China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AndrewS]

China itself suggested that others could be allowed to make use of the facilities the new islands provides.

However, that was before all the bad blood with the FON patrols, so whether China still feel so generous is very much up for debate.

I think even if China was to offer to open up their bases for use by others, who gets to be on the invite list would very much depend on their attitude and behaviour thus far.

Had Australia asked before mounting FON patrols themselves, China might have indeed indicated that they would be welcome to make use of the facilities. But I think the Australians are being very optimistic if they think China will still be willing to roll out the welcoming matt now that they have effectively taken sides against China.

Although there is still a chance that China will forgive them their transgressions, since it has done in a relatively low-key fashion, and limited in scope. Especially as doing so would neatly undermine a lot of the opposition to China's island building, and also potentially drive a wedge between the Australians and Americans.

The USN would firmly be on the "not welcome" list irrespective of what China agree with the Australians in my view.

I agree this is the best course of action.

But I think that an invitation for the USA to utilise the new SCS islands should be held open - on the condition that they agree to certain terms set by China

 

[AndrewS]

A very reasonable question by the Australian FM, and one which I hope the Chinese will give a sensible and positive answer to.

I remember late last year I suggested that the islands could eventually be used to host some limited multinational exercises such as for search and rescue and disaster relief. Now that I think about it they could also be very useful for assisting those efforts in event of an actual real world event.

Obviously use of the reclaimed islands would be contingent on an agreement by China first, but acknowledging that fact should not be an issue for China.

Remember that at the end of the day, China is only truly secure in the SCS when it leads some sort of security order in the SCS and that there is mutual recognition of this fact.

By definition, that requires regular and sustained cooperation with all the littoral nations around the SCS, but not necessarily with outside powers like Japan/US/Australia.

 

[AndrewS]

It's like western leaders cannot learn. It's the same pattern over and over again.

They push China; China says, 'don't push us or there will be consequences', western leaders ignore or dismiss it and pushes China again; consequences happen and western leaders go 'WTF man'?

In terms of overall strategy, it's just absolutely silly what the west is doing in the SCS.

It is trying to make a fight over an issue that was never really threatened, doing it in an area who's geography overwhelmingly favours China, and in a situation where the balance of power and available options overwhelming favours China.

China has a vast range of gradual escalation options in the region, the overwhelming majority of which falls well below the threshold of triggering armed conflict. The west has exceptionally few options it can use without triggering a war.

As has been just demonstrated, China can deploy defensive missiles on its islands. An escalation, but a small one that both benefits China and further its interests, while at the same time nowhere near strong enough to warrant any of the counter escalation moves the west can reasonably take without an unacceptable risk of triggering an actual shooting war.

This is just the start. After fighters and SAMs, China could deploy AShMs, LACMs, even ballistic missiles to it's islands. Each done using salami tactics and in response to further western moves.

Even without those new islands being armed to the back teeth, the geography and force dispotions overwhelming favours China in any armed conflict. With those islands fully militarised, China's dominance in the region would be near unassailable.

The west didn't know China have island build capabilities it did have, a strategic blunder, but at least an understandable one. However, pretty much every single tactical and strategic decision made since has been one mistake after the other.

By needlessly ratcheting up tensions with its FON patrols as a method to pressure and try to coerce Beijing, all Washington has managed to do is provide both the motivation and justification for China to fully arm those new islands.

Without US FON patrols, China deploying advanced arms on the islands would have raised a lot of eyebrows. However, under the backdrop of said FON patrols, those deployments seem far less unreasonable, and looks to be a reaction rather than premeditated choice.

Force and intimidation was categorically the wrong approach to take here.

I think the fundamental problem with western strategy in general is that too many of their key players treat it like a poker game, and it's military have a way too high opinion of itself.

This isn't a game of poker. Everyone can see everyone else's cards, and it's extremely rare when one side completely and fundamentally misreads the strengths and capabilities of the other.

Before getting involved in a game of escalation chicken, one should look ahead to the ultimate position - if neither side backs down and we both follow this to its ultimately conclusion, who would have the upper hand?

In the SCS, China can go toe to toe with anyone, including the US. It's pretty much the perfect place on earth for China to fight a war, and it's only to get better for China as its complete its island building and development.

The SCS is close enough to allow China to employ forces based on the mainland, yet far enough to make any enemy attack on the Chinese mainland a massive escalation.

The waters in the area, especially around the potential combat zones around islands and features, are overwhelming shallow and complicated. Giving huge advantages to China's vast coastal defense oriented fleets of 022 FACs, 056 light frigates and SSKs etc over USN assets designed for the deep open oceans.

Where the USN has the experience advantage in the open oceans, the PLAN holds the edge in the littorals.

For someone as senior as Admr Harris to be describing those islands as 'easy targets' seems like a disturbingly overconfident position to take.

They may be easy targets now, when they are completely undefended. But if push comes to shove, those islands could quite easily and very quickly be transformed into fortresses in every sense of the word.

That, added to the location, geography, force dispotions and public sentiment towards the area in question of the two sides, would easily make the SCS hands down the most dangerous and difficult place the USN could choose to pick a fight anywhere on the planet.

China recognises this, yet America seems blind to it. That is why the old dynamics and tactics simply will not work here.

Whereas elsewhere, America might get away with being able to bully China into backing down even though everyone knows they have a crappy hand and are just bluffing; in the SCS, China has enough advantages that it can afford to go all the way if that's as far as America wants to take it. So China isn't backing down on this one.

America needs to recognise that, and recognise that fast and adjust its strategy and tactics fast. Because the path they are on now has a distressingly high probability of leading to open conflict, made all the more alarming because America seems largely oblivious to that possibility, and is sleepwalking towards dangerous territory.

Absolutely excellent analysis.

I would also add that the SCS is a relatively enclosed body of water, which means surface ships and aircraft carriers don't have enough space to hide.

If you send a single patrol aircraft right down through the middle of the SCS, it should be able to detect almost every ship in the SCS.

 

[AndrewS]

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Tit for tat for sure next move the opfor. Depending on the response It won't be long until we see couple of type 56 and Yuan in the harbor


The Chinese military has deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system to one of its contested islands in the South China Sea according to civilian satellite imagery exclusively obtained by Fox News, more evidence that China is increasingly "militarizing" its islands in the South China Sea and ramping up tensions in the region.

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The imagery from ImageSat International (ISI) shows two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers as well as a radar system on Woody Island, part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea.

It is the same island chain where a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed close to another contested island a few weeks ago. China at the time vowed “consequences” for the action.

Woody Island is also claimed by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and by Vietnam.

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Diagram including a satellite image of the beach from Feb. 14. (ImageSat International)

The missiles arrived over the past week. According to the images, a beach on the island was empty on Feb. 3, but the missiles were visible by Feb. 14.

A U.S. official confirmed the accuracy of the photos. The official said the imagery viewed appears to show the HQ-9 air defense system, which closely resembles Russia’s S-300 missile system. The HQ-9 has a range of 125 miles, which would pose a threat to any airplanes, civilians or military, flying close by.

This comes as President Obama hosts 10 Asian leaders in Palm Springs, many of those leaders concerned over China’s recent activity in the South China Sea. "The United States will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," Obama said Tuesday.

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Images of the Woody Island beach on Feb. 14 (left) and Feb. 3. (ImageSat International)

The Pentagon was watching the developments closely, a defense official told Fox News. "The United States continues to call on all claimants to halt land reclamation, construction, and militarization of features in the South China Sea," the official said.

In the past two years, China has built over 3,000 acres of territory atop seven reefs in the area. There are a total of three runways built on three of the artificial islands.



 

I don't see the Chinese military permanently deploying Type-56 or Yuan or any other naval vessels in the Paracels.

The Paracel islands are only 200km from Hainan, where there are much better hardened bases and support facilities available.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

OK here is a what the heck news related to the missiles.
Although in Japanese;

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PRC Foreign Minister denies that his nation had stationed any missiles on SEA island stating it is a complete fabrication by western media.

Talk about not receiving the memo.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

OK here is a what the heck news related to the missiles.
Although in Japanese;

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PRC Foreign Minister denies that his nation had stationed any missiles on SEA island stating it is a complete fabrication by western media.

Talk about not receiving the memo.

That is not what the official response is. Any doubt about the permanency of the missile should be dispelled by now

China says defense facilities on islands had been in place for years

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February 17, 2016
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Defense Ministry said on Wednesday defense facilities on "relevant islands and reefs" had been in place for many years, when asked whether China had deployed a surface-to-air missile system on one of the disputed islands it controls in the South China Sea.

The Paracel Islands are China's territory, so China is within its rights to deploy defense facilities there, the ministry added in a statement to Reuters.

"China's air and naval defensive deployments on the relevant islands and reefs have existed for many years," the statement said, adding that reports by certain western media were nothing but "hype".

 

[Jura The idiot]

That is not what the official response is. Any doubt about the permanency of the missile should be dispelled by now

China says defense facilities on islands had been in place for years

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February 17, 2016
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Defense Ministry said on Wednesday defense facilities on "relevant islands and reefs" had been in place for many years, when asked whether China had deployed a surface-to-air missile system on one of the disputed islands it controls in the South China Sea.

The Paracel Islands are China's territory, so China is within its rights to deploy defense facilities there, the ministry added in a statement to Reuters.

"China's air and naval defensive deployments on the relevant islands and reefs have existed for many years," the statement said, adding that reports by certain western media were nothing but "hype".

I noticed analogous text in today's official Russian article

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which identifies the missiles as

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and says they've been on

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[joshuatree]

China itself suggested that others could be allowed to make use of the facilities the new islands provides.

However, that was before all the bad blood with the FON patrols, so whether China still feel so generous is very much up for debate.

I think even if China was to offer to open up their bases for use by others, who gets to be on the invite list would very much depend on their attitude and behaviour thus far.

Had Australia asked before mounting FON patrols themselves, China might have indeed indicated that they would be welcome to make use of the facilities. But I think the Australians are being very optimistic if they think China will still be willing to roll out the welcoming matt now that they have effectively taken sides against China.

Although there is still a chance that China will forgive them their transgressions, since it has done in a relatively low-key fashion, and limited in scope. Especially as doing so would neatly undermine a lot of the opposition to China's island building, and also potentially drive a wedge between the Australians and Americans.

The USN would firmly be on the "not welcome" list irrespective of what China agree with the Australians in my view.

I think the Australians asking is an olive branch of sort and a chance for China to turn the tide here.

1) Offer a joint anti-piracy patrol with Australia to be taking off from Woody Island. It has reclamation done and would be the least contentious which would make it easier for the Australians to accept. Host a crew BBQ, V-ball game, etc on the island before the patrol takes off.

2) Offer areas on some of the islands as hosts to meteorological centers to NGOs, storm shelters to fishermen, and staging areas for relief organizations.

3) Ask in return what other claimants are offering as access to their reclaimed features to reduce tensions in the SCS.

State all of the above does not prejudice anyone's claims.

 

[tidalwave]

I think the Australians asking is an olive branch of sort and a chance for China to turn the tide here.

1) Offer a joint anti-piracy patrol with Australia to be taking off from Woody Island. It has reclamation done and would be the least contentious which would make it easier for the Australians to accept. Host a crew BBQ, V-ball game, etc on the island before the patrol takes off.


State all of the above does not prejudice anyone's claims.

Woody island is too North West. More like Fiery Cross which at the center.

 

[tidalwave]

Once China receive S400, it will placed at Hainan. The 40N6 version will cover up to 250Miles.
That mean Hainan can cover paracel.

And if S400 placed at paracel, it can cover Spratley.

an relay effect.