Chinese Economics Thread

supercat

Major
Worried about Shein and Temu? Half of the sellers on Amazon is from China.

Good. More precious metals, and less US treasury.

China is buying gold like there’s no tomorrow​

At the same time, the country’s central bank has steadily added to its gold reserves, while whittling away at its holdings of US debt.
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Decreased price and increased volume of Chinese exports is due to the economy of scale, not currency depreciation.
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Business is booming during the Labor Day holiday.
 
Precisely. You may trace the issue with France too. In industrial era Europeans had population boon. Not France. Why? Was France entirely unsuccesful? No, it was a dominant power, just less than Napoleonic times. France had low birth rate since before revolution. Therefore it is not the economy. It is the cultural attitude.
The European nations with the must success in industrialization tended to be Protestant and had Germanic culture. The "Protestant work ethic," was once actually very real. Basically all of the most successful advanced economies were Germanic/Protestant or Northeast Asian/Confucian. Tangentially they also had the most competent armies.
 
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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
The European nations with the must success in industrialization tended to be Protestant and had Germanic culture. The "Protestant work ethic," was once actually very real.

Germany has the best geography for development out of the whole EU. I think that it was actually the bigger factor here for their success.

(Also in the MIDDLE of the turbo-colonialist continent that plundered the rest of the world for centuries earlier, even if they were not a big part of it themselves at large).

Imagine how they benefited from all that trade and capital flows. I think that "work ethic" is not as important as it is presented by everyone.



 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
The European nations with the must success in industrialization tended to be Protestant and had Germanic culture. The "Protestant work ethic," was once actually very real. Basically all of the most successful advanced economies were Germanic/Protestant or Northeast Asian/Confucian. Tangentially they also had the most competent armies.
Why were the catholic countries of France, Portugal and Spain so successful at colonization and sea born trade in 15-1600s?
Is there a catholic intelligence advantage that made them so ruthless, intelligent and successful in trade and colonialism?


This is the wrong way of thinking. Catholic/southern countries such as Spain, Portugual, France even italian city states were extremely rich for many centuries. Maybe they got complacent and lost their desire for hard work and wealth. Maybe they got used to the easy money from colonialism. So, when the industrial revolution started they were left behind by poor protestant nations who did not have such an easy wealth and had to work harder. Maybe this disparity in hunger for wealth caused them to be left behind and northern europeans to succeed and that advantage still remains.

China/East Asians have been very poor for a long time and probably have that hunger and work ethic to earn money. Maybe the west has lost that edge due to too much wealth and comfort. China maybe able to become richer than the west eventually due to this disparity in hungerness for wealth and prosperity.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is the wrong way of thinking. Catholic/southern countries such as Spain, Portugual, France even italian city states were extremely rich for many centuries. Maybe they got complacent and lost their desire for hard work and wealth. Maybe they got used to the easy money from colonialism. So, when the industrial revolution started they were left behind by poor protestant nations who did not have such an easy wealth and had to work harder. Maybe this disparity in hunger for wealth caused them to be left behind and northern europeans to succeed and that advantage still remains.
Try looking at a map of where the coal deposits in Europe are. Southern Europe has much less coal than Northern Europe.
This meant that once the Industrial Revolution got going those countries were left behind.

The reason those countries started the colonization process in the first place was because they had exhausted the possibilities for growth in their own region.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why were the catholic countries of France, Portugal and Spain so successful at colonization and sea born trade in 15-1600s?
Is there a catholic intelligence advantage that made them so ruthless, intelligent and successful in trade and colonialism?


This is the wrong way of thinking. Catholic/southern countries such as Spain, Portugual, France even italian city states were extremely rich for many centuries. Maybe they got complacent and lost their desire for hard work and wealth. Maybe they got used to the easy money from colonialism. So, when the industrial revolution started they were left behind by poor protestant nations who did not have such an easy wealth and had to work harder. Maybe this disparity in hunger for wealth caused them to be left behind and northern europeans to succeed and that advantage still remains.

China/East Asians have been very poor for a long time and probably have that hunger and work ethic to earn money. Maybe the west has lost that edge due to too much wealth and comfort. China maybe able to become richer than the west eventually due to this disparity in hungerness for wealth and prosperity.
as @gelgoog pointed out Southern Europe had far less coal. But another thing is that they also had much less oil so they also couldn't capitalize on the next wave of industrialization either, the way Russia and the US did. By the time the post-WW2 boom hit, they spent much of their resources on importing oil as colonial borders were frozen and then independence slowly granted to colonies.

Neither could Imperial Japan, btw, so its not about culture or motivation, but hard numbers. They got fucked after WW1 and were stuck at 1/10 US GDP per capita because they could not secure oil, since all the oil in East Asia was taken by colonial empires like Dutch (Indonesia), British (Malaysia), Russian (Sakhalin) and US (Philippines) empires or were too hard to extract with the technology of the time (Daqing in China).

It is not a coincidence that Imperial Japan got stuck at 1/10 US GDP per capita when they couldn't get oil but jumped to ~equal US GDP per capita once they were allowed access to oil, facilitated by US oil exports at first and then Middle Eastern oil exports. Without that post WW2 oil, they're absolutely screwed.

Energy does not alone determine whether you succeed or not, but it does set a hard upper limit on your development. You need energy to develop, either self produced or bought.

What enables China to grow was 3 fold:

1. having the world's largest coal reserves and enough domestic oil resources via Tarim Basin and Daqing to industrialize at a critical time of industrial development in the 1950's and 1960's.
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China_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2016.jpg


2. having a huge population and enough arable land to make full use of it.
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3.
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including
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and ships of countries like the UK. Funny, wonder how they got away with that?

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and the Taiwanese navy started avoiding PLAN ships.
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and due to Taiwanese threats it required diversion to Philippines and Japan.

China normalizing relations with some certain country finally forced them to give up the blockade because they cannot sustain it without diplomatic, logistical and ISR support.
 

TK3600

Captain
Registered Member
Germany has the best geography for development out of the whole EU. I think that it was actually the bigger factor here for their success.

(Also in the MIDDLE of the turbo-colonialist continent that plundered the rest of the world for centuries earlier, even if they were not a big part of it themselves at large).

Imagine how they benefited from all that trade and capital flows. I think that "work ethic" is not as important as it is presented by everyone.



That is annoying level of reductionism. So many country with ample resource failed, like China. Germany was very late to colonialism, so that cant be it either. Societal factor is mostly at play, as is today. Take it away, country is certain to fail to industrialize. Lacking resource a country can still manage. Even then I would still not reduce it to social only, just a bigger than geography.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
That is annoying level of reductionism. So many country with ample resource failed, like China. Germany was very late to colonialism, so that cant be it either. Societal factor is mostly at play, as is today. Take it away, country is certain to fail to industrialize. Lacking resource a country can still manage. Even then I would still not reduce it to social only, just a bigger than geography.

Success related to geography explanation is not only about raw materials/resources like coal and oil but also stuff like flat land (much cheaper to build anything in that terrain there like roads, railroads, needed for industrial trade, even factories themselves, and everything else in terms of infrastructure, and even the basic housing), inland navigable rivers (much cheaper and easier transporting stuff needed for industry to function and for final products shipments, and overall trade).

And Germany has the highest density of them in the entire world alongside Belgium and Netherlands. Then you have Germany's position at the center of Europe, so once again easier to trade with everyone and from countries all around the continent in all directions (also many wealthy empires with major colonial traditions all around them).

Then you have the Ruhr region, which has one of the best coal mines in the world. When you add anything together, you see how that "protestant work ethic" may maybe an overhyped myth. Germany's early industrialization and success in manufacturing are mostly dependent on geography. Japan and South Korea had it many times worse in terms of those natural gifts, that's why I respect their rise more for example.
 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Spain has some coal, but it was much harder to mine than in say the UK or Germany. Portugal and Southern Italy have basically no coal to speak of. And if you look at it, of those three areas it is Spain that is most industrialized. That is no coincidence.
Then there is the climate. Southern Italy used to be quite green and basically the breadbasket of Italy. Today it is kind of arid. As is Southern Iberia. Iberia also has another issue, which is that the terrain is kind of mountainous.

Germany lost access to Russian piped natural gas, and now they have to buy LNG at the same prices as in Iberia. And suddenly the "German economic miracle" is over. And Spain has some of the highest economy growth rates in the EU. Funny about that.

Japan had huge coal deposits. Their main issue during the initial phase of industrialization was producing steel using the iron mineral deposits available in Japan. Initially they used iron sands but those were kind of difficult to process.
 
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TK3600

Captain
Registered Member
Success related to geography explanation is not only about raw materials/resources like coal and oil but also stuff like flat land (much cheaper to build anything in that terrain there like roads, railroads, needed for industrial trade, even factories themselves, and everything else in terms of infrastructure, and even the basic housing), inland navigable rivers (much cheaper and easier transporting stuff needed for industry to function and for final products shipments, and overall trade).

And Germany has the highest density of them in the entire world alongside Belgium and Netherlands. Then you have Germany's position at the center of Europe, so once again easier to trade with everyone and from countries all around the continent in all directions (also many wealthy empires with major colonial traditions all around them).

Then you have the Ruhr region, which has one of the best coal mines in the world. When you add anything together, you see how that "protestant work ethic" may maybe an overhyped myth. Germany's early industrialization and success in manufacturing are mostly dependent on geography. Japan and South Korea had it many times worse in terms of those natural gifts, that's why I respect their rise more for example.
Idk how much work ethic is attributable to protestants, but there are plenty cases to show social factor trumps resource and 'flat land'.

3 country have finest geography for industrialization. Russia, US, China.

Russia lagged behind in Imperial era. It has plenty flat land, richest resource, finest rivers. The moment Soviet Union changed society, it rapidly became superpower.

China is self explanatory. Absolutely backward in Qing era. Huge land mass, population, extremely coal rich, mineral rich, yellow river and yangtze. PRC had to shape society to make use of it. Today it is industrial hyper power.

USA is absolutely blessed in resources, be it mineral, oil, river, flat land.... At its peak it was 50% world industrial output much like China today. Today... So deindustrialized it cant build a rail. Geography certainly did not change. People did.

You absolutely need social factors. With it you can manage to small degree, limited by resource access. Without it no amount of geography helps. Geography only determine upper bound. Social factor determine whether it is even possible.
 
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