Rumoured Projects & Likelihood Thereof

Maikeru

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
A lot of talk on other threads about eg J10D, J31 etc got me thinking about the many rumoured projects we've heard about but not seen flying. I thought I'd do a thread on these various projects and give my estimation for the likelihood/status of each project using this rating scale:

5 - almost certainly exists/blurry images of prototypes seen/strongly hinted at by AVIC/PLA
4 - probably exists, strong persistent rumours, mentioned in CMPR
3 - Maybe exists, some models that may bear some resemblance to something, some rumours from sometime credible sources
2 - probably doesn't exist, old rumours/models, no news for some years
1 - About as credible as Minnie Chan and Idiot Sandwich

So, on to the projects:

H-20 - 5
J15D - 5
J-XX - 4
Loyal Wingman UCAV - 4
JH-XX - 4
AHL Helo - 4
C-5 size transport - 3
Twin W20 tactical transport - 3
Y-30 - 2
J10D with WS15 - 1

Anything I missed?
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
Tilt rotor aircraft - 4
10-ton class attack helicopter - 4
Stealth helo - 4
Y-20 based AWACS - 3
Y-8/9 Gunship - 2
An-225 equivalent - 1
VTOL fighter - 1
Light stealth fighter - 1

In your list, I would downgrade the JH-XX to 2 and promote the Y-30 to 3. This is subjective of course.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
C-5 size transport has the problem that there would be no engines for one. At best they could have gotten the D-18T used in the An-124 some years ago. But we have no evidence of that happening and now it is impossible to get tech transfer. Only after CJ-2000 engine is available could such an aircraft be pursued I think. Same deal with An-225. Although we had rumors of intent of Chinese investment in such a project several years ago.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
C-5 size transport has the problem that there would be no engines for one. At best they could have gotten the D-18T used in the An-124 some years ago. But we have no evidence of that happening and now it is impossible to get tech transfer. Only after CJ-2000 engine is available could such an aircraft be pursued I think. Same deal with An-225. Although we had rumors of intent of Chinese investment in such a project several years ago.
Click to expand...
CJ-2000 is far away. and most probably this engine is strictly for commercial airliners.

China dodged the bullet. D-18T are some of the most inefficient high bypass turbofan engines. and that Motor SICH blockade from Ukrainian government forced China to pursue own development. and look at the results. best decision taken by the Ukrainian government.

WS-20 more advance variant 25 tons thrust engine currently under development .. 50,000 lbs thrust engine is more than enough for this project. equivalent to AN-124/C-5 engines.

2015 paper. just for the reference.
academic paper in 2015. They are developing an engine equivalent to tf39 thrust (based on ws20...jpg

if this project get approval from authorities, by that time China will have own 50,000-60,000 lbs thrust engine. derived from WS-20. Shenyang working on two different projects based on WS-20..

i m not counting CJ series. they are on different path.
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
sunnymaxi said:
CJ-2000 is far away. and most probably this engine is strictly for commercial airliners.

China dodged the bullet. D-18T are some of the most inefficient high bypass turbofan engines. and that Motor SICH blockade from Ukrainian government forced China to pursue own development. and look at the results. best decision taken by the Ukrainian government.

WS-20 more advance variant 25 tons thrust engine currently under development .. 50,000 lbs thrust engine is more than enough for this project. equivalent to AN-124/C-5 engines.

2015 paper. just for the reference.
View attachment 102798

if this project get approval from authorities, by that time China will have own 50,000-60,000 lbs thrust engine. derived from WS-20. Shenyang working on two different projects based on WS-20..

i m not counting CJ series. they are on different path.
Click to expand...
I agree with your points but a de-rated CJ-2000 would be the best choice for such an aircraft. Civilian engines are a lot more reliable and efficient. They also have the economy of scales. The WS-20 is more of an act of desperation rather than something deliberate. If the CJ-1000 was ready China would just use it.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Maikeru said:
A lot of talk on other threads about eg J10D, J31 etc got me thinking about the many rumoured projects we've heard about but not seen flying. I thought I'd do a thread on these various projects and give my estimation for the likelihood/status of each project using this rating scale:

5 - almost certainly exists/blurry images of prototypes seen/strongly hinted at by AVIC/PLA
4 - probably exists, strong persistent rumours, mentioned in CMPR
3 - Maybe exists, some models that may bear some resemblance to something, some rumours from sometime credible sources
2 - probably doesn't exist, old rumours/models, no news for some years
1 - About as credible as Minnie Chan and Idiot Sandwich

So, on to the projects:

H-20 - 5
J15D - 5
J-XX - 4
Loyal Wingman UCAV - 4
JH-XX - 4
AHL Helo - 4
C-5 size transport - 3
Twin W20 tactical transport - 3
Y-30 - 2
J10D with WS15 - 1

Anything I missed?
Click to expand...
Is the JH-XX refering to China's 6th-generation fighter?

BoraTas said:
I agree with your points but a de-rated CJ-2000 would be the best choice for such an aircraft. Civilian engines are a lot more reliable and efficient. They also have the economy of scales. The WS-20 is more of an act of desperation rather than something deliberate. If the CJ-1000 was ready China would just use it.
Click to expand...
Agreed. In fact, it is a rather common practice for civilian jetliners to use the same turbofan engines as those used on military transport aircrafts.

Prominent example being the C-5 which shares the same engines with Airbus A300 and A330, plus Boeing 747 and 767. Another example would be the C-17 sharing the same engines with Boeing 757.
 
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