Russia Forcing India out of Taijikistan?

well Russia seems to be playing hard ball with India
Confronted by a waffling buyer, most vendors don't immediately think of hostile acts a preferred sales tactic to close the deal. Putin's Russia, on the other hand, seems to be taking exactly that approach as India remains locked in price negotiations over the former Admiral Gorshkov carrier and SU-30MKI fighters, and considers non-Russian aircraft in its MMRCA medium fighter competition.

Plans called for rotating Indo-Russian joint operation of the Ayni air base, located just 15km from Tajikstan's capital. Its location above Afghanistan and Pakistan, and next to Uzbekistan et. al., makes it an important forward base for India to project special forces into the region, and send aid to Afghanistan over land routes. In July 2007, however…
AIR_MiG-29_India_Underside.jpg
IAF MiG-29B
(click to view full)

Sify reports that under pressure from a 'displeased' regime in Moscow, Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrahon Zaripov declared that the government was no longer negotiating with New Delhi about Ayni, and that India did not have usage rights at the base.

Russia maintains a motorized division in Tajikistan for "logistical support," and has a close relationship built on large foreign debts and security assistance. Russia's share of India's defense market has dwindled significantly since its golden days as India's sole major foreign supplier, however; and India is working hard to diversify its alliances and establish strong relations with other countries, including the USA. This has reportedly been a point of friction involving Ayni. Senior Indian delegations continue to shuttle to Moscow for meetings, and Putin is scheduled to visit India by year end.

Geopolitical hardball has been known to work in this industry, and perhaps it will work again. Then again, it has also been known to fail, and to accelerate the very trends one was hoping to reverse.


well this is interesting i wonder how it will develop

Yes, Russia has been very strange in its dealings with India over the last year or so, and continued delays in the delivery of or quality problems with equipment have escalted into something that seems a little more than just complaints on the one hand and demands for more funding on the other. It's one thing for shipyards and armaments manufacturers to run into difficulties; it happens. Even coming out and saying that more money is needed as cost overruns do happen when projects run into technical difficulties.

But resorting to "Blow Hot, Blow Cold" diplomacy a la Cold War times isn't helpful, even if it's not intended to cause serious problems. India may have lots of problems in its armaments industries in particular and its military procurement process in general, but it won't necessarily remain in its traditional client/dealer relationship with Russia if it feels too much pressure from the Russians on the one hand, and the right incentives from another source as sources for procurement (ie Europe, Israel, the US, etc.). I have some doubts that Russian diplomacy will be able to ensure continued Indian reliance upon Russia for much of its armaments in the long-term, even if the present diplomatic efforts are successful in the short term.

I suspect the Indians may be surprised and sufficiently put-off by Russia statements and the like on top of equipment problems and delays and demands for more money that they may well turn to other sources in the not-so-distant future. I think the present conduct of Russian diplomacy may well backfire in the long-term. This kind of reminds me of Egypt in 1973.