As per optimistic estimates WS-15 will be ready 2025 at the earliest. Also, image he posted appears to be that of a J-20 with WS-10C. The nozzle’s petals are shorter than that of WS-15.
He is a wall climber so reasonably reliable.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
As per optimistic estimates WS-15 will be ready 2025 at the earliest. Also, image he posted appears to be that of a J-20 with WS-10C. The nozzle’s petals are shorter than that of WS-15.
He is a wall climber so reasonably reliable.
WS-15 has already entered in LRIP stage and its been a year.. so high chances that, WS-15 will be fully ready to enter in serial production by the end of this year..
Okay good to know the OP has some kind of track record.
But you're also saying the OP did not make any statement about what sort of powerplant the J-20A at this unit is using, and that it is your own estimate based on a combination of past rumours and looking at the photo?
If that's the case, fine, but also I hope you can understand that's a big difference versus suggesting the OP had outright stated it was using WS-10s themselves.
So, the most accurate "outcome" of this news is:
- We have indicators that a STC unit has had J-20As delivered
- The person posting this news and photo has not made any statements about its powerplant
- Our ability to try and think about what kind of powerplant these J-20As may possibly have is dependent upon our projected estimates of when WS-15 would be ready as well as partially trying to look at how the engines appear in that photo (assuming it is a photo of one of the delivered J-20As to begin with), but that right now "we don't know" is technically the most correct answer.
Nevermind...
A guy commented under his post saying that's the WS-10Cs, and he replied "it's still a J-20A."
I guess he's indirectly saying that it is indeed WS-10Cs that's on this particular 'batch' I suppose?
A guy commented under his post saying that's the WS-10Cs, and he replied "it's still a J-20A."
I guess he's indirectly saying that it is indeed WS-10Cs that's on this particular 'batch' I suppose?
As with most of these fellows, it's rare to get a clear answer.
Hypothetically, would the OP's answer make sense if it was powered by WS-10 or WS-15, in context of the deliberate joking-esque vagueness they like to do?
I'd say yes.
That said, independent of the photo and independent of the rumour (i.e. I'm not convinced either of those are of note), if we were to entertain the hypothesis of J-20A entering service in the first half of 2024 in general, naturally it wouldn't make sense to expect it to be powered by WS-15 so early on considering it only first flew on J-20A under a year ago.
J-20A's powerplant is probably not the most important uplift in capability for it tbh.
The PTMS of the aircraft is not necessarily tied with the engine outright, and that in turn has partial bearing to sensors, avionics, and then of course there are benefits to new materials and structures as well.
My concern is still, how credible is this news? I know nothing about the original poster and in mind we still got the additional prototypes 2053, 2055 & 2056 „confirmed“ let me question if there is indeed already a first production run ready for service?!
I agree.
Also Deino, I don't want to criticize you, but on Twitter you have credibility in regards to PLA watching matters -- posting direct rumours without first verifying things can end up diluting your authority and your credibility.
I know that your posts when they quote and acknowledge things as rumours is partly meant to try to crowdsource more information and opinions, but the problem is that by posting rumours so often without keeping your "credibility powder" dry, it can end up creating more confusion and damaging your own reputation.
IMO sometimes when there is new photos or news on SDF that is not yet verifiable or lacking in context, we should maybe wait a week or two before sharing it elsewhere like on Twitter or Reddit etc, because sometimes sharing information before it is well cooked and able to be framed in the right way can create more problems for us.
I think it is pretty simple. The PLA wants to continue or increase the current J-20 production rate and the WS-15 still isn't available in enough numbers to do that. So they continue producing aircraft with the WS-10C engine.
Even with the WS-10C engine the J-20 is a vast improvement over the J-11, or even worse, the J-8.
Even with the WS-10C engine the J-20 is a vast improvement over the J-11, or even worse, the J-8.
It's not quite that simple, because there is a difference between "WS-15 still isn't available in enough numbers" to continue J-20 production rates, versus WS-15 not being sufficiently mature to be fitted with in production aircraft delivered for service.
We also do not know whether current J-20 production rate will continue or increase as they transition from J-20 production to J-20A production -- the transition period includes more than just engine production rate, but may also include the time needed to retool the existing production line and ensure suppliers for other subsystems can scale up as well. All of that means we may see a year or two period where J-20A production (and overall J-20 production) declines a little bit compared to the last year or two, before picking up again.
What that means in relation to engine production availability in the near future is anyone's guess, but at this current point in time, if J-20A is in service, and if J-20A is using WS-10s, then I think the most likely reason would be it is not due to WS-15 production rates but rather WS-15 maturity/readiness for production.
After all, the first J-20A with two WS-15s only flew in June 2023, under a year ago. It is unlikely they would have it production ready for service in that time.
Just a little reminder that J-20s (regular or A) with WS-10Cs are not underpowered in terms of T/W, considering the J-20's lighter weight. WS-10B can already achieve ~144 kN and WS-10C is said to be even better.
WS-15 just takes it even further to completely fulfill the 5th Gen criterias, like a better flight envelope, superior supercruising capabilities, better thermal management and fuel consumption, reliability/TBO, an even better T/W, etc. Perhaps even better power generation for onboard electronics too.
So J-20As with WS-10Cs isn't bad in anyway. It can already achieve most, if not all 5th Gen criterias with it. WS-15 just do them better.
WS-15 just takes it even further to completely fulfill the 5th Gen criterias, like a better flight envelope, superior supercruising capabilities, better thermal management and fuel consumption, reliability/TBO, an even better T/W, etc. Perhaps even better power generation for onboard electronics too.
So J-20As with WS-10Cs isn't bad in anyway. It can already achieve most, if not all 5th Gen criterias with it. WS-15 just do them better.