Chinese Economics Thread

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zbb

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sunnymaxi said:
China's
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consumption, a key barometer of economic activity, exceeded 2.33 trillion kWh in the first quarter of 2024, up 9.8% YoY, the National Energy Administration said Wednesday.

In March alone, the country's power use expanded 7.4% YoY to 794.2 billion kWh.
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such a massive growth in electricity consumptions in years.. China could touch magical 10 trillion kwh electricity output in 2024 year.. mind boggling
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Q1 electricity consumption growth of 9.8% is much higher than the Q1 GDP growth of 5.3% while Q1 crude imports were basically flat YoY and actually down in March even though there was also rapid growth in the chemicals sector (a major consumer of crude).

These are pretty clear signs that Chinese economic growth is now powered by growth in domestically generated electricity, much of which are from renewables.

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Total crude imports for the first quarter stood at 137.4 million tons, a 0.7% increase from last year's first quarter figure of 136.3 million tons.
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azn_cyniq

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The Q1 GDP data was good, but the growth in retail sales in March is a bit concerning. Retail sales grew by 3.1% in March 2024. In the last three years, retail sales grew by -3.5% (March 2022), 10.6% (March 2023), and 3.1% (March 2024). For the past three years, retail sales in China in March have grown at an average rate of 3.4%. Source:
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This is related to the continuously falling house prices in China, which benefits young, first-time homebuyers but causes homeowners to be more cautious about their spending. Source:
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If the real estate industry recovers, or if it is replaced by another avenue of wealth creation such as the stock market, then China's GDP growth rate should be able to exceed 5% by a significant margin. This is far easier said than done, of course. This decade will be interesting...
 
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Serb

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The US politicians are illiterate clowns, they are playing with fire and playing "stupid games" with those tariffs and "trade wars" as they are much more affected by Chinese imports than vice versa in nearly all industries.

And in general, China is one of the least globally externally vulnerable countries in their supply chains, in the world whereas the US is one of the most vulnerable, in the West and globally, if not the most vulnerable one.


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The US is identified as the country most exposed to global supply chain disruptions, while China and Germany rank as the most secure.
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The map below shows how the US was the most vulnerable in the global supply chain, with a score of 38.35. At the other end of the spectrum is Europe’s largest economy, Germany, with a full score of 100, and Asia’s largest economy, China, with a score of 98.65.
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Michaelsinodef

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Serb said:
The US politicians are illiterate clowns, they are playing with fire and playing "stupid games" with those tariffs and "trade wars" as they are much more affected by Chinese imports than vice versa in nearly all industries.

And in general, China is one of the least globally externally vulnerable countries in their supply chains, in the world whereas the US is one of the most vulnerable, in the West and globally, if not the most vulnerable one.


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View attachment 128273
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Lmao at the Germany having a score of 100.

That really isn't the case from what I have glimpsed.
 
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Randomuser

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sndef888 said:
Something interesting to read: Glenn Luk argues that not only is China's GDP growth not going to slow down, it's going to increase as the transition from property to advanced industry continues

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He's not the only one who said that. Hong Hao who's a research analyst that gets quoted a lot said the faster people get used to the fact that real estate isn't the only big thing in China the better. Then the economy can move to more advanced industries instead.

As years past people will forget about covid the disease itself. Instead people will remember the impact it had on stuff like work from home, doing everything digitally, people realizing real estate is a huge scam, technology taking over peoples lives etc. That stuff is what covid really changed.
 
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