PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

votran

New Member
Registered Member
Right. That is probably the achilles heel of the PLAN amphibious fleet. These types of relatively LO ASM are detected late, at close range, so medium/long range area defence are at best of marginal utility. It will come down largely to point defence of each ship or group of ships.

If most small formations of ships crossing (which would be amphibs and even civilian sea lifts) do not have CIWS or equivalent, then loss ratio would be very high over time. That would not be sustainable if you want to keep the land forces supplied and reinfoced.

It's really a quite easy fix; would cost some money to install self contained CIWS units on most amphibs, but is actually quite affordable considering the alternatives. If you have all medium sized amphibs having at least one 730/1130, and one H/PJ-17 for each samll (500 tonnes or less) amphib, then they would be a much tougher nut to crack.

In an expanded beach head scenario, they would be at the periphery anyways, able to guard the flanks, whereas civilian sea lifts would be near the center of the beach head, furthest from the perimeters on land. There would still be losses, but most of the LRASM can be intercepted by landing covoys of amphibs going to and fro the perimeter sides of the beach.
air-defense is the job of x25 052d , x40 054A and x10 055 , and a bunch of combat aircraft armed with PL-12/15 not the ciws on landing ship or any other support ship

if china worry about their transport/support ship CIWS aren't good enough again incoming missile then china should forget about taking over taiwan

airforce/navy can't do the job they supposed to do , what the point trying anymore
 

00CuriousObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Another one, found in a Weibo comment

weUoHyp.png
 

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
Given Lai's statement taking mainland as foreign hostile forces, which is a serious escalation, should we expect another military operation/rehearsal named 2025A coming in days ?! :eek:
Lai said more than that.

国务院台办发言人陈斌华13日表示,赖清德今天召开所谓“国安高层会议”并在会后讲话中,再度宣扬两岸“互不隶属”的分裂谬论,妄称“台湾是一个主权独立的民主国家”,极力渲染“大陆威胁”,将大陆界定为“境外敌对势力”,并抛出所谓“因应五方面威胁”的“17项策略”,“台独”立场之顽固、挑衅对抗之猖狂,再度证明其人是不折不扣的“两岸和平破坏者”“台海危机制造者”。
I was expecting another rehearsal, but maybe PLA has already normalized it and can do it whenever now without being reactive.
 

AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
Given Lai's statement taking mainland as foreign hostile forces, which is a serious escalation, should we expect another military operation/rehearsal named 2025A coming in days ?! :eek:

Here's full version of Lai's speech on 13rd Mar 2025.


Related: Taiwanese entertainers walking cross-strait political tightrope.

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