Shenyang next gen combat aircraft thread

[MC530]

If you think like this, you won't ever understand military procurement. Militaries cannot and shouldn't cost optimize to those levels. They aren't private companies. The J-35 provides China with means to rapidly close up the VLO jet disparity with the USA. What would be the cost of waiting 5 more years? Furthermore, existence of a newer platform doesn't make older things nonperforming. That is a weird way to think. You could only argue that something became nonperforming once most of the adversary assets start to overperform it. And even in such cases platforms usually find other niches they do adequately. The J-15T for example. It is not a stop gap solution at all. It will be better for stand-off strikes, buddy tanking, and CMD than the J-35 or a notional J-50T.

Cost? That's a good question. We're discussing how 25% of the US military budget is used to counter the US and other NATO countries. The military doesn't focus on cost, but it does assess cost-effectiveness.
Your understanding is that China needs to immediately produce new fighter jets to counter the arrival of US forces. This is ridiculous. There was a 13-year gap between the F-31's announcement and the J-35's entry into service. To this day, the Chinese Air Force is still using and gradually replacing the J-7, and has even phased out production of its successor, the J-10. Clearly, the Chinese military prefers a stable and reliable transition to new equipment rather than hastily introducing a large number of new fighter jets.

Performance degradation? I think my choice of words might have triggered your suspicions.

If the J35 enters service, it would be a crime for China to continue producing the J10, even if the J10 shot down a Rafale. However, if the J10 production rate is only 50, then all costs associated with the fighter will be sunk: logistics, production facilities, research funding, and so on.

The J35 has just entered service, Shenyang has expanded its production base, and within five years, the Chinese military has introduced the latest JXX? How many J35s should be produced annually to recoup the losses? In peacetime, no one in the military knew they would receive the latest fighter within five years, and yet they were forced to produce a lower-tier fighter. What a foolish thing to do.

The J15's multi-role capabilities, as you mentioned, do allow the development of two electronic combat aircraft and a two-seat fighter, all equipped with AESA radars, today. However, this remains a stopgap measure. The J35's inability to fully satisfy the Chinese Navy and its continued delay in development have given rise to the J15T. If Shenyang had not modeled the J35 after the F-35, but instead developed a carrier-based fighter based on a larger fighter competing with the J20, there would likely be no J15T today.

It was only until the J35 was nearing completion that the Chinese Navy was forced to accept a medium-sized fighter. Only then did the J15 find sufficient operational scenarios.

 

[Tomboy]

It was only until the J35 was nearing completion that the Chinese Navy was forced to accept a medium-sized fighter. Only then did the J15 find sufficient operational scenarios.

This is just flawed logic, J-35 exists because the navy ordered it not the other way around. Also what delay are you talking about? J-35 program has not had any known delays, why are you thinking that FC-31 and the J-35 are even the same program? J-35 only made it's maiden flight a mere 4 years ago and it's already in service, this is extremely fast.

If the J35 enters service, it would be a crime for China to continue producing the J10, even if the J10 shot down a Rafale. However, if the J10 production rate is only 50, then all costs associated with the fighter will be sunk: logistics, production facilities, research funding, and so on.

The J35 has just entered service, Shenyang has expanded its production base, and within five years, the Chinese military has introduced the latest JXX? How many J35s should be produced annually to recoup the losses? In peacetime, no one in the military knew they would receive the latest fighter within five years, and yet they were forced to produce a lower-tier fighter. What a foolish thing to do.

I'm not even sure what you are trying to say here. Are you suggesting that J-XDS should not be procured just because they want to "recoup the loses"? Production to J-XDS should switch gently from J-35, should J-XDS reach LRIP in early 2030, it would still take a while to ramp up to full production. That leaves J-35 atleast 5-7 years of production, enough for hundreds of airframes.

 

[36011]

This is just flawed logic, J-35 exists because the navy ordered it not the other way around. Also what delay are you talking about? J-35 program has not had any known delays, why are you thinking that FC-31 and the J-35 are even the same program? J-35 only made it's maiden flight a mere 4 years ago and it's already in service, this is extremely fast.

I'm not even sure what you are trying to say here. Are you suggesting that J-XDS should not be procured just because they want to "recoup the loses"? Production to J-XDS should switch gently from J-35, should J-XDS reach LRIP in early 2030, it would still take a while to ramp up to full production. That leaves J-35 atleast 5-7 years of production, enough for hundreds of airframes.

Everything he says is a figment of his imagination. To be blunt, he just wants to criticize SAC, it doesn't matter what the reason is. Even if everyone thought the J35 was a great carrier aircraft, he would still think it was just something the Chinese navy was forced to accept

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Cost? That's a good question. We're discussing how 25% of the US military budget is used to counter the US and other NATO countries. The military doesn't focus on cost, but it does assess cost-effectiveness.
Your understanding is that China needs to immediately produce new fighter jets to counter the arrival of US forces. This is ridiculous. There was a 13-year gap between the F-31's announcement and the J-35's entry into service. To this day, the Chinese Air Force is still using and gradually replacing the J-7, and has even phased out production of its successor, the J-10. Clearly, the Chinese military prefers a stable and reliable transition to new equipment rather than hastily introducing a large number of new fighter jets.

Performance degradation? I think my choice of words might have triggered your suspicions.

If the J35 enters service, it would be a crime for China to continue producing the J10, even if the J10 shot down a Rafale. However, if the J10 production rate is only 50, then all costs associated with the fighter will be sunk: logistics, production facilities, research funding, and so on.

The J35 has just entered service, Shenyang has expanded its production base, and within five years, the Chinese military has introduced the latest JXX? How many J35s should be produced annually to recoup the losses? In peacetime, no one in the military knew they would receive the latest fighter within five years, and yet they were forced to produce a lower-tier fighter. What a foolish thing to do.

The J15's multi-role capabilities, as you mentioned, do allow the development of two electronic combat aircraft and a two-seat fighter, all equipped with AESA radars, today. However, this remains a stopgap measure. The J35's inability to fully satisfy the Chinese Navy and its continued delay in development have given rise to the J15T. If Shenyang had not modeled the J35 after the F-35, but instead developed a carrier-based fighter based on a larger fighter competing with the J20, there would likely be no J15T today.

It was only until the J35 was nearing completion that the Chinese Navy was forced to accept a medium-sized fighter. Only then did the J15 find sufficient operational scenarios.

If you truly believe that Shenyang AC is capable of jacking up the annual production capacity of the J-XDS to reach triple digits within 3-4 years from the very beginning of the J-XDS' production run, then I have the Golden Gate Bridge to sell you.

As for the J-15T/DT - It's a rather wild and shaky claim that the J-35 has "failed to satisfy the PLAN" such that the PLAN had to resort to develop the J-15T. Both - And I mean BOTH - The J-35 and J-15T are useful to the PLAN in their respective roles and missions (which I suppose you should've known better).

You don't see the USN replacing the entirety of their F/A-18E/Fs (and E/A-18s) with F-35Cs, do you? And has the USN ever claimed that their F-35Cs are abject failures such that they had to keep the F/A-18 family production run going until 2027, all when the F-35C already started LRIP back in the late-2000s and serial production back in the mid-2010s?

Last-but-not-least - The J-XDH is THE primary successor to the J-15 family, and less so for the J-35. This is similar to the F/A-XX which is meant as the successor to the F/A-18 family, not the F-35C.

 

[mack8]

Said to be from the 14th test flight of J-50.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1953861303845761465

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

Is it just me or is Shenyang's J-XX seen undergoing test flights a lot more than Chengdu's J-36, lately?

 

[sunnymaxi]

Is it just me or is the Shenyang J-XX seen undergoing test flights a lot more than Chengdu's J-36, lately?

that's correct..

 

[BoraTas]

Cost? That's a good question. We're discussing how 25% of the US military budget is used to counter the US and other NATO countries. The military doesn't focus on cost, but it does assess cost-effectiveness.
Your understanding is that China needs to immediately produce new fighter jets to counter the arrival of US forces. This is ridiculous. There was a 13-year gap between the F-31's announcement and the J-35's entry into service. To this day, the Chinese Air Force is still using and gradually replacing the J-7, and has even phased out production of its successor, the J-10. Clearly, the Chinese military prefers a stable and reliable transition to new equipment rather than hastily introducing a large number of new fighter jets.

Those are your imaginations. In real life the J-10C was developed together with the J-20. They entered service almost simultaneously. Almost 300 of the former were procured in a short time period, altering the regional balance of power in a very significant way. Still, older J-10s are being modernized too despite the existence of flying 6th gen prototypes. PLAAF apparently doesn't think the existence of newer platforms make the older ones useless.

Performance degradation? I think my choice of words might have triggered your suspicions.

If the J35 enters service, it would be a crime for China to continue producing the J10, even if the J10 shot down a Rafale. However, if the J10 production rate is only 50, then all costs associated with the fighter will be sunk: logistics, production facilities, research funding, and so on.

The J35 has just entered service, Shenyang has expanded its production base, and within five years, the Chinese military has introduced the latest JXX? How many J35s should be produced annually to recoup the losses? In peacetime, no one in the military knew they would receive the latest fighter within five years, and yet they were forced to produce a lower-tier fighter. What a foolish thing to do.

There are no losses. The J-35 is competitive against literally everything China could face. Even in 20 years it will be competitive against the majority of adversary inventories. Since there are no service ready sixth gens all the comparisons of the J-35 to a sixth gen naval fighter are just entertainment.

The J15's multi-role capabilities, as you mentioned, do allow the development of two electronic combat aircraft and a two-seat fighter, all equipped with AESA radars, today. However, this remains a stopgap measure. The J35's inability to fully satisfy the Chinese Navy and its continued delay in development have given rise to the J15T. If Shenyang had not modeled the J35 after the F-35, but instead developed a carrier-based fighter based on a larger fighter competing with the J20, there would likely be no J15T today.

It was only until the J35 was nearing completion that the Chinese Navy was forced to accept a medium-sized fighter. Only then did the J15 find sufficient operational scenarios.

This quoted section is where your off thinking patterns are most apparent. The J-15 is a stop gap measure because you say so. The J-35 was forced and faced delays because you say so. All of these points are supported by the assumption that China will be outputting some newer aircraft "soon". These matters simply don't work like this and you are just exposing your lack of knowledge by insisting in these.

 

[MC530]

This is just flawed logic, J-35 exists because the navy ordered it not the other way around. Also what delay are you talking about? J-35 program has not

Of course, it's the Navy's order, but if there's still no low-observable fighter on deck before 2030 and the J-15 is still the primary aircraft carrier, what other options does the Navy have besides accepting a J-35 and J-15 combination?

Delay? Comparing the speed at which the J-20 and J-35 entered service, is there any other reason besides the Navy's lack of urgency? Are there no connections between the F-31 and the J-35? The first time I saw the F-31, someone on the forum was already saying, "Navy, navy, navy!"

On the contrary, because the JXX is unlikely to be fully deployed before 2030, this is the scenario for the J35 to enter service.
If the JXX is in service before 2030, there's no reason to rapidly expand J35 production now. Someone here is even willing to sell you the Golden Gate Bridge. If the JXX can't be mass-produced in 3-4 years, then how can the J35 be?

Last-but-not-least - The J-XDH is THE primary successor to the J-15 family, and less so for the J-35. This is similar to the F/A-XX which is meant as the successor to the F/A-18 family, not the F-35C.

Yes, because the JXX is unlikely to reach mass production before 2035, the combined presence and expansion of the J35 and J15 are essential.
This is based on naval mission scenarios, and while I'm not implicating the J35 or J15, I'm looking at the optimal option: Is a multi-role fighter jet inevitably going to be low-observable? Should carrier-based fighter jets be multi-role, rather than specialized?

If the answer is "yes," then a medium-to-large, low-observable, multi-role fighter is required. This would likely be delayed until around 2035.
The F35C stands for Joint Strike Fighter C. What was it originally intended to replace? The Mach 2 F-14 interceptor?

The US Navy's current aircraft carriers are mostly equipped with the F/A-18 Super Hornet.

Of course, we understand that neither aircraft alone might be effective.

But this is the US Navy's aspiration: a unified, multi-role fighter.

assumption that China will be outputting some newer aircraft "soon". These matters simply don't work like this and you are just exposing your lack of knowledge by insisting in these.

I think this is you fantasy. The J10 freeze has nothing to do with the J20. That's not my point.
If you think Shenyang still targets the J11D after the J20's release, that's your problem. A large number of J11s remain in service. They've switched to the two-seat, multi-role, high-payload J16.
As for upgrading the J10, we can bet the J10A will simply be retired over time, and there were no plans to install an AESA radar on the J10B. Furthermore, upgrading and designing a new aircraft are two completely different things.
The J-10 can still shoot down Rafale fighters. But does anyone expect it to go into mass production? You'd prefer the J-35.

The J-35 is China's best carrier-based fighter currently in service and is about to enter mass production. But if you assume Shenyang will have the J-XX on deck before 2030, when J-35 production is at its peak?

This has nothing to do with backwardness; it's about military spending being squandered.

Finally, I'll say this: You seem to have completely misunderstood my point: The JXX is unlikely to be fielded before 2030, which is why the J35 and J15 are now appearing in large numbers. The Chinese military wouldn't do these things without a plan.

That's exactly my point.

 

[tphuang]

Is it just me or is Shenyang's J-XX seen undergoing test flights a lot more than Chengdu's J-36, lately?

yes and it makes sense since J-36 is a more complicated design.

J-36 is expected to carry out a lot more complicated C2 & EW tasks, which may require more testing on tertiary platforms or the ground. But more likely,, just the very complicated layout requires all the test results from March to be applied into their models and make certain tweaks.

I think that's likely what's going on. We also saw some decent longer period of test flight gaps in J-20 program.

J-XDS is also a complicated design, but not to the same level.