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enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Nevermore said:
Therefore, we may need to accept several realities:
1. China will face severe aging in the future, accompanied by a significant decline in its total population, while the domestic market will experience gradual contraction.
2. China's pool of engineers, combined with automation, is sufficient to sustain its long-term, exceptionally robust and massive industrial base. Against the backdrop of automation, China will neither lack industrial labor nor engineers. As long as China can secure domestic or international order demand, its manufacturing sector can rapidly achieve production of any industrial product.

What I envision is China attempting to transition toward a communist society by the 2060s—meaning the complete abandonment of real estate and certain basic consumer industries. Marriage, childbirth, housing, childcare, and all ordinary living costs would be fully covered by the government. All production would be handled by robots—a factory that once required 100,000 workers would need only one person. Talent would be concentrated in high-end laboratories and research institutes, and the birth rate would rebound to 2.1 over the next century.
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Agree overall. I think abandonment of real estate can come a lot sooner than 2060. Real estate market slump? I'd step on the pedal and drive it all the way to zero. Suddenly Chinese don't need to save money to buy a house anymore, then you'll see what the true potential of purchasing power Chinese market has.

The way I see it, there is an unfair distribution of wealth in the system. Housing doesn't cost that much to build, why are they so expensive? Industrial products such as EV, countless engineers and workers toil to make it possible not to mention the materials, why are they so cheap? This needs to be balanced.

No doubt it is going to be extremely painful to implement, I can already hear the home owners screaming murder. Maybe such a move will only be possible after China won the fight on this planet.
 
PopularScience

PopularScience

Senior Member
Registered Member
enroger said:
Agree overall. I think abandonment of real estate can come a lot sooner than 2060. Real estate market slump? I'd step on the pedal and drive it all the way to zero. Suddenly Chinese don't need to save money to buy a house anymore, then you'll see what the true potential of purchasing power Chinese market has.

The way I see it, there is an unfair distribution of wealth in the system. Housing doesn't cost that much to build, why are they so expensive? Industrial products such as EV, countless engineers and workers toil to make it possible not to mention the materials, why are they so cheap? This needs to be balanced.

No doubt it is going to be extremely painful to implement, I can already hear the home owners screaming murder. Maybe such a move will only be possible after China won the fight on this planet.
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Housing price is so low now if you follow the market. Few hundred thousands can buy you a house in big city.
 
U

uguduwa

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Just out if curiosity, I just want one country to go full blown xenophobic and isolationist not lukewarm like the US. I just want it to be a controlled experiment so we can analize the effects a few years/months down the line so I hope Japan becomes even more extreme.
 
F

fishrubber99

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nevermore said:
2. China's pool of engineers, combined with automation, is sufficient to sustain its long-term, exceptionally robust and massive industrial base. Against the backdrop of automation, China will neither lack industrial labor nor engineers. As long as China can secure domestic or international order demand, its manufacturing sector can rapidly achieve production of any industrial product.
Click to expand...

To add to this, China's economic planning and development has always been underpinned by their demographic structure. The bulk of the housing/infrastructure construction in the past 3 decades has been cheaply and broadly built because of China's abundant surplus of young workers who were available to get into the construction and trades industries. But now with an aging and shrinking workforce, future economic planning (like Xi and draft of the next 5 year plan are saying) will be underpinned by China's surplus of college educated (and broadly in STEM education) workers and focus on high tech and "high quality growth". So I am pretty optimistic about this entire topic of aging, China's economic planners have shown that they really understand how to optimize the "build order" of an economy that effectively compliments their demographic structure and the resources that they have, like a skilled RTS player deeply understanding the timings of the civilization/faction that they're playing.

Some projections are showing China's workforce will have 45% tertiary education by 2040, double what it is now.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1839715033397264813
 
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