north korean theory

Is it possible that when kim jong il's health starts to fail that he will atempt re-unification? or will he pass on the leader ship to his eldest son kim jong nam? does he have the power to do so? with out nuclear arms? i read the north koreans have 1.3 million troops compared to s koreas 686 thousand but the north koreans equipment may be some what out dated

Hasnt Nam fallen from Kim Jong il's favor ever since being arrested at tokyo international airport with a dominacan republic passport and chiense alias in 2001?

He was deported to China. This incident caused Kim quite some embarassment. most likely Kim Jong Chul will be future leader of the DPRK

Would you guys think, one day, just maybe one day the two country will be united?

After half century of embrassment and seperation? Would the two brother walk together again in the name of one and only ONE Korea?

Kim is not crazy enough to attempt forced reunification, he want to a nation to one of his sons. Though NK has over a million men in arms, but SK has around 700K + US troops, so its more or less a fair fight in terms of numbers. But SK has a huge techological advantage over NK. If SK has any disadvantage, it that Seoul is so damn close to the NK border, within artilliary range if i remember correctly.

Would the fighting even be cotained to the dmz? i think if the n koreans would atempt a concentrated breakthrough (and if they had strategic surprise could very well make it a mobile war) and does any one know the troop placements that are actually on the dmz and that are in s korea itself?

MiG 21 said:

Would the fighting even be cotained to the dmz? i think if the n koreans would atempt a concentrated breakthrough (and if they had strategic surprise could very well make it a mobile war) and does any one know the troop placements that are actually on the dmz and that are in s korea itself?

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No. The DMZ would be broken through, but the war would probably resemble the first Korean War. Eventually the KPA (Korean People's Army) would break under assault be superior armour and air attack.

I don't think "our dear leader" as they call him in the DPRK would be dumb enough to essentially commit suicide and take thousands of Koreans and Americans with him.

About eventual reunification...I don't hink it will happen until the North undergoes some sort of "glasnost and perestroika". South Korea wouldn't even want the North. It would essentially be taking on one of the worlds poorest nations, all for them to support. South Korea would probably deliver foreign aid to the North if it showed signs of liberalization, but it would not allow unification until the North brought up its economic bottom line. If the Kim regieme liberalized, possibly under some future, enlightened Kim, and spent less on the military, it might be able to achieve this. But until then, reunification would be an economic disaster for the South.

This is South Korea's military.

Total Military Force
Active: 686,000
Reserves: 4,500,000

Army (560,000)
HQ: 3 Army, 11 Corps
3 Mechanized Infantry Divisions with 3 Brigades: 3 Mechanized Infantry, 3 Tank, 1 Reconnaissance, 1 Engineering Battalion, 1 Field Artillery Brigade
19 Infantry Divisions with 3 Infantry Regiments, 1 Reconnaissance, 1 Tank, 1 Engineering Battalion, 1 Artillery Regiment
2 Independent Infantry Brigades, 7 Special Forces Brigades, 3 Counter-Inflitration Brigades, 3 SSM Battalions, 3 Advanced Deployment Artillery Brigade, 3 I HAWK Battalions (24 sites), 2 Nike Hercules Battalions (10 sites), 1 Aviation Command with 1 Air Assault Brigade

Navy (63,000)
Bases: Chinhae (HQ), Cheju, Mokpo, Mukho, Pohang, Pusan, Pyongtaek, Tonghae

Air Force (63,000)
4 Commands: Operations, Southern Combat, Logistics, Tactical Reconnaissance Group

Forces Abroad and Foreign Forces
Kyrgystan: 90 (medical staff)
UNFICYP (Cyprus) 1
UNMISET (Timor): 225
UNOMIG (Georgia): 7 observers
UNMOGIP (India/Pakistan: 9 observers
Currently Stationed in South Korea:
US: ARMY - 28,600; 1 HQ, 1 Infantry Division
NAVY - 300
AIR FORCE - 9,420
USMC - 180

Paramilitary (4,500 active)
Civilian Defense Corps: 3,500,000
Maritime Policy: 4,500

North Korea's military.

Total Military Force
Active: 1,082,000
Reserves: 4,700,000

Army (950,000)
Active: 20 Corps (1 Armored, 4 Mechanized, 12 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 1 Capital Defense)
27 Infantry Divisions with 15 Armored Brigades, 14 Infantry Brigades, 21 Artillery Brigades, 9 MRL Brigades
Special Purpose Forces Command (88,000): 10 Sniper Brigades, 12 Light Infantry Brigades, 17 Reconnaissance Brigades
Reserves: 40 Infantry Divisions, 18 Infantry Brigades

Navy (46,000)
Bases: East Coast Toejo Dong (HQ), Changjon, Munchon, Songjon-pardo, Mugye-po, Mayang-do, Chaho Nodongjagu, Puam-Dong, Najin West Coast Nampo (HQ), Pipa Got, Sagon-ni, Chodo-ri, Koampo, Tasa-ri 2 Fleet HQ

Air Force (86,000)
4 Air Divisions. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Air Divisions are responsible for the North, East, and South air defense sectors respectively. 8th Air Division remains responsible for the North East sector.
Flying Hours: 20 or less

Forces Abroad and Foreign Forces
North Korean military advisors are known to be in some 12 African countries.

Paramilitary (189,000)
Security Troops: 189,000 including Border Guards, and Public Safety Personnel
Peasant/Worker Red Guard: Over 3,500,000 organized on a local level, most with small arms; however many have known to be unarmed. They are known to be organized into brigades, battalions, companies, and platoons.



My source.

That's both their militaries, basically.

Not counting the reserves, NK has 1,082,000 active, and SK has 686,000 active. That's a 396,000 difference, which isn't horribly bad. SK by itself might get lucky and beat NK, but it's not likely. It'd probably need US intervention. Throw in the Reserve count difference, and you had a 596,000 difference. NK will take men aged 17-49 for the Military, and they list the numbers available for service as 5,851,801 by the CIA World Fact Book. SK is listed to have the ability to get men aged 20-49 as 12,458,257 for service. :] SK has about a 48.85 Million Population. NK only has about 23.1 Million Population. SK holds a population advantage over NK, much like the North held one over the South in the American Civil War. However, since war is more technologically based rather than numerically based today, whoever has the more technologically advanced military is likely to win.

Ender's Shadow said:

This is South Korea's military.
Not counting the reserves, NK has 1,082,000 active, and SK has 686,000 active. That's a 396,000 difference, which isn't horribly bad. SK by itself might get lucky and beat NK, but it's not likely. It'd probably need US intervention. Throw in the Reserve count difference, and you had a 596,000 difference. NK will take men aged 17-49 for the Military, and they list the numbers available for service as 5,851,801 by the CIA World Fact Book. SK is listed to have the ability to get men aged 20-49 as 12,458,257 for service. :] SK has about a 48.85 Million Population. NK only has about 23.1 Million Population. SK holds a population advantage over NK, much like the North held one over the South in the American Civil War. However, since war is more technologically based rather than numerically based today, whoever has the more technologically advanced military is likely to win.

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I strongly doubt that the difference in civilian population will be an advantage in any potential conflict. The fact stands that though North Korea does indeed enjoy numerical superiority, they cannot deploy all of those troops at once, making them only useful if both sides are suffering from a war of attrition and the side with more reserves comes up on top.

That advantage is quickly negated by foreign assistance, of course. Also, I think you have it backwards. SOUTH Korea has the technological advantage over the North, not the other way around.