j7 / j8 production

Please do correct me here if you've got different info, but judging by the info i've gathered (plaaf orbat on sdf, scramble, rick kramer's site, plus info on production and variants produced) seems to tell me this: there's currently over 700 j7 (in all variants) in service with plaaf. (there also seems to be still some 200 j6 in service too, though thats bit off topic)

That is a LOT of planes to change with j10s or other comparable aircraft. Now, while there may not be exactly 1 on 1 modernization with new models, i don't think china can afford to go much lower than current total numbers. Todays state is already a huge decrease in sheer numbers compared to 3000 j6 fleet of some decades ago.

I've noticed another thing. j7e variant is often quoted to have been produced and delivered to plaaf in fairly large numbers - some 260 planes. That's during some 9-10 year long production run, before chengdu switched to j7g variant. That is close to 30 planes a year, not a shabby production schedule.

When we take into account that there are still old j8s present, perhaps up to some 150-200 models, we have some 1000-1100 planes to be replaced. (i'd guess a new j7g is more than fine replacement for old j8, even if range does lag behind a bit)

So question is: can we expect similar production numbers for G version as we did for E version? some 200-300 planes over next 10 years? That's in addition to j10s chengdu is making. Is that realistic? To me it seems like a necessity, as j10 production alone, even if j7 line is discontinued in favor of more money for j10 production, can't really replace all those planes within acceptable timeframe.

Also, in what numbers is the newest variant of j8II being produced? New airframes per month figure would be nice. Anyone have any idea how long will that last? Is the reason that its still being produced alongside j11 comparable to j7g / j10 situation? So, basically, is it realistic to expect, even in 2015, that we may see ongoing production of j7/j8 in various variants?

Totoro said:

So question is: can we expect similar production numbers for G version as we did for E version? some 200-300 planes over next 10 years? That's in addition to j10s chengdu is making. Is that realistic? To me it seems like a necessity, as j10 production alone, even if j7 line is discontinued in favor of more money for j10 production, can't really replace all those planes within acceptable timeframe.

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Prolly not the J-7G, but I think they'd produce additional variants in the future, possibly with BVR capability in competition vs. FC-1 for PLAAF budget. Future versions of the J-7 might not even look like a MiG-21, I mean, look at the JL-9/FTC-2000.

China has 14 neighbors on her border, and not everyone has a modern AF. Putting a sqad of J-7's to defend/patrol certain border regions is prolly more than sufficient, plus the other guy wouldn't feel too threatened, since the J-7 is not a ground strike aircraft anyway.

While even newer versions are possible for j7 i doubt we would see significant changes on the airframe itself, if any. That'd cost too much, and with all the other programs going on i'd think there's better way to invest that money. Advances in radar, rwr, cockpit, datalinks, hmd - perhaps. Even integrating new engine would be too much i fear, unless its exactly the same as old one

I dunno about bvr, either, not only is the space in that nosecone tiny but the angle at which the dish can be moved around seems rather restricted. It wouldn't be bad if it could carry bvr missiles so other fighters controll them once they're fired, though.

Another issue is that E version is quoted to be able to carry only 2 pl8 missiles. (or 4 pl5). Does G carry more? Maybe the airframe just doesnt allow for more improvements there. If true, it'd also be quite a limiting factor for bvr usage.

I wish i know how much G version costs plaaf. Export prices are one thing, but how much plaaf pays for each new j7g? Cause there is simply no excuse for ongoing production of that model when fc1 is present UNLESS the cost difference is huge. And fc1 is often qouted as very cheap, perhaps just 10-15 million for plaaf. So how much does j7g cost? 3-5 million? Or the truth is simpler and more sinister = politics

It'd be pretty efficient to get rid of q5 fleet and substitute it with something more multipurpose - like fc1. Perhaps just add a dedicated laser targeting system to the design, so no pylons have to be used up. It'd help export chances too...

Totoro said:

While even newer versions are possible for j7 i doubt we would see significant changes on the airframe itself, if any. That'd cost too much, and with all the other programs going on i'd think there's better way to invest that money. Advances in radar, rwr, cockpit, datalinks, hmd - perhaps. Even integrating new engine would be too much i fear, unless its exactly the same as old one

I dunno about bvr, either, not only is the space in that nosecone tiny

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but the angle at which the dish can be moved around seems rather restricted. It wouldn't be bad if it could carry bvr missiles so other fighters controll them once they're fired, though.

Another issue is that E version is quoted to be able to carry only 2 pl8 missiles. (or 4 pl5). Does G carry more? Maybe the airframe just doesnt allow for more improvements there. If true, it'd also be quite a limiting factor for bvr usage.

I wish i know how much G version costs plaaf. Export prices are one thing, but how much plaaf pays for each new j7g? Cause there is simply no excuse for ongoing production of that model when fc1 is present UNLESS the cost difference is huge. And fc1 is often qouted as very cheap, perhaps just 10-15 million for plaaf. So how much does j7g cost? 3-5 million? Or the truth is simpler and more sinister = politics

It'd be pretty efficient to get rid of q5 fleet and substitute it with something more multipurpose - like fc1. Perhaps just add a dedicated laser targeting system to the design, so no pylons have to be used up. It'd help export chances too...

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According to an "expert" on Chinese forum, they are basically just finishing up the existing orders. The only new orders are export orders.

Not sure about J-7G, but you can check F-7PG for ideas on how many hardpoints are on J-7.

As for cost? I can't imagine it would be more expensive than the 5.85 million that Bangladesh paid for each of its F-7s.

Another issue is that E version is quoted to be able to carry only 2 pl8 missiles. (or 4 pl5). Does G carry more? Maybe the airframe just doesnt allow for more improvements there. If true, it'd also be quite a limiting factor for bvr usage.

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Only 2 PL-8? Why the...........

The J-7E/G is said to be able to carry 2 tonnes, but the 4 AAMs(or 250 kg bombs) that arm the J-7s don't come anywhere near that 2 ton limit, so I'd think it can carry more. (Maybe they can fit Multiple Launch Units on it?) I doubt it can go BVR.
If China wants the J-7 to go BVR, they can just go for the FC-1 instead, why waste time on making another J-7 BVR?
China most likely do not want to put PGMs on J-7s; that would be the Q-5's job.
So I don't think the J-7 will get much upgraded in the near future, unless China gets a new AAM.
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J-8B will not last much longer than the J-7. They are a must-do combo. J-8 is cheap, but its operating cost is high, and it can't manuver.

J-7 with BVR and PGM is not new


J-7FS was a test aircraft with a much larger radar housed in a much modified nose and air intake That was just a test though.

J-7MF had heaps of hype I remember back in Zhuhai air show (2002 I think?), as it appeared with a much redesigned nose which housed a BVR radar, and we saw on the model 2x PL8 and 2x PL11 AAMs. It was claimed this was to compete with FC-1 as a cheaper alternative. A second model was seen with LGBs. However, the hype has largely died down, and the development has probably favoured J-7G instead. Considering FC-1 and J-7 are from the same company....I think the company has placed more hope on FC-1.

I've been looking at the pics postedn on j7 variants thread on cdf and i'd say the problem with more than 2 pl8 is physical space. There isn't any. Those missiles, however better than pl5, have BIG wings. And the pylons on j7 wing are relatively close to each other, due to landing gear arrangement cornering them on one side, and probably the prospects of screwed up airflow on the edge of the wing, if the outer pylon was to be pushed more out. (its known to happen, while some wings can perfectly normally have stuff underneath them even out to the edge, some can't - like f15. it never was designed with anything but that single big inner wing pylon)

Solution, of course, to replace pl8 is with something a bit more compact. Seeing how pretty much all of sraams are more compact, that should be a given, once new missile does replace pl8. Even further python series gave up on those huge wings.

there is simply no excuse for ongoing production

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The problem is not politics or lack of money or material means. The problem is that there aren't enough trained pilots, ground crews and maintenance personnel for the new planes.
The J-10 is basically unknown to most of the PLAAF personnel. How many bases are equipped with it? - AFAIK only 2 plus some dedicated research units, while the FC-1 is still at the 4th prototype, no two seater yet.
Add to this the relatively short life of the J-7/8 airframes and engines and you will come to the conclusion that there is no way around, they still have to produce them for a while.

The J-7E production is very slow because of the lack of emphasis. They know the type is intended to be phased out so production is only a trickle. So far there is only one J-7G regiment known to exist, being in the 37th Division in Lanzhou MR. We have not seen any more J-7G groups so it's likely production is cancelled in favor of the J-10.

I figure there is probably 250 to 300 J-7E, plus another 30-40 J-7G. There is probably another 700 J-7B/H. The J-7H is the J-7B updated with J-7E radar and avionics, plus strengthened airframe to hold bombs.

I think there is around 300-400 J-8IIs, but the number could be higher (400+) because the size of the J-8II regiments appear to be quite big, like 30-40 planes. There should be around another 100 to 120 J-8A, now converted to the J-8E and J-8R standard. The J-8As are with the 24th Division.

Of the J-8IIs, there is probably around 6 to 8 regiments using the J-8D standard, while the remainder are the J-8B standard upgraded to the J-8D. Among these regiments are those in the FTTC, 9th, 29th, 12th and 26th Division. Probably around one or two regiments using the J-8H, which is at best a transtionary model. The 21st Division appears to be using a mix of J-8H and J-8D, and my guess is that these J-8Ds have been upgraded to the J-8H avionics and radar. The 1st Division is the first to have the J-8F using the PL-12. It does appear that the building of new J-8F is rather slow because the priority of the factory is to upgrade the J-8D to the J-8F standard, which is a much more logical and economical route. I would expect that at least 100 J-8Ds might be upgraded this way.

crobato said:

The J-7E production is very slow because of the lack of emphasis. They know the type is intended to be phased out so production is only a trickle. So far there is only one J-7G regiment known to exist, being in the 37th Division in Lanzhou MR. We have not seen any more J-7G groups so it's likely production is cancelled in favor of the J-10.

I figure there is probably 250 to 300 J-7E, plus another 30-40 J-7G. There is probably another 700 J-7B/H. The J-7H is the J-7B updated with J-7E radar and avionics, plus strengthened airframe to hold bombs.

I think there is around 300-400 J-8IIs, but the number could be higher (400+) because the size of the J-8II regiments appear to be quite big, like 30-40 planes. There should be around another 100 to 120 J-8A, now converted to the J-8E and J-8R standard. The J-8As are with the 24th Division.

Of the J-8IIs, there is probably around 6 to 8 regiments using the J-8D standard, while the remainder are the J-8B standard upgraded to the J-8D. Among these regiments are those in the FTTC, 9th, 29th, 12th and 26th Division. Probably around one or two regiments using the J-8H, which is at best a transtionary model. The 21st Division appears to be using a mix of J-8H and J-8D, and my guess is that these J-8Ds have been upgraded to the J-8H avionics and radar. The 1st Division is the first to have the J-8F using the PL-12. It does appear that the building of new J-8F is rather slow because the priority of the factory is to upgrade the J-8D to the J-8F standard, which is a much more logical and economical route. I would expect that at least 100 J-8Ds might be upgraded this way.

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btw Crobato, any idea what happpened to Rick Kramer's site. I've been trying to look up on the plaaf orbat, but it's down, so I basically have no where to go.