China's Space Program Thread II

[by78]

Right on cue, the phase II expansion of Hainan Commercial Spaceport has begun. The two new launchpads will be ready for launch services within 18 to 24 months.

According to Mr. Yang Tianliang (杨天梁), the chairman of the Hainan Commercial Spaceport, launchpad no. 3 and 4 will add at least 32 launches to the spaceport's annual launch capacity. Altogether, the four launchpads will exceed 60 launches per year.

 

[by78]

A Long March 8 carrying a batch of Qianfan/G60 satellites is scheduled for launch on March 12. This will be the first flight from the launchpad no. 1 of Hainan Commercial Spaceport.

The Long March 8 Y6 has been transferred to the launchpad.

 

[peekaboo]

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Space Epoch preparing their hopper.

Stupid question but how do I embed twitter links?

 

[sunnymaxi]

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Space Epoch preparing their hopper.

Stupid question but how do I embed twitter links?

Just change x.com to twitter.com.. very simple

 

[tphuang]

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So Carlos slim canceled a major project with Starlink. This is a huge break for SpaceSail effort to expand in Latam market.

given the current fight between musk and European politicians, it’s possible China would have opportunities in more places we didn’t think was possible 2 months ago.

 

[antwerpery]

So Carlos slim canceled a major project with Starlink. This is a huge break for SpaceSail effort to expand in Latam market.

given the current fight between musk and European politicians, it’s possible China would have opportunities in more places we didn’t think was possible 2 months ago.

Too bad that Spacesail is nowhere near ready and is already heavily behind schedule. It has been 3 months into 2025 and there has only been a single spacesail launch, compare that with the twice weekly Starlink launches. They are 2-3 years away from global coverage at the rate that they are launching. Even Oneweb currently has more then 600 satellites in orbit, compared to Spacesail's 72. China has really dropped the ball here and with their rockets. The perfect opportunity to steal some market share from Starlink and even Oneweb of all companies has more then 8 times more satellites in orbit.

Can LATAM afford to wait another 2 years for Spacesail to achieve global coverage, and even then it will still be a fraction of the capability of Starlink, or will they go crawling back to Starlink after a year or two? I also won't rule out Project Kuiper ramping up heavily in 1-2 years now that New Glenn is operational and might be reusable soon, opening up even more competition for a fledgling Spacesail. Even Oneweb will probably be ramping up heavily in light of the recent situation, even if they will likely have to pay SpaceX for the launches.

 

[peekaboo]

Project Kuiper

Can I just point out that the only Kuiper launch occurred in October of *2023* with no further launches since then... seems like they are having trouble ramping up too.

SpaceSail, on the other hand, faced some delays due to orbit-keeping problems with one of the early batches. If I had to compare SpaceSail and Kuiper on their ability to ramp up quickly, I would pick SpaceSail.

I also won't rule out Project Kuiper ramping up heavily in 1-2 years now that New Glenn is operational and might be reusable soon, opening up even more compeition.

According to employee comments on the Blue Origin reddit, they aren't launching New Glenn again till Q3 2025. It'll take them a while after that to ramp up after that. Other than that, Kuiper has 36 launches booked for ULA Vulcan and 18 on Ariane 6. Vulcan's launch cadence is in the drain and I would expect European payloads to take the priority for Arianespace.

Even Oneweb currently has more then 600 satellites in orbit, compared to Spacesail's 72.

Oneweb started launching their constellation in 2019, and SpaceSail started in 2024. So not exactly fair to compare the two launch rates. Oneweb relies on Falcon 9 (American) and Soyuz (Russian) rockets to access orbit, which isn't the best for Europe or Latam moving away from reliance on the US.

I would say Oneweb or SpaceSail is the best immediate alternative to Starlink, all things considered. Oneweb is probably quite a bit more expensive but I don't have the data for that.

 

[antwerpery]

SpaceSail, on the other hand, faced some delays due to orbit-keeping problems with one of the early batches. If I had to compare SpaceSail and Kuiper on their ability to ramp up quickly, I would pick SpaceSail.

The difference being that Kuiper has a heavy lift rocket in operation that's maybe a year and a handful of launches from being reusable. As we see with SpaceX, reusable rockets can ramp up quickly. With NG capable of 45 tons to LEO, almost twice of China's most powerful rocket, a single launch could launch around 70 satellites, almost the same amount that China launched so far.

According to employee comments on the Blue Origin reddit, they aren't launching New Glenn again till Q3 2025. It'll take them a while after that to ramp up after that.

I have no idea where you're getting your info from, because NG is launching a payload to Mars in March for NASA.

Oneweb started launching their constellation in 2019, and SpaceSail started in 2024. So not exactly fair to compare the two launch rates. Oneweb relies on Falcon 9 (American) and Soyuz (Russian) rockets to access orbit, which isn't the best for Europe or Latam moving away from reliance on the US.

And you have to ask yourself why did it take until 2024 for Spacesail to start launching when a small European company that went bankrupt once and has to launch on Indian, American and Russian rockets, started in 2019. Did China only take notice and start serious development when SpaceX started to get famous and when Starlink proved itself in Ukraine? China has the 2nd most launch capability in the world, and the world's largest and most developed electronic industry, but they started 5 years behind a small European company in such an important field because....?

Spacesail's launch rate isn't exactly awe inspiring, they were supposed to deploy 108 sats in 2024, they only launched 54, half of the planned number. We are 1/4 of the way into 2025 and there has been a single Spacesail launch. No idea when reusable rockets are coming, considering the amount of delays and mishaps in their development and how much the private rocket sector has been struggling.

And now is the best times to wrestle market share away from Starlink. Now now now, not 1-2 years from now when the situation might have changed dramatically. Would Europe be interested when they already have a rocky relationship with China and when Oneweb already has 8 times more satellites in orbit?. Would LATAM be interested when it's gonna take another 2 years for Spacesail to get global coverage, when they could just wait 2 years for Musk to stop being retarded or get assassinated or wait the same 2 years for project Kuiper to ramp up?

The situation would be a lot better if China already had a few hundred or a thousand satellites in orbit that could actually provide global coverage today, not 2 years from now.

 

[tphuang]

The difference being that Kuiper has a heavy lift rocket in operation that's maybe a year and a handful of launches from being reusable. As we see with SpaceX, reusable rockets can ramp up quickly. With NG capable of 45 tons to LEO, almost twice of China's most powerful rocket, a single launch could launch around 70 satellites, almost the same amount that China launched so far.

I have no idea where you're getting your info from, because NG is launching a payload to Mars in March for NASA.

And you have to ask yourself why did it take until 2024 for Spacesail to start launching when a small European company that went bankrupt once and has to launch on Indian, American and Russian rockets, started in 2019. Did China only take notice and start serious development when SpaceX started to get famous and when Starlink proved itself in Ukraine? China has the 2nd most launch capability in the world, and the world's largest and most developed electronic industry, but they started 5 years behind a small European company in such an important field because....?

Spacesail's launch rate isn't exactly awe inspiring, they were supposed to deploy 108 sats in 2024, they only launched 54, half of the planned number. We are 1/4 of the way into 2025 and there has been a single Spacesail launch. No idea when reusable rockets are coming, considering the amount of delays and mishaps in their development and how much the private rocket sector has been struggling.

And now is the best times to wrestle market share away from Starlink. Now now now, not 1-2 years from now when the situation might have changed dramatically. Would Europe be interested when they already have a rocky relationship with China and when Oneweb already has 8 times more satellites in orbit?. Would LATAM be interested when it's gonna take another 2 years for Spacesail to get global coverage, when they could just wait 2 years for Musk to stop being retarded or get assassinated or wait the same 2 years for project Kuiper to ramp up?

The situation would be a lot better if China already had a few hundred or a thousand satellites in orbit that could actually provide global coverage today, not 2 years from now.

SpaceSail has its own schedule in terms of ramp up and launches. It's probably behind schedule right now, but China does have a way of catching up quickly.

Fundamentally, China's LEO constellation program is tied to two things:
1) not having Starlink take over LEO space
2) 6G & smart phones

Nothing related to Ukraine

 

[by78]

A Long March 3B has successfully launched the Communication Technology Experimental Satellite No. 15 into orbit. This was the 562nd flight of the Long March series.