American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
Do you not trust FRED because they disagree with you?
There is about 20 trillion USD of residential mortgage debt outstanding in the US vs. like 5 trillion for CRE mortgages.
So while some of the ShitCoBanks in the US with 60% of their books in CRE are fucked, this is not an 'economy is going down the drain' moment.
Nope.
I don't trust it EXACTLY due to the fact it gets its data from the fed and other us government agencies.
One just needs to take a look at job numbers getting constantly revised up and down by like 10+% this year.
Some people just don't trust US Gov. agencies or any sort of data reporting really. Which is fine, I disagree, and a disagreement is miles better than getting chased out of forums or Discord servers for bringing up data. Which has happened for me for my "bullish" takes on the US economy.
Nah, I just don't trust data from the US gov due to a combination of reasons.
(Whether from the experience I had with government and data, but also just from the iceberg peaks that one can easily see, such as the (lmao) way they count homeless, CPI numbers (and it's actually so funny they invented 'core cpi' to kick out food and energy, when that's hugely important for the average American), the job numbers and how jumpy they have become in recent years and more).
Anyways, people are ofc free to trust whatever sources they want.
Financial Times. Note this represents serious underpricing of risk. By itself, this type of asset isn’t remotely systemic. But it is not a good sign.
Bloomberg
-Default rate for the assets reaches a 46-month high: JPMorgan
-Recovery rates for leveraged loans running well below average
Bloomberg
-Default rate for the assets reaches a 46-month high: JPMorgan
-Recovery rates for leveraged loans running well below average
proelite
Junior Member
@abenomics12345
4D-chess move? Not that I will give credit to Trump himself.
Do everything possible to increase inflation. i.e tariffs, removing illegals, making more stateside.
Slashing government budget.
High inflation makes it easier to pay the debt.
4D-chess move? Not that I will give credit to Trump himself.
Do everything possible to increase inflation. i.e tariffs, removing illegals, making more stateside.
Slashing government budget.
High inflation makes it easier to pay the debt.
nah, inflating away debt is a book move. also reduce gov spending is deflationary.
This only works if,
A. Deficits are reduced at the same time
or
B. Nominal revenues rise substantially faster than the debt
Neither are likely under Trump. In my opinion, the most catastrophic scenario for United States is one where US trade policies create high inflation, high military spending and tax cuts cause a large growth in the budget deficit, Fed's high interest rates (which might be raised further to combat inflation) create a business unfriendly environment causing a spike in unemployment.
This results in actual stagflation. Meaning a combination of high inflation, high or rising unemployment, and low economic growth.
Now I'm not saying that this will happen, or that this is even likely under Trump (IMO Congress will not pass the majority of his ideas), but it is a non-zero possibility. Perhaps even 10-20% if I had to put a random number on it.
