Worthless without looking at where other economies compete with EU products.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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This guy is just trash, seen his crap posted around the web before, he is the envy of all raccoons.
Tesla isn't running any JVs, or acquisitions, so from his #2 in his "China cycle", only espionage or reverse engineering would apply
However, we know that the majority of Chinese EVs are using LFP battery chemistry
Source:
(unlike that guy, I can give sources)
Tesla in fact, does not manufacture any LFP packs themselves, and sources them from CATL and BYD. In fact they were looking to purchase a LFP manufacturing line from CATL to move to Nevada
So in fact, Tesla is buying/utilizing Chinese technologies, not the other way around, thus there is no espionage or reverse engineering. Every point in 2 is busted, his cycle is proven to be garbage.
Guy is a moron, QED
If I had X/Twitter, I would post a
"Apparently Stanford gives degrees to anyone" slide.
1. Noah Smith (Noahpinion)
2. See above
Massive deflation in China due to the over-financialization in China with a severely underdeveloped financial sector and money-centered politics. Instead of finance serving its proper role in facilitating corporate investment, it went to chase speculative unproductive investment in residential real estate (instead of being channeled in debt/equity markets to fund corporate capital structures); yet China did nothing to block these developments, for fear of upsetting the suburban Karen’s of Yangzhou who would’ve lost money.
Now that the real estate bubble has popped; there is no other place to channel household savings other than to deposits at insolvent banks paying no interest, and this has caused a complete collapse in consumer confidence and they are doing hordes of precautionary savings, thus simulatojslt causing more deflation and severe declines in corporate investment, and declining wages., causing the deflationary spiral to continue.
what’s more - it’s clearly feeding into growth, China’s growth at 4% in 2Q24 has made China’s growth positively Latin American/Japanese and what’s even more surprising - multiple US states are growing faster than China. Heck, even Texas, with a gdppc well above the U.S. is growing substantially faster than China
That's not how global trade works. Prior to the break down of the trade order via deliberate US policy, comparative advantage led to market specialization, meaning that rather than try to compete in everything, each country picked a few industries they were proficient at and doubled down. Nobody - including the US - tried to "export everything."
You might as well argue that the US wasn't at the technological frontier because it didn't manufacture any of the advanced chips it needed for its devices or any of the equipment used to make those chips. I mean that's the whole reason for the CHIPS act.
Correct but flip to page 2 of the Industrial Organization textbook: when firms get large enough, there are diseconomies of scale and comparative advantages have increasing marginal costs. Thus for large population economies like the U.S. & EU, even with comparative advantages and open trade/investment, they have market presence in every NAICS and HS market segment. China’s lack of presence there is due to impotence.
Intel was on the technological frontier until 2018-ish when tsmc came out with 7nm. That the U.S. is generally on the technological frontier means there are of course, exceptions.
The US and the EU did not have competitive market presence in every segment. In industries dominated by Asian countries, like smart phones and OLED TVs, the EU was (and is) not competitive. The US was (and is) not competitive in commercial ship building or in high speed trains. If your standard is just the country has companies with marginal market share, then China could certainly claim much higher than 40% as well. In reality, the US (and the EU) was (and is) dependent on both each other and Asian countries for much of their industrial supply chains.
The standard is substantial market presence and any exporter is inherently competitive (foreigners have no obligation to buy anything). That China can’t duplicate even half of euro area exports indicates that China is far from the technological frontier (and is what other evidence points to as well - low GDPPCs and F500 firms from China mostly being smokestack SOEs)
China is behind only in semiconductors, aircraft, and pharmaceuticals. They already conquered the machine tools, high speed rail, shipbuilding, automobile, nuclear power, sectors. Even in the sectors China is still behind in I would say they will be competitive in a decade, and reach parity or even superiority in two decades.
Simple question - can the EU duplicate half of China's exports?
Yes. People need to dig really deep to find products that don’t have complementarities. And this is the EU, not even the U.S. (with substantially more technical complexity and product lines).