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GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member

"The risk for Taiwan with a ‘highly transactional’ President Trump​

Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State explains how Taiwan could become a bargaining chip in Trump’s trade negotiations with China.[...]"

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"Strengthening Central Asia-US Relations under the Trump Administration"
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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Down 190 billion is equal to 14 Ford-class aircraft carriers sunk if we just go by nominal value.
That's why I said this thing is technological/economic equivalent of a nuclear first strike. Can you imagine a world where 13 CVNs are sunk in a day and ICBMs don't fly?

Weibo guys are already dubbing it the "Spring Festival Offensive".
 

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
Down 190 billion is equal to 14 Ford-class aircraft carriers sunk if we just go by nominal value.
That's why I said this thing is technological/economic equivalent of a nuclear first strike. Can you imagine a world where 13 CVNs are sunk in a day and ICBMs don't fly?

Weibo guys are already dubbing it the "Spring Festival Offensive".
The effect might be big, but let's not forget it's just the side project of a small startup, a project that if not for the impact nobody would think unusual if it was not infact their latest. Also there's ByteDance Doubao.

I think the real implication isn't as much the models themselves as the absolute dominance in human talent implied by those models.
 

PCK11800

Just Hatched
Registered Member
That goes for both sides. The US also hasn't exercised its "nuclear" option with respect to economic warfare - not even on Huawei. It hasn't cut the company from the dollar transaction system, for example, and it hasn't applied similar sanctions to other leading Chinese companies like DJI, BYD, and Xiaomi, which Trump could certainly put on the table if he wanted to ignite Trade War 2.0.

It feels like much of what we're talking about now are just the light, probing attacks before the actual battle. Neither side has shown all their cards, and it would be foolish to assume the US is out of options just because it hasn't pressured harder.

The reality is that Trump is smart enough to understand that leverage comes from the threat of action, more so than the action itself. Biden did not understand this, which is why his "shock and awe" failed vis-a-vis Russia and actually strengthened Putin's hand. My guess is that Trump will make a similar move to try and squeeze a favorable deal out of China - he'll create a situation in which the bark is far worse than the bite, and hope Chinese negotiators will lose their nerve. Except this time, he'll also make the carrot sweeter to account for the US's relatively weaker position compared to 2018.

For what it's worth I agree broadly with what you are saying. The US is still the center of global finance backed with a bloated, yet incredibly powerful, military. They definitely still have plenty of options on the table yet to be exercised, although most probably will also hurt themselves as well.

I also feel like members here got a bit too drunk on all the winnings China has achieved lately and has descended nearly into r/worldnews level of posting :(
 
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