Question about Yuan period, black death and depopulation?

I posted this in the another forum and it seems there is not much traffic there.
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I know that black death is one of the most defining moment in European history, as it killed 1/3 of the population. But I read that many people says that bubonic plague was originally come from the East, by that they probably means China.

But I can't find any evidence that China ever had them, and if they did, then the scale of the break out would be surely be just as horrific as the effect in Europe, China had more population, and think the majority of the population are not immune to it.

So even without any direct evidence of bubonic plague breaking out in China, but I did find some interesting trend happening at the same time. 1st, the black death break out in Europe was at the same time of the Yuan rule, or rather at the end of the Yuan period, 2nd I read there were many suffering and depopulation at end of Yuan period due to natural disaster, famine, disease etc... they can all be linked to the side effect to the out break of the plague. 3rd. The Chinese population at the later period of Yuan was somewhere around 85 million people, but the population at the beginning of Ming was around 65 million people, that is about 25% decrease in population, which is on par with the death rate for bubonic plague in Europe.

However with all this information I can't find any direct evidence of bubonic plague outbreak in any period of the Chinese history whatsoever.

Anyone knows anything more willing to share your opinion?

stardave said:

But I can't find any evidence that China ever had them, and if they did, then the scale of the break out would be surely be just as horrific as the effect in Europe, China had more population, and think the majority of the population are not immune to it.

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Not necessarily. There's a reason they call it the "Dark Ages" in the West. China at the time had far better medical knowledge and hygiene practices than Europe.

I think that if something as distinctive and widespread as the Black Death occurred in China, it would have been recorded in the histories. Most likely, the 25% decrease in population was from the constant peasant rebellions and brutal repressions in the late Yuan years. Remember that in addition to fighting the Mongols, the Han rebels fought huge battles among themselves.

I don't think better hygiene will help very much with bubonic plague, it can spread really easy, and China's city back then had more population density than European cities.

And wasn't the myth that bubonic plague spread from the Mongols via the silk roads? That the Mongol army catapulted infected dead bodies into the city they were trying to siege.

So is there any record of any kind of disease outbreak during the last years of Yuan?

In reply to Solar's comments, yes we Chinese are best at geno-suiciding. No one can beat us when it comes to making miracles as well as destroying ourselves. If the Chinese civilization is to be destroyed or disappear, it's probably through our own hands of us killing each other, than anything...not nukes or some superpower hegemon. Last time we faced invaders from foreign or domestic, we'd rather die and suicide en mass through war or various methods, than to surrender. The fact we Chinese are capable of killing 1/3rd of our entire population since the beginning of times, as well as wiping out entire tribes, cities, ethnic groups, or assimilate them kinda shows we are both the world's greatest force as well as destructive and bloodiest one. (Oh and I'm not saying like I'm proud of it. It's just that's how Chinese history had been) While others' war fight in numbers of hundreds and thousands, our ancient generals easily lead armies of thousands if not ten thousands, while an entire fighting force usually is no less than 100,000. Such a number still rival or surpass many contemporary military forces in terms of number.

Anyways..

I won't be surprised if there are plague in China before(hear about that on TVB shows often lol), but it seems those never had any true catastrophic effect that equates to what exists in Europe. I kind of have a reason to believe that it's more than just plague itself, but also weather, time of the year, origins, breeds, and cultural practices. For that reason, perhaps regions had small-scale outbreaks, but not one of devastating natures like those in the medieval. Furthermore, I do believe breeds of rats and immunity probably had its share, which might cause the devastation to Europe like smallpox killed the North American First Nations.

Finally, what kills Chinese in the past aside from man-made factors, were droughts and famine.

I don't think China experienced the black death. We had something far worse - constant famine, floods, droughts, and a Yuan gov. that didn't care about its people. There is a reason for the massive insurrections by the Han Chinese during the end of the Yuan Dynasty.

stardave said:

I don't think better hygiene will help very much with bubonic plague, it can spread really easy, and China's city back then had more population density than European cities.

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Europe at the time did not have sewage systems, and waste were dumped by the roadside. Also their Christian believe make them reluctant to dispose bodies quickly through burning. Superstitions led them to believe witches and other black arts were at work, and lead to widespread slaughter of cats, removing the one main enemy of rats, the real plague carrier, among other examples.

I think the original outbreak occurred in the steppe region, where population was sparse. It was vectored westward during a campaign by mongol.

stardave said:

I don't think better hygiene will help very much with bubonic plague, it can spread really easy, and China's city back then had more population density than European cities.

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Actually, a lack of hygiene plays a critical role in the transmission of any epidemic disease. In addition to lacking a sewage system, the medieval Europeans also lacked any kind of medical knowledge about diseases. Theories about the plague ranged from "bad air" to "punishment from God". Obviously, without understanding of the nature of infectious diseases, they would have no idea how to combat it properly.

It's also untrue that China's cities had higher population density than European cities in those days. Have you ever seen a medieval city? It's tiny! The streets are narrow and people are cramped together. The streets are not paved and people have to slog through mud and filth. Medieval Chinese cities, although they had a higher population, were also much bigger. In fact, China also simply had far more cities than Europe.

The majority of Chinese back then lived in rural areas. Even today the majority of them don't live in the big cities. Also with one single unified empire it is easier to enforce border control, city lock down and check points etc.

To answer your question, first think about this: What % of the North American population did the small pox wipe out? And what was the % of Europeans wiped out by small pox around that time?