China demographics thread.

sanctionsevader

New Member
Registered Member
To be fair it's not like they are nicer to Chinese on the Indian defense forum or any other website where a lot of them hang out. We are allowed to punch back especially when a lot of times they are the ones who start it.

While it is a waste of time since we have bigger fights to take care of, we can't pretend they don't exist.
I don't really care about where jai hind battalion is hanging out tbh, it's not a war against india man it's just annoying posts derailing threads.
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't really care about where jai hind battalion is hanging out tbh, it's not a war against india man it's just annoying posts derailing threads.
Non-Indians don't have a tendency of thinking about India on their off-time. Instead, it's Indians and crypto-Indians (Indians pretending not to be Indians, but revealing themselves from their unique English and constant citing of Indian news agencies) constantly intruding into the conversation and talking about how great India is and how much better India is than China.

That would be tolerable if it had any basis in truth, but they constantly link to random blogs as "sources", misread statistics, and are just obtuse in general. They derail threads because people find it hard to tolerate such mind-numbing levels of self-aggrandizing stupidity.

No one wants these sorts of people, not even other Indians, yet they plague the internet, including here, all the same.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
It doesn't matter how ahead you are now. Countries catch up, at times quickly, at times not so quickly. But they do, because economies hit diminishing returns once they reach the technological frontier. If they didn't, Europeans would've left everyone in the dust by now and be on their way to galactic hegemony.

I think it useful to explain somewhat deeper on the new technology frontier.

For example in the field of transportation.

Today, cars use internal combustion engines powered by oil.

Internal combustion engine technology has matured and reached a plateau. We sees automakers invest billions and get a 2% improvement.
All the easy oil deposits have been tapped out, so the price of oil trends upwards every year now.

---

However, in the next industrial revolution, it is car batteries powered by electricity.

Today, the benchmark price of electricity is set by coal in both China and the USA, and indeed, in much of the world.
And today, unsubsidised wind and solar is typically 3x cheaper than coal. Note that coal produced electricity is a mature technology.
So in the future, it'll probably be solar that sets the electricity benchmark price.

In terms of cars using electric motors and batteries, I expect the 15 year operating cost will drop to at least half of a petrol car.

When you combine these two elements together, you get 6x improvement in car efficiency.

---

So you see how the technology frontier is shifting, and that the first country to adopt these technologies will have a productivity and therefore wage advantage. And we haven't even discussed what will happen if China is the first country to see electricity benchmark prices drop 3x.

NB. This is a very simplified example, as there are a whole bunch of assumptions and caveats that I haven't outlined, but you get the idea.
 

Randomuser

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think it useful to explain somewhat deeper on the new technology frontier.

For example in the field of transportation.

Today, cars use internal combustion engines powered by oil.

Internal combustion engine technology has matured and reached a plateau. We sees automakers invest billions and get a 2% improvement.
All the easy oil deposits have been tapped out, so the price of oil trends upwards every year now.

---

However, in the next industrial revolution, it is car batteries powered by electricity.

Today, the benchmark price of electricity is set by coal in both China and the USA, and indeed, in much of the world.
And today, unsubsidised wind and solar is typically 3x cheaper than coal. Note that coal produced electricity is a mature technology.
So in the future, it'll probably be solar that sets the electricity benchmark price.

In terms of cars using electric motors and batteries, I expect the 15 year operating cost will drop to at least half of a petrol car.

When you combine these two elements together, you get 6x improvement in car efficiency.

---

So you see how the technology frontier is shifting, and that the first country to adopt these technologies will have a productivity and therefore wage advantage. And we haven't even discussed what will happen if China is the first country to see electricity benchmark prices drop 3x.

NB. This is a very simplified example, as there are a whole bunch of assumptions and caveats that I haven't outlined, but you get the idea.
So basically China will be cheaper than the countries that are supposed to take its share from even lower cost of labour?
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
So basically China will be cheaper than the countries that are supposed to take its share from even lower cost of labour?
Yes.

For the more advanced and complex products.

Likely not gonna be the case for a lot of lower skilled and labor intensive products (where human cost can be cheaper than robots).

Although, China can likely still keep some of that manufacturing (far from being able to cover domestic demand, but a bit for strategic reasons).
 

Randomuser

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes.

For the more advanced and complex products.

Likely not gonna be the case for a lot of lower skilled and labor intensive products (where human cost can be cheaper than robots).

Although, China can likely still keep some of that manufacturing (far from being able to cover domestic demand, but a bit for strategic reasons).
Even low-tech stuff these days such as fabrics have much more complex processes and supply chains because simply the world has changed and people want even that stuff quickly and efficiently. And due to economies of scale, those robots which may be initially more expensive than manual labour will be worth more per dollar as the scale increases. Not to mention they will get cheaper as it becomes easier to building them.

I think all the people hoping they can just they can emulate the name low-cost manual labour method to build themselves up in today's age are setting themselves up for a disappointment. Its 2024 now where it is easier to get a phone and internet in a lot of places over proper basic needs that cavemen had. Maybe manual labour will be needed provided we blow each other up in ww3 and wipe out all the existing infrastructure. But according to what Fallout says, even in post-apocalyptic wastelands, some guys will be able to preserve all the technology for it.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Year of the Dragon Is a Boon for China's Fertility Rate

(Yicai) Feb. 23 -- The Year of the Dragon has ushered in a new wave of childbirth in China as people tend to prefer the Chinese zodiac sign linked to courage and tenacity.

The trend is apparent in hospitals around the country. Jiangsu province's Wuxi Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital announced recently that during the latest Chinese New Year holiday from Feb. 10 to Feb. 17, almost 220 babies were born, up by a fifth from a year ago. Western China's Second Affiliated Hospital of Shaanxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine unveiled that during the same period, the number of newborns surged by 72 percent to exceed 230.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes.

For the more advanced and complex products.

Likely not gonna be the case for a lot of lower skilled and labor intensive products (where human cost can be cheaper than robots).

Although, China can likely still keep some of that manufacturing (far from being able to cover domestic demand, but a bit for strategic reasons).

Bear in mind that we are literally seeing exponential improvements in robot costs and capability in the next few years.

At a minimum, my guess is that any sort of volume manufacturing (whether high or low-skilled) will be replaced by machines. When you have any sort of repetitive work, it should be straightforward to train an AI/robot and furthermore, the high volumes make it worthwhile.

Plus China will likely retain some low-skilled or low-value manufacturing because transport and distribution costs make it worthwhile to produce inside China.
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Honestly the obsession and race-hatred for India/Indians on this site is extremely tiresome. Does every non-hardware thread have to have dozens of posts about how indians are untermensch and chinese are ubermensch?

Anyway, too late. Already a documented phenomena of subcontinental women marrying dudes in China that can't find wives mostly for the bride-price (since dowry culture in the norm in India and I think also Pakistan).
Pakistan is not India. They are and will continue to be welcome in China. My point is that Chinese-Indian people in China will suffer as relations between China and India worsen, which they undoubtedly will. It has nothing to do with "race"
 
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