s not going to happen.

Canadian energy imports will be hit with a 10% tariff, not 25%, and Canada is the largest source of the nation’s petroleum imports. Chinese goods mostly will have a 20% tariff. In addition, Trump has said not all goods would be hit by tariffs — only goods from countries that have what the administration considers to have “unfair” trade policies towards the United States.

What’s more, Trump’s on-again-off-again approach to tariffs so far means the effective rate may not be able to bring in $700 billion regardless. Timeframes for levying them may be delayed, and some countries may reach deals with the Trump administration to eliminate tariffs, for example.

Plus, the $6 trillion figure implies that Americans wouldn’t change their purchasing behavior. That’s exactly what the tariffs are intended to do: Get consumers to buy American (and get foreign and multinational businesses to shift production to new US factories).

So at this stage, it’s simply not possible to know exactly how much revenue America will bring in from tariffs.

But even if Navarro’s proposed figure is hugely inflated, the cost of tariffs on a dollar basis is still likely to represent a huge tax increase unlike anything seen in US history.

Navarro’s predictions in context

On a percentage basis, the 1942 tax bill that raised money to fight World War II is the largest tax increase in US history, according to a 2006 analysis by the Treasury Department. That raised $10 billion a year in 1942, or $200 billion today when adjusted for inflation.

However, at the time, that tax increase was a much larger share of the nation’s gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation’s economic activity. It equaled about 5% of 1942’s GDP according to the Treasury Department analysis; today, $600 billion would be only about 2% of current GDP.

On a dollar basis, the largest previous increase — not adjusted for inflation — is the Affordable Care Act. Also known as Obamacare, the ACA was passed in 2009 and at that time was projected to raise tax revenue by $486 billion.

But that was over a 10-year period — less in a decade than Navarro is predicting Trump’s tariffs will raise in one year. What’s more: One of those increases in taxes under the ACA, a penalty on those Americans who didn’t get health insurance, was later repealed by Congress, reducing the tax impact of that law.

Critics of the Trump administration’s tariff plans say they will create tremendous cost increases for American consumers and will be a drag on the economy.

“That is a tax,” said Sen. Mark Warner in an interview on Fox immediately after Navarro’s appearance. “That money doesn’t come falling out of the sky. That money comes because (the price of) these products will go up, Americans will pay more. We’re talking a $700 billion tax,” he said, adding the $100 billion that Navarro says auto-specific tariffs will raise in the first year.

“It insults the intelligence of the American people when he’s saying the government is going to collect $700 billion a year,” he said, “and somehow that’s not going to show up in costs.”

‘$100 billion with the auto tariffs alone’

The auto industry has been a major focus for the Trump administration in its strategy to increase tariffs.

“We’re going to raise about $100 billion with the auto tariffs alone,” Navarro predicted Sunday.

In addition to the 25% tariff on all imported cars announced last week and scheduled to take effect this week, Trump has said he plans soon to impose additional tariffs on imported auto parts, which are used in every car built at a US assembly plant.

Navarro said the administration then plans to provide tax credits to people who buy “American” cars. He did not specify what car purchases would qualify for such a tax credit. No car built at a US auto assembly plant is made with only American parts. Most depend on imported parts for more than half of their content.

Although Navarro says these levies will force automakers to shift production to US plants and create jobs here, experts and auto industry executives say that change would take years to accomplish, if it happens at all. In the meantime, US auto jobs could be lost.
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“The message is that tariffs are tax cuts, tariffs are jobs, tariffs are national security,” Navarro said on Fox News Sunday. “Tariffs are great for America. They will make America great again.”
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Tax hikes are tax cuts.
 
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I

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
daifo said:
No matter the amount of hopium/copium that this Bloomberg reporter has taken over the past decade to write thousands of anti-china reports and tweets... he finally broke :D

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1906690265932284071
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People always make the fallacy of hindsight, believing empires that fell in the past were all aware of their fall while it's happening. Americans only think they're giving up their empire for no reason because they're living it, while historians of the future will know America's fall started with Breton Woods 2 and liberalism.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
daifo said:
No matter the amount of hopium/copium that this Bloomberg reporter has taken over the past decade to write thousands of anti-china reports and tweets... he finally broke :D

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1906690265932284071
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Someone retweet the link to the XJP Thoughts thread here:

Official Xi Jinping Thought discussion thread

I am seeing lots of government policy aiding stock market this year. I believe the whole "economy over common prosperity" thing is a greater gambit to make China a global financial market. They are prepared to catch all the capital flight from US in case of eratic Trump policy. For this...
www.sinodefenceforum.com

Might as well as get a head start when all the rich people will be doing it.
 
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