Rumoured Projects & Likelihood Thereof

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
Time to update this list with recent developments and rumours.

H-20 - 5
J15B - 5
J-XX - 5
10-ton class attack helicopter - 5
Coaxial/pusher helicopter - 4
Y-20 based AWACS - 4
Loyal Wingman UCAV - 4
AHL Helo - 4
JH-XX - 3
Tilt rotor aircraft - 3
Stealth helo - 3
C-5 size transport - 2
Twin W20 tactical transport - 2
Y-30 - 2
VTOL fighter - 2
Y-8/9 Gunship - 1
An-225 equivalent - 1
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
A lot of talk on other threads about eg J10D, J31 etc got me thinking about the many rumoured projects we've heard about but not seen flying. I thought I'd do a thread on these various projects and give my estimation for the likelihood/status of each project using this rating scale:

5 - almost certainly exists/blurry images of prototypes seen/strongly hinted at by AVIC/PLA
4 - probably exists, strong persistent rumours, mentioned in CMPR
3 - Maybe exists, some models that may bear some resemblance to something, some rumours from sometime credible sources
2 - probably doesn't exist, old rumours/models, no news for some years
1 - About as credible as Minnie Chan and Idiot Sandwich

So, on to the projects:

H-20 - 5
J15D - 5
J-XX - 4
Loyal Wingman UCAV - 4
JH-XX - 4
AHL Helo - 4
C-5 size transport - 3
Twin W20 tactical transport - 3
Y-30 - 2
J10D with WS15 - 1

Anything I missed?
Time to update this list:

H-20 - 5 - maybe down to 4
J15D - 5 - confirmed!
J-XX - 4 - confirmed x 2!
Loyal Wingman UCAV - 4
JH-XX - 4 - gonna put this as 3 now.
AHL Helo - 4
C-5 size transport - 3
Twin W20 tactical transport - 3 down to 1
Y-30 - 2 - up to 3
J10D with WS15 - 1

From Bora Tas' list:

Tilt rotor aircraft - 4 - we've seen a civilian tiltrotor UAV but no military version as yet
10-ton class attack helicopter - 4 - confirmed!
Stealth helo - 4
Y-20 based AWACS - 3 - confirmed!
Y-8/9 Gunship - 2 - down to 1
An-225 equivalent - 1
VTOL fighter - 1 - up to 4
Light stealth fighter - 1

Any more for any more?
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Time to update this list:

H-20 - 5 - maybe down to 4
J15D - 5 - confirmed!
J-XX - 4 - confirmed x 2!
Loyal Wingman UCAV - 4
JH-XX - 4 - gonna put this as 3 now.
AHL Helo - 4
C-5 size transport - 3
Twin W20 tactical transport - 3 down to 1
Y-30 - 2 - up to 3
J10D with WS15 - 1

From Bora Tas' list:

Tilt rotor aircraft - 4 - we've seen a civilian tiltrotor UAV but no military version as yet
10-ton class attack helicopter - 4 - confirmed!
Stealth helo - 4
Y-20 based AWACS - 3 - confirmed!
Y-8/9 Gunship - 2 - down to 1
An-225 equivalent - 1
VTOL fighter - 1 - up to 4
Light stealth fighter - 1

Any more for any more?

I think the stealth helo can be downgraded to 3. And the JH-XX can be downgraded to 2.

As for the H-20 - Both the deputy head of the PLAAF last year and the Guancha Trios this year confirmed the existence. So I'd think that it should remain at 5.
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
So new list excluding all the confirmed projects and some extremely unlikely ones:

H-20 - 5
PLANMC VTOL fighter - 4
Loyal Wingman - 5
Navalized J-XDS - 4
C-5/An-124 class transport - 3
Stealth Helicopter - 3
An-225 class transport - 1
AVIC AHL - 4
Y-30 - 4
JH-XX - 2 (Might still have a chance, since the mystery plane over Shenyang still haven't been identified)
Hypersonic air breathing recon drone - 2
Tiltrotor transport - 4
RQ-180 equivalent - 2
PL-16 - 4
PL-17B/Next gen ULRAAM - 3
PL-21 - 2
Exclusive to stealth aircraft long range AAM - 3
C919 based special mission aircraft - 2
Ultra heavy AEWC - 1
Air breathing hypersonic cruise missile - 2
Carrier based transport aircraft - 4


Feel free to add new potential projects
 
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Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
H-20 - 5
PLANMC VTOL fighter - 4
Loyal Wingman - 5
Navalized J-XDS - 4
C-5/An-124 class transport - 3
Stealth Helicopter - 3
An-225 class transport - 1
AVIC AHL - 4
Y-30 - 4
JH-XX - 2 (Might still have a chance, since the mystery plane over Shenyang still haven't been identified)
Hypersonic air breathing recon drone - 2
Tiltrotor transport - 4
RQ-180 equivalent plus - 2 Confirmed!
PL-16 - 4
PL-17B/Next gen ULRAAM - 3
PL-21 - 2
Exclusive to stealth aircraft long range AAM - 3
C919 based special mission aircraft - 2
Ultra heavy AEWC - 1
Air breathing hypersonic cruise missile - 2
Carrier based transport aircraft - 4

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Took a grand total of a weekend's time to confirm this project
 
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