The War in the Ukraine

[Deleted member 27830]

F-16 has significance of able to utilize US weapon stockpile.

In my opinion, the F-16 will not benefit Ukraine militarily regardless of what armament it can carry, and they probably know it, especially when you consider the fact that their Su-27 inventory did not help that much despite being fully integrated with their armed forces.

2nd one is my guess, but it also opens up possibility Ukraine could fly the jet in NATO country to repair safely. It would be hard to identify if Ukrainian plane landed outside the country, since it is same model.

The region is likely heavily monitored from Transnistria, Kaliningrad and satellites. The planes may even decide to fly too low and get caught on camera by some random person with a phone. NATO may even decide to blow the whistle with the intention of widening the conflict. Also I thought I read somewhere that China was helping in that regard as well, but I've no method to verify that claim. To sum it up, if NATO decide to go that route, they won't be able to conceal it.

 

[Stealthflanker]

2nd one is my guess, but it also opens up possibility Ukraine could fly the jet in NATO country to repair safely. It would be hard to identify if Ukrainian plane landed outside the country, since it is same model.

Yeah, operating entirely from NATO bases in Romania or even Moldova is possibility. Although this would means they cannot cover the eastern front.

However the could probably contest Russians in airspace above Black Sea.

 

[SolarWarden]

In my opinion, the F-16 will not benefit Ukraine militarily regardless of what armament it can carry, and they probably know it, especially when you consider the fact that their Su-27 inventory did not help that much despite being fully integrated with their armed forces.

Because Ukraine SU-27's don't have active seeker missiles and radars are outdated. F-16's will likely come with Aim-120c7's and if they come with Harm receiving pod and centerline EW pod they will be able to take advantage of the Harms 150km range.

 

[tank3487]

Yeah, operating entirely from NATO bases in Romania or even Moldova is possibility. Although this would means they cannot cover the eastern front.

However the could probably contest Russians in airspace above Black Sea.

Such options would open pandora box. Because it would make such NATO bases valid military targets and this can escalate uncontrollable which i suppose are something that both sides would prefer to evade.

 

[Deleted member 27830]

Because Ukraine SU-27's don't have active seeker missiles and radars are outdated. F-16's will likely come with Aim-120c7's and if they come with Harm receiving pod and centerline EW pod they will be able to take advantage of the Harms 150km range.

These are big ifs. The Russians already have better BVR missiles, better radars, better air defences, better training, and better planes. There is no magic weapon that could save Ukraine on the battlefield. The F-16s will fail just like the ATACMS, Patriots, HIMARS, and Storm Shadows all failed.

Such options would open pandora box. Because it would make such NATO bases valid military targets and this can escalate uncontrollable which i suppose are something that both sides would prefer to evade.

Also waives article 5.

 

[TK3600]

Such options would open pandora box. Because it would make such NATO bases valid military targets and this can escalate uncontrollable which i suppose are something that both sides would prefer to evade.

The bet is it is hard to prove so plausibly deniable. NATO could claim unprovoked attack and escalate.

 

[Deleted member 27830]

The bet is it is hard to prove so plausibly deniable. NATO could claim unprovoked attack and escalate.

Escalate to what, nuclear war?

 

[Stealthflanker]

Escalate to what, nuclear war?

Direct NATO intervention.. They will deploy troops, i mean real one not covert in Ukraine.

 

[gelgoog]

Like I already said it is highly likely the US will put NATO pilots flying F-16s in Ukraine. They might be flying latest F-16s with AESA radar and AIM-120D. With the provision that they can't operate East of the Dnieper so the pilots won't get captured by the Russians.

 

[Deleted member 27830]

Direct NATO intervention.. They will deploy troops, i mean real one not covert in Ukraine.

Which means total deterioration of diplomatic channels, which also means the nuclear deterrent policy has failed to function as intended and the Russian MOD would now be forced to deploy nukes into battle literally by law, in order to restore faith in their nuclear deterrence policy.

Like I already said it is highly likely the US will put NATO pilots flying F-16s in Ukraine. They might be flying latest F-16s with AESA radar and AIM-120D. With the provision that they can't operate East of the Dnieper so the pilots won't get captured by the Russians.

Putin already signed a decree in 2020 that states two very important and legally binding points.

Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to:

1. A nuclear strike on Russia.
2. Conventional aggression that threatens Russia's existence, aka Russia losing the conflict in Ukraine.