Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

[Minm]

It seems likely. The judicial crisis is enflaming the divisions within Israeli society to the point that officials warn it’s leading to civil war. So fractures are opening. His long legacy of being PM of Israel numerous times is washed over because of the failures of October 7th and the horrors of Gaza. At this point he is desperate. What would be a good way to keep Israel united(temporarily),distract from his judicial woes and erase the October 7th failures? War with Iran. I’m calling it now everything we see from Trump and Netanyahu shows war with Iran is coming.

The collapse of Syria gives the IAF a pathway to bomb Iran even if the Arab monarchies don’t allow Israel to use their airspace. Trump’s ultimatum to Iran recently. Iran said they won’t negotiate with Trump. There has been suspicious US recon on the Iranian coast the last few days. There was a report in the WSJ back in January that Israel is preparing for strikes against Iran. And that they plan to do it in 6-8 months. That is around summer time. When the weather permits aerial strikes. So everything is leading to this. And this time around Trump has surrounded himself with loyal Christian Zionist who salivate at the idea of war with Iran. Trump isn’t going to run again for office. So this is a way to cement his legacy as the one that finally dealt with the ayatollahs. If I were I betting I would say it’s 75% chance of a Great War between Iran and the US.

They don't want to fight someone that can strike them in return. We saw how little damage Israel can do to Iran in a major operation last year. And without Assad, Iran has far fewer commitments in the region other than the survival of Hezbollah, which seems certain anyway given the threats to Shia Lebanese people. With no Iranian troops in Syria and very few supplies going to Lebanon, there's just no reason to fight.

Meanwhile an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities will just mean that Iran is going to do a nuclear test. How is the US or Israel supposed to secretly prepare for a strike that destroys the whole uranium stockpile in one go? And if they don't manage to do it, Iran will be fully justified in going nuclear. At current production rates, Iran will soon have enough uranium for 10-20 bombs. The time for a western attack has passed

The refusal to negotiate is just public signalling anyway. The ayatollah is sending a letter to reply to trump's letter. Isn't that the definition of negotiations?

 

[Virtup]

I have a "small" question. If Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities, which are "supposedly" civilian in nature, what's to stop Iran form Hitting back at Israeli nuclear sites? They've already threatened to do so, and they've proven they can punch through the toughest air defences.

 

[Maikeru]

They don't want to fight someone that can strike them in return. We saw how little damage Israel can do to Iran in a major operation last year. And without Assad, Iran has far fewer commitments in the region other than the survival of Hezbollah, which seems certain anyway given the threats to Shia Lebanese people. With no Iranian troops in Syria and very few supplies going to Lebanon, there's just no reason to fight.

Meanwhile an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities will just mean that Iran is going to do a nuclear test. How is the US or Israel supposed to secretly prepare for a strike that destroys the whole uranium stockpile in one go? And if they don't manage to do it, Iran will be fully justified in going nuclear. At current production rates, Iran will soon have enough uranium for 10-20 bombs. The time for a western attack has passed

The refusal to negotiate is just public signalling anyway. The ayatollah is sending a letter to reply to trump's letter. Isn't that the definition of negotiations?

That really depends on what the letter says!

 

[Minm]

That really depends on what the letter says!

So far it's just rumours, but there's this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903186854788337828

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1902654302088261894

"We’ll consider both threat & opportunity aspects"

If Iran is considering the opportunities of dealing with Trump, then a deal might be made. The conservatives are probably just stopping the "reformers" from giving away the nuclear program for some words and paper that the us can just take away again.

They could have burned the letter or refused to reply. Instead they received the letter with great ceremony and since then there's a huge debate about how to reply. Prople who dogmatically refuse to negotiate don't act like that, they just want to get a good deal and delay for as long as possible.

Iran is producing enough enriched uranium for a bomb every month, maybe more. The longer you wait, the more leverage Iran builds that can be traded and the closer you get to the sanctions snapback deadline.

 

[JJD1803]

They don't want to fight someone that can strike them in return. We saw how little damage Israel can do to Iran in a major operation last year. And without Assad, Iran has far fewer commitments in the region other than the survival of Hezbollah, which seems certain anyway given the threats to Shia Lebanese people. With no Iranian troops in Syria and very few supplies going to Lebanon, there's just no reason to fight.

Meanwhile an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities will just mean that Iran is going to do a nuclear test. How is the US or Israel supposed to secretly prepare for a strike that destroys the whole uranium stockpile in one go? And if they don't manage to do it, Iran will be fully justified in going nuclear. At current production rates, Iran will soon have enough uranium for 10-20 bombs. The time for a western attack has passed

The refusal to negotiate is just public signalling anyway. The ayatollah is sending a letter to reply to trump's letter. Isn't that the definition of negotiations?

So far it's just rumours, but there's this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903186854788337828

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1902654302088261894

"We’ll consider both threat & opportunity aspects"

If Iran is considering the opportunities of dealing with Trump, then a deal might be made. The conservatives are probably just stopping the "reformers" from giving away the nuclear program for some words and paper that the us can just take away again.

They could have burned the letter or refused to reply. Instead they received the letter with great ceremony and since then there's a huge debate about how to reply. Prople who dogmatically refuse to negotiate don't act like that, they just want to get a good deal and delay for as long as possible.

Iran is producing enough enriched uranium for a bomb every month, maybe more. The longer you wait, the more leverage Iran builds that can be traded and the closer you get to the sanctions snapback deadline.

What the Iranian have stated is they won’t respond to threats in the midst of negotiations. I do agree I think the conservatives have taken over the nuclear issue. Zarif was pushed out of the government a few weeks ago. And the President of Iran said he follows what the ayatollah says. I do not know what deal could be made. The JCPOA was the best deal for both sides. Iran feels burned about it as they abided by it. Obama and Trump violated the terms of the JCPOA. And Biden didn’t even bother to re-instate it. So for Iran their demands are going to be much harsher. Trumps demands are going to be harsher. At this point when both sides are so far apart it’s going to take much more than 2 months to hammer out a deal. Although I wouldnt be surprised if Trump keeps extending the negotiations every two months until there is a deal. Look at his tariff policy. Iran isn’t going to give up its allies in the Axis of resistance nor its conventional ballistic missile capabilities. I could see negotiations collapse rapidly, and that assumes there will be negotiations to begin with. Iran is going to send the letter to Trump and wait and see what his repo we will be. If he responds well then there could be a possibility of negotiations. If he responds poorly then that’s it.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

CENTCOM may have the potential to see 3 CSGs in a given period:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903221514599817659

 

[Minm]

What the Iranian have stated is they won’t respond to threats in the midst of negotiations. I do agree I think the conservatives have taken over the nuclear issue. Zarif was pushed out of the government a few weeks ago. And the President of Iran said he follows what the ayatollah says. I do not know what deal could be made. The JCPOA was the best deal for both sides. Iran feels burned about it as they abided by it. Obama and Trump violated the terms of the JCPOA. And Biden didn’t even bother to re-instate it. So for Iran their demands are going to be much harsher. Trumps demands are going to be harsher. At this point when both sides are so far apart it’s going to take much more than 2 months to hammer out a deal. Although I wouldnt be surprised if Trump keeps extending the negotiations every two months until there is a deal. Look at his tariff policy. Iran isn’t going to give up its allies in the Axis of resistance nor its conventional ballistic missile capabilities. I could see negotiations collapse rapidly, and that assumes there will be negotiations to begin with. Iran is going to send the letter to Trump and wait and see what his repo we will be. If he responds well then there could be a possibility of negotiations. If he responds poorly then that’s it.

For Iran, it's all about the UN sanctions snapback deadline in October. They have to act friendly with the west until then. But after that, they'll be able to negotiate more freely.

By now, I'd hope that even the most pro west politician knows that a deal with the western bloc is always short term so you can only offer them small, easily reversible concessions in return. The trump ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon only lasted for a couple of weeks. A new Iran deal will be similar. Best to only start negotiating seriously just before the snapback deadline

 

[RottenPanzer]

What's the current situation on Gaza lately?

 

[FriedButter]

And the President of Iran said he follows what the ayatollah says. I do not know what deal could be made. The JCPOA was the best deal for both sides. Iran feels burned about it as they abided by it. Obama and Trump violated the terms of the JCPOA. And Biden didn’t even bother to re-instate it. So for Iran their demands are going to be much harsher. Trumps demands are going to be harsher. At this point when both sides are so far apart it’s going to take much more than 2 months to hammer out a deal.

The US terms are more or less an ultimatum for capitulation. Because realistically, nothing short of total capitulation is going to satisfy the hawks in Washington to agree on any deals.

There are new demands coming from the White House. Total dismantling of the nuclear programme which includes nuclear power plants. So no nuclear electricity for Iran.

And on Wednesday, senior White House officials again said Iran must do away with its nuclear programme entirely, leaving all uranium enrichment activity, even at low levels.

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This is on top of the previous known demands, accepting political changes, cease foreign activities, restricting defensive capabilities, restrictions on civilian/military production, and limits on the missile program. That Lavrov and Khamenei mentioned less then 2 weeks ago.

 

[Boneroyalx]

I think a few posts got deleted. I checked and this got up to page 614.