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Nevermore

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
Therefore, we may need to accept several realities:
1. China will face severe aging in the future, accompanied by a significant decline in its total population, while the domestic market will experience gradual contraction.
2. China's pool of engineers, combined with automation, is sufficient to sustain its long-term, exceptionally robust and massive industrial base. Against the backdrop of automation, China will neither lack industrial labor nor engineers. As long as China can secure domestic or international order demand, its manufacturing sector can rapidly achieve production of any industrial product.

What I envision is China attempting to transition toward a communist society by the 2060s—meaning the complete abandonment of real estate and certain basic consumer industries. Marriage, childbirth, housing, childcare, and all ordinary living costs would be fully covered by the government. All production would be handled by robots—a factory that once required 100,000 workers would need only one person. Talent would be concentrated in high-end laboratories and research institutes, and the birth rate would rebound to 2.1 over the next century.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
I'm all for discussing demographic issues. But it feels like repeating the same crap over and over again which is a waste of time given this thread is about news. We know a lot of china haters keep repeating it over and over again despite the fact that countries like India are already below 2 in TFR. They don't really care about the details or even viable solutions. Simply hoping China fails because they are running out of ideas.

A system that relies constantly on new immigrants coming in is just a reactive pyramid scheme waiting to blow up because you're eventually gonna run out of new people as global birth rates go down (keep in mind you need more and more people to keep the growth up). I don't even need to mention the other issues that come up. That's why even western elites shill AI so much coz they know automation is the future. But unfortunately automation is hard and requires a lot to go right before you can even implement at a good scale. Frankly speaking you need really competent and smart people to make sure it all goes according to plan.
 
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Chevalier

Chevalier

Major
Registered Member
uguduwa said:
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All signs point to China going Japan‘s way. East Asians are too closed off for immigration, cultural assimilation etc. Automation is for now too hyped that it won‘t replace workers massively anytime soon. I am curious how the future is going to look like.
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Perhaps but I have another theory, next year is the year of the sheep/ram and you will likely find another reduction in Chinese births by virtue of the fact that ppl born under this year are considered unlucky and unfortunate (traditionally). The current horse year could well be favourable and some families may have tried for a child for this year, but the chances of a sheep year are also increased.

Sardaukar20 said:
Naah man, China is not Japan. China is nobody's puppet. I dare say that a screwed up Japan is doing way better than that Supapowar India. They have a fraction of the population and workforce, yet still maintain a much better overall economy.

Nobody in the real world shares your pessimism for automation. Automation works and it's gonna be the death knell of that overhyped, underskilled "demographic dividend" of India. After more than 11 years of Make in India, this nation still has a lower percentage of manufacturing in the GDP compared to Vietnam. This is shameful progress.

India has roughly a decade left to catch the last train to industrialization. After that, it's the middle income trap. But India's education system has been disaster, and not getting any better. It's current workforce cannot even compete with SEA in manufacturing. Statistics is worthless if it cannot be converted into useful human capital.

With automation, SEA and East Asia will maintain a massive industrial lead over India. Companies would take automation over unskilled, undisciplined workers anytime. This is the harsh reality. India better get it's act together NOW. Stop bad mouthing other countries and start working hard. There isn't much time left.
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when in any of Indian modern history and in Indian practice, have Indians ever practiced forward thinking and future planning for the benefit of other Indian ppl in the subcontinent? Their primary goal has always been to export their useless mouths with feet to influence other democracies via lobby groups and hog all the choice jobs and real estate as a parasitical Gypsy class.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013248074588840228

never change, Vietnam.

Trumpks board of peace is meant to replace the UN with himself being perpetual arbiter and king of this new organisation. Even when he leaves the presidency he will have control over this board, Vietnam acquiescing to trumps delusion is its toady mealy mouthed pissant weak nature expressing itself.
 
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G

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nevermore said:
Therefore, we may need to accept several realities:
1. China will face severe aging in the future, accompanied by a significant decline in its total population, while the domestic market will experience gradual contraction.
2. China's pool of engineers, combined with automation, is sufficient to sustain its long-term, exceptionally robust and massive industrial base. Against the backdrop of automation, China will neither lack industrial labor nor engineers. As long as China can secure domestic or international order demand, its manufacturing sector can rapidly achieve production of any industrial product.

What I envision is China attempting to transition toward a communist society by the 2060s—meaning the complete abandonment of real estate and certain basic consumer industries. Marriage, childbirth, housing, childcare, and all ordinary living costs would be fully covered by the government. All production would be handled by robots—a factory that once required 100,000 workers would need only one person. Talent would be concentrated in high-end laboratories and research institutes, and the birth rate would rebound to 2.1 over the next century.
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Demographics is not destiny. How you organize your society to achieve great things matters much more, Japan/SK has fraction of the global population, and somehow maintain their economic importance.

Despite China's fertility rate plummeting, it has a demographic cushion that will carry it through mid-century without serious economic consequences. China's "Gen Alpha" generation (currently ages 6-16) is a large demographic echo of its massive Baby Boom, and will stabilize the workforce through the 2020s and keep the dependency ratio favorable until at least 2030. The dependency ratio won't surpass America's until the mid-2040s.

Two straightforward policy levers -- raising the retirement age from 50-60 to 65 and dramatically increasing college enrollment (already jumped from 26.5% to 60.2% since 2010) -- will offset all effects of gradual aging over the next 25 years. Real demographic strain won't materialize until post-2050 when the large Millennial generation retires without a comparable replacement cohort. The idea that demographics will erode China's competitive position in the next two decades is overblown.

Even now China has a surplus of several hundred million people that effectively work as subsistence farmers (catch all term for rurals that aren't adding much productivity). They have a truly massive supply of inexpensive labor still. It's one of the greatest supplies of available cheap labor on the planet, and it's not disappearing any time soon. Their eventual population decline will do nothing more than than raise the median standard of living.
 
H

Hitomi

Junior Member
Registered Member
gpt said:
Demographics is not destiny. How you organize your society to achieve great things matters much more, Japan/SK has fraction of the global population, and somehow maintain their economic importance.

Despite China's fertility rate plummeting, it has a demographic cushion that will carry it through mid-century without serious economic consequences. China's "Gen Alpha" generation (currently ages 6-16) is a large demographic echo of its massive Baby Boom, and will stabilize the workforce through the 2020s and keep the dependency ratio favorable until at least 2030. The dependency ratio won't surpass America's until the mid-2040s.

Two straightforward policy levers -- raising the retirement age from 50-60 to 65 and dramatically increasing college enrollment (already jumped from 26.5% to 60.2% since 2010) -- will offset all effects of gradual aging over the next 25 years. Real demographic strain won't materialize until post-2050 when the large Millennial generation retires without a comparable replacement cohort. The idea that demographics will erode China's competitive position in the next two decades is overblown.

Even now China has a surplus of several hundred million people that effectively work as subsistence farmers (catch all term for rurals that aren't adding much productivity). They have a truly massive supply of inexpensive labor still. It's one of the greatest supplies of available cheap labor on the planet, and it's not disappearing any time soon. Their eventual population decline will do nothing more than than raise the median standard of living.
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That is not even factoring the potential advances in medical care over the next 30 years or the child care benefits they can dole out as they please.

I have a feeling South Korea might also be the first to break some long held social barriers to increasing the birth rate soon at this rate to test the waters, which might make the other Western countries slowly adopt and gain social acceptance such as a childless tax or clear pro-natal propaganda.
 
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