Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns U.S. is ‘on the brink’ and estimates a more than 1 in 3 chance of civil war
In , Dalio, 74, detailed his research in which he found a 35 percent to 40 percent chance that the U.S. will have a civil war.
“We are now on the brink,” Dalio said. Still, he said, it’s not known yet “if we will cross over into much more turbulent times.”
Dalio said a modern-day civil war wouldn’t necessarily be one where people “grab guns and start shooting,” although it is possible.
What he means by civil war, Dalio explained, is an acceleration of political polarization where people would “move to different states that are more aligned with what they want,” and one in which people wouldn’t follow the decisions and direction of federal authorities.
The billionaire said he thinks this November’s election is the most critical one in his lifetime. The outcome this fall will determine if the risks he sees could actually happen, Dalio argued.
Dalio declined to back either President Biden or former President Trump, but he said he recently attended a Taylor Swift concert and said, “partly as a joke,” that he would support her, if she ever decided to run.
Dalio argued in the interview that investors should move some of their money to foreign markets because the U.S. government’s rising debt levels may hit treasury bonds.
I would give it about >90% chance at this point, Mr Dalio, but I get that you want to deliver "shock therapy" to your country to "wake up", on time, to preserve your wealth and not collapse for real, and not to worsen it and make it even more premature with your statements. If it were about what he really thinks in his heart is likely, however, then his true estimate would probably be aligned much closer to mine. (, and yet those smart elites don't see the full picture). Perhaps this is also why there has been literally zero new polling done on this topic since then, despite it being so interesting and crucial topic.
Last edited:
