You have to make a difference between commerce and strategic vulnerabilities.I wouldn't call it just a "few" vulnerabilities related to energy, food and certain technologies that require western components.
There's so much interdependence because China went all in with globalisation.
Even by 2030, there will still be much of this, particularly around semiconductors, because it takes years of effort and is arguably the most difficult industry to develop.
But my guess is that by 2035, China will manage to build out an entirely separate, world-class semiconductor supply chain at scale.
Chine went all in with globalisation because globalisation basically was creating full industries and supply chains in China.
This has been tremendously helpful for China to train skill workers, managers, engineers, etc.
There is no interdependence, there is dependency of China.
Don’t believe western propaganda when they say that China need them to buy their products. This is same delusion they suffered with Russia x10.
For any country is easy to redirect is production to fill internal consumption or to find new customers.
The west without China would become Venezuela under sanctions . Basically 0 products. They have 0 leverage there, although they still didn’t learn after the fiasco of breaking Russia though not buying gas.
On the other hand China really had strategic vulnerabilities in supply of energy, food, aircrafts qndin some parts of microelectronics supply chain. The strait of Malacca was a classical issue
The first 2 basically have disappeared since Russia can provide anything China needs through their own frontier, and they are working in expanding this capacity and commerce. China still may want to have some alternative suppliers but it is basically inmune to the West already.
The microelectronics supply chain will be solved even before 2030 at the current path of Chinese lithography.
Aircrafts maybe a little bit more time but for 2030 there should be enough production to absolute non western aircraft’s between China and Russia. Chinese Comac still used western equipment but I suppose for 2030 this could be solved, and in anyway Russian MC21 is in theory ready this year so they could always buy from the Russian or buy the licences and just produce in a FAL in China
