Muti-role Aircraft and affordability

Miragedriver

Brigadier
All of us guys (sorry ladies) have at least a tool box and several power tools. Have you ever done a project at home that requires you to use a screwdriver? Of course…… Some projects require the use of your trusty drill with a screw attachment. However some just require a simple screwdriver (flathead or philips, take you pick)

So what has this got to do with military equipment?

Due to limited military budgets and scaling back of our militaries and in the drive to commonality of parts, maintenance and reduce training, etc. we are moving to fewer and fewer aircraft types.We no longer have multiple tool with overlap for the job we have the one supper tool for multiple jobs. In other words we are utilizing a power drill for simple projects were a screwdriver would do the job just fine.

No longer do we have strike aircraft, ECM aircraft, air superiority aircraft and close air support aircraft. Instead of a A-10, F-111, F-15, F-16, F-18 mix we are moving to F-22 and F-35 fleet and in reality, it is possible that F-35 might be the only fast jet aircraft in service doing the job of all these.

While this might be good news on one side of the cost equation it might not be as good news on another. Does the F-35 have the same range as the F-111? Can it provide ground support like the A-10?

The question we should ask is has this finance driven ruthless commonality and multi-roll gone too far, are these cost savings illusory because we are moving towards one tool that can do everything, but not do it all , that well.

While we might reap the commonality rewards of using the high end tool for low end jobs the funding reality of a finite budget means we suffer from reduced quantities, the so called procurement death spiral where increasingly expensive tools can only be obtained in increasingly small quantities, which makes the unit cost go up and…………… you get the picture.

So the question becomes: “Why not have two simpler aircraft?” “One for air superiority and one for CAS/strike missions?”

Imagine a CAS aircraft could carry out a single ‘on call’ mission of 3 to 4 hours without refueling, have the speed the speed to react to troops in contact in a reasonable time and carry enough payload to provide a range of munitions to the forward air controller that suit the requirement.

In the strike role, in permissive or semi permissive air environment, operating at a medium altitude it should also be able to either operate at significant range against pre planned targets or at a shorter range/with ASM, against targets of opportunity.

These “less expensive” aircraft can fly in conjunction with air superiority aircraft in an early theater entry for the destruction of enemy air defenses. They could also launch standoff cruise missiles.

Would the cost of introducing and operating such an aircraft be greater or less than wearing out precious F-35 airframes for destroying targets that effectively have no defense i.e. the majority of missions they are/will be used for.

I can see most of you complaining at the cost of another aircraft. However think of the number of aircraft, air crew, ground crew, support contracts, spares and tanker support (with its associated support and personnel cost), currently supporting these expensive fast multi-roll aircraft. Then factor into that the likely costs of a future UCAV.

I know we are not comparing power drills and screwdrivers, but what if all we actually need for the job is a screwdriver?



I will now get back to bottling my Malbec


Remember as Popeye and Jeff always say:
Stay on topic. and follow the rules
 
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
No longer do we have strike aircraft, ECM aircraft, air superiority aircraft and close air support aircraft. Instead of a A-10, F-111, F-15, F-16, F-18 mix we are moving to F-22 and F-35 fleet and in reality, it is possible that F-35 might be the only fast jet aircraft in service doing the job of all these.
Well, this is not really true.

By 2030, the US Air Force will operate the following types of manned, fixed wing, combat aircraft (excluding Tankers, logistics, trainers)

F-22A Raptor - Air Superiority
F-35A Lightning II - Strike Fighter
F-X (6th generation) - Fighter/Attack
E-3G Sentry AWACS
B-52H CONECT Stratofortress Bomber/Strike
B-1B Lancer Bomber/Strike
B-2A Spirit Bomber/Strike
LRS-B Strike/ Bomber
EC-130 Compass Call Electronic Warfare
AC-130J Ghost Rider Attack
RC-135VW Rivet Joint SIGINT
JSTARS RECAP Battlefield Management, Command and Control

Then, lets add the US Navy and US Marines manned, fixed wing aircraft:

US NAVY:
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (Advanced Hornet Config) Strike Fighter
F-35C Lightning II Strike Fighter
F/A-XX (6th generation) Fighter/Attack
EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare
E-2D Hawkeye AEW
E-6B Mercury Electronic Wrfare
P-8A Poseidon ASW/Mariitime Attack

US MARINES:
F-35B Lightning II Strike Fighter
F/A-XX (6th generation) Fighter/Attack
EA-18G Growler Electronic Wrfare

When you add all of that togehter...and then include the attack helicopters and the numerous unmanned attack aircraft, you end up with an extremely well rounded capability for US Air Power.

Though, mno matter how you cut it, in particular, a platform like the the A-10s will be missed for any close support requiring their very heavily armored and rugged air frames.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Well, this is not really true.

By 2030, the US Air Force will operate the following types of manned, fixed wing, combat aircraft (excluding Tankers, logistics, trainers)

F-22A Raptor - Air Superiority
F-35A Lightning II - Strike Fighter
F-X (6th generation) - Fighter/Attack
E-3G Sentry AWACS
B-52H CONECT Stratofortress Bomber/Strike
B-1B Lancer Bomber/Strike
B-2A Spirit Bomber/Strike
LRS-B Strike/ Bomber
EC-130 Compass Call Electronic Warfare
AC-130J Ghost Rider Attack
RC-135VW Rivet Joint SIGINT
JSTARS RECAP Battlefield Management, Command and Control

Then, lets add the US Navy and US Marines manned, fixed wing aircraft:

US NAVY:
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (Advanced Hornet Config) Strike Fighter
F-35C Lightning II Strike Fighter
F/A-XX (6th generation) Fighter/Attack
EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare
E-2D Hawkeye AEW
E-6B Mercury Electronic Wrfare
P-8A Poseidon ASW/Mariitime Attack

US MARINES:
F-35B Lightning II Strike Fighter
F/A-XX (6th generation) Fighter/Attack
EA-18G Growler Electronic Wrfare

When you add all of that togehter...and then include the attack helicopters and the numerous unmanned attack aircraft, you end up with an extremely well rounded capability for US Air Power.

Though, mno matter how you cut it, in particular, a platform like the the A-10s will be missed for any close support requiring their very heavily armored and rugged air frames.

Thanks Jeff,

Well the US Military is well diversified (and hopefully it will always be the arsenal of democracy) due to its many assets. My emphasis was more on smaller nations that are going to one multi-roll type. Such as:

England: The typhoon is a great aircraft but I imagine that they miss their Harriers, Buccaneers and Jaguars. I am sure that the Tornados days will be numbered in the next decade.

dZBC2Os.jpg


Germany: Lots of Typhoons and the amount of Tornados dropping, F-4 are all gone.

Italy: Same thing, but at least they still have the AMX

France: Going all in on the Rafale, I imagine that the Mirage 2000 will move to the dedicated strike roll

Spain: Again with the Typhoon, but at least they have F-18 that can transition of the Strike roll.

Since these multi-roll aircraft are so expensive I see both military and politicians not wanting to lose any, thereby unnecessarily prolonging the conflict and/or causing more casualties due to fear of losing any air assets.


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Thanks Jeff,

Well the US Military is well diversified (and hopefully it will always be the arsenal of democracy) due to its many assets. My emphasis was more on smaller nations that are going to one multi-roll type. Such as:

England: The typhoon is a great aircraft but I imagine that they miss their Harriers, Buccaneers and Jaguars.

Germany: Lots of Typhoons and the amount of Tornados dropping, F-4 are all gone.

Italy: Same thing, but at least they still have the AMX

France: Going all in on the Rafale, I imagine that the Mirage 2000 will move to the dedicated strike roll

Spain: Again with the Typhoon, but at least they have F-18 that can transition of the Strike roll.
I agree with most of this. Except I have to add that the UK in their naval air arm will be replacing the Harriers with the F-35Bs so they will have a bit of diversity.

When you get to countries like Brazil and others, it is similar.

Then you have Russia, China, and India, all of whom, to one extent or another will have a fairly diversified force.
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Nice Buccaneers picture Miragedriver ! 4 Sea Eagles against Soviet Northern Fleet in the passage Greenland - Iceland - UK, a second battle of the Atlantic...

Otherwise for the Typhoon only Tr 3 are really Muti-role, fighter, bomber, carry CM maybe AShM but not yet in service, soon.
( What stupidity UK have removed these very good Harrier GR9 who had just been upgraded ! )

F-35 depends versions and improvements coming.

I think actually the best Muti-role is the Rafale, a precision French AF Rafale not carry AShM AM-39 only Navy version use.

Grippen also very good,

Different for Chinese, Russian, India aircrafts begin, Su-35S, maybe J-16 but this is not the same mentality, aircrafts are more specialised for use.

Last things Mir 2000D which are not very old ( delivered about 1992/2000 ) should be retained up to 2030 and upgraded with a new radar for use Mica AAM ( the current radar is only Air to ground then only IR missiles used ) about 60 Mir 2000D max , 700 Mill € but project postponed.
 
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Miragedriver

Brigadier
I agree with most of this. Except I have to add that the UK in their naval air arm will be replacing the Harriers with the F-35Bs so they will have a bit of diversity.

When you get to countries like Brazil and others, it is similar.

Then you have Russia, China, and India, all of whom, to one extent or another will have a fairly diversified force.

What is interesting Jeff is that I am just amazed at the cost of combat aircraft and military equipment in general? Last night I went on Google and found the cost of a P-51 Mustang in 1945 to be approximately $us 90,000 dollars, which if adjusted for inflation (
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) would in today’s dollar cost around $us2,000,000. Granted the P-51 had the advantage of economies of scale to reduce cost
PvK73XE.jpg
.
Then I looked up the cost of an F-4 Phantom in 1965 to be approximately $us 2,500,000 dollars, which if again adjusted for inflation would cost in today’s dollars around $19,000,000.
RNPzR7E.jpg


With F-16I costing around $60,000,000 “flyaway cost”, and even a SU-30 costing around $55,000,000 “flyaway cost”. I just seems that costs have gotten out of control. Mainly due to the incredible electronics, but also due to the development cost, assembly line setup and limited production runs.
5kgxE1n.jpg

The future may indeed belong to more advanced and multirole aircraft, but maybe a little bit cheaper, please? It seems that because of rapidly increasing costs of the new military aircraft, governments and military officers have decided to reduce many types of military airplanes and replace them with only a few extremely functional multirole aircraft (as you pointed out the exceptions are USA, Russia and China). This will reduce the overall cost of the Aerial warfare, but the development programs will be more advanced and probably amazingly expensive. So the cost of each airplane will depend on how many of them will be manufactured.

Even though the “flyaway cost” is high for these new multi-roll aircraft, the overall cost will also comprise development costs, maintenance costs during its lifespan. Fuel, spare parts, inspections, repairs and everything else connected with an aircraft. All this adds even more to the not only high cost of acquisition.

The majority of the world air forces buy lower end fighters. These are now being turned into the haves and have nots. The haves, such as South Korea, moved up into the F-15 or F-35 market, India with the Su-30. The majority of the have-not countries — including Colombia, Kenya and Argentina — no longer buy anything except used planes. The market for combat aircraft has either migrated up or down.

Many of the world air forces that are looking to upgrade their fleet are probable looking at brochures about fighters of "fourth" and "fifth" generation. They probably do not really understand what they are for. Yet, they are well aware of the fact that having such an aircraft in the fleet of their air force would certainly be prestigious, although it is: a) expensive, b) technically difficult.

Just based on this simple logic, aircraft on the 5th, and all sorts of "4 + +" generations will lose to more simple and cheaper solutions, particularly in the markets of the Third World. Technical complexity and versatility are able to provide a strategic advantage, but only in combination with a sufficient quantity. The latter will be impossible to reach due to the high price. Having invested heavily in a relatively small fleet of technically advanced aircraft, the air force of a small country is at risk of finding itself in this type of situation: there will be no air support – we can’t afford to lose the aircraft

Most likely, this is the beginning of a crisis for manned aviation against the backdrop of rising prices and increasing requirements for training of pilots. The number of countries that can afford modern piloted aircraft will inevitably decline. Sooner or later, this number will coincide with the number of countries that manufacturer aircraft. As a result, aviation producers will have to choose from either internal markets or a very narrow circle of several potential customers who will be able to afford to have and upgrade a fleet of "fourth" and "fifth" generation fighters

That is just my concern in this expensive world of combat aircraft.


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

delft

Brigadier
Miragedriver, you avoided talking about the type of war a country has to prepare itself for.

>>>>> Removed rediculous, outragously speculative war scenario of US invading the Dutch <<<<<

The Dutch military prepare themselves to support a US action against some country in Africa or Asia. Buying F-35's at this time is much more industrial policy, i.e. spending $1b to buy into the production of these aircraft and hoping that some Dutch companies will earn it back in the future. Just mixing in these arguments in the decision process will prevent you reaching a decision that is good for your military and not damaging to your treasury.

And of course F-35 is my bete noir. If you decide to produce three aircraft for three services and combine to a large extend the production of common parts - which is mostly the electronics - you can save years and billions of dollars over the development period and probably also in production and maintenance and fuel. It might of course mean that the Marines aircraft comes out too expensive altogether in which case the Marines will have to learn to fight another way.
 
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Come on Delft...there is no need for that.

The rest of your comments are very good and thought provoking. But we do not need outragous speculation like that other.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Labor costs not only in production but also in development. But not only that. Producing a fighter that is almost as capable as your 5 times more expensive fighters creates competition to yourself. There is only so much you can reduce in its capabilities before it becomes too incapable, obsolete, worse than high-tech second hand fighters (Mirage-2000-5, F-16 Block 30/35 etc..) with a 1000 or 2000 hours left on the airframe

Unfortunately in industrialized western nations too cheap (inexpensive) = Unprofitable.
If an aircraft manufactures wanted to make a high and lower end fighter it would need to install a reasonable amount of advanced technology so it could find buyers to get profitable. This might have two of the following effects:

a) Making the aircraft too expensive directly which would cause it to have problems finding buyers.
b) Or would cut into sales of more advanced fighters and thus become unprofitable for the company.


The only option available would be for a non-super power to develop a competitive and inexpensive combat aircraft. Of course this the opens up a new set of problems. These sales would be intended for Third World counties that are not known for their stability, they are however known for doing morally dubious things to their population and neighboring populations with military hardware.

Also some Western European states letting neighbors handle their skies. This leaves you with a fairly small and unreliable market.

Now here comes the multi-billion dollar question: How do you imagine such a low cost fighter to be? As capable as a Mig-29A? Nobody would buy is since they could get old fighters from all over the world, that wouldn't even be profitable even if it would find customers. As good as 20 year old F-16's? There are enough of those for sale (need to be an American Allie first). Then there are enough options to get something like that. There are enough second hand Western fighters around that fulfill that criteria. Would it be as good as a Gripen? No, that would be too expensive. That is the question: How do you imagine/define such a cheap low-tech western fighter to be. Once you define that you'll find out that it is not possible for that ever to happen, out of multiple reasons.

That then takes us to the Unmanned Combat air Vehicle, of which we will see more of in the future.

Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV)
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I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 
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