J-10 Thread IV

[AndrewS]

I think China's overall Air force should be expanded significantly to atleast 3000 fighters + 400 bombers. This is necessary to attain complete dominance over western pacific with both US and its ally plane+air defence numbers accounted for.

China used to have a very large air force at 3000+ fighters. But for the last 20 years they have reduced it down to current 2000 fighter range. There is no reason to keep at that level.

China is in the heartland of Asia. just with Air force alone China can project power all over Asia including even the Middle East, South Asia, Malacca Straits and even the Black Sea. All within Range of Chinese long range bombers and long range fighters.

This is an advantage China has that US does not which is to be in the heart of Asia. China should utilize this advantage to the fullest.

So, instead of retiring planes like the J-10A, the better approach should be keep them in lower echelon forces and actually bring online new Air brigades or revive older ones.

China's land borders are essentially secure today. By 2030, I would expect even the Indian Air Force should be wiped out, given how far they continue to fall further behind.

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On China's coastal borders, it is credible to operate tanker aircraft over the water and conduct very distant missions with non-stealthy aircraft

But over China's land borders, I highly doubt they will operate tanker aircraft with huge RCS over hostile landmasses which can hide SAM systems. Ideally you want to only operate stealthy aircraft over hostile landmasses, which means no 4th gen aircraft like the J-10A

 

[antiterror13]

I think J-10's focus should be on being second line defense and multi-role striker with aerial refueling. J-10 does not have the range to work like J-16 but as China's tanker fleet comes along, J-10 can probably do missile truck role.

As for upgrading the J-10As, if we look at PLA's track record, they have upgraded all the old Sovremenny, Type 052s, Type051s during their midlife and kept them relevant even though they were only 1-2 ships per class. Designing upgrade itself is quite costly, so they didn't have to waste design resource on just 1-2 ship per class. But they did it anyway.

This tells me that PLA doesn't like to waste any hardware. So, I doubt China will let these J-10As to go to waste. They will likely come with an upgrade for them as well. Just using these J-10s for training is not their primary function. They need some kind of combat role as well.

or sell them to friendly countries for low prices

 

[tamsen_ikard]

China's land borders are essentially secure today. By 2030, I would expect even the Indian Air Force should be wiped out, given how far they continue to fall further behind.

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On China's coastal borders, it is credible to operate tanker aircraft over the water and conduct very distant missions with non-stealthy aircraft

But over China's land borders, I highly doubt they will operate tanker aircraft with huge RCS over hostile landmasses which can hide SAM systems. Ideally you want to only operate stealthy aircraft over hostile landmasses, which means no 4th gen aircraft like the J-10A

I don't think anyone would dare to shoot down Chinese planes. especially countries like say Tajikistan or even Iran. Kinda similar to how US and Israel can fly their fighters and Bombers with impunity over the middle-east. As time goes on, China should also have that kind reputation and fear that they can operate with no threat over all its neighbours except perhaps India.

I think what prevents China projecting power from Western China is not capability but strategic restraint in thinking.

 

[AndrewS]

I don't think anyone would dare to shoot down Chinese planes. especially countries like say Tajikistan or even Iran. Kinda similar to how US and Israel can fly their fighters and Bombers with impunity over the middle-east. As time goes on, China should also have that kind reputation and fear that they can operate with no threat over all its neighbours except perhaps India.

Then is there really a need to expand the Chinese Air Force to 3000 tactical fighters?

It would be better for the Chinese Air Force to focus on a smaller number of J-36, which have really long range and all-aspe broadband stealth, so they can operate over hostile landmasses and also over ocean

Along with a large buildout of carrier aviation from the Chinese Navy

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Then is there really a need to expand the Chinese Air Force to 3000 tactical fighters?

It would be better for the Chinese Air Force to focus on a smaller number of J-36, which have really long range and all-aspe broadband stealth, so they can operate over hostile landmasses and also over ocean

Along with a large buildout of carrier aviation from the Chinese Navy

Supporting Carrier aviation from Ships in large numbers is much more costly than operating from land. The cost of 1 carrier fleet operating in Persian Gulf or Australia with about 60 fighters would likely cost as much as 200 land based long ranged fighters.

Moreover, Carriers are increasingly vulnerable to enemy anti-ship missiles. One hit and the entire carrier and air wing is gone. That same problem does not exist for land based air power.

Again China can go the carrier route as you suggested. But that will waste the strategic advantage they have from their geography.

Anyways, we are deviating from the original topic which is whether J-10s should be kept or not. My opinion is they should be kept for their entire service length and China's Air force should be expanded by bringing in newer air brigades with J-20, J-35As.

 

[SinoAmericanCW]

Supporting Carrier aviation from Ships in large numbers is much more costly than operating from land. The cost of 1 carrier fleet operating in Persian Gulf or Australia with about 60 fighters would likely cost as much as 200 land based long ranged fighters.

Moreover, Carriers are increasingly vulnerable to enemy anti-ship missiles. One hit and the entire carrier and air wing is gone. That same problem does not exist for land based air power.

Again China can go the carrier route as you suggested. But that will waste the strategic advantage they have from their geography.

Anyways, we are deviating from the original topic which is whether J-10s should be kept or not. My opinion is they should be kept for their entire service length and China's Air force should be expanded by bringing in newer air brigades with J-20, J-35As.

There's no indication that J-10As will be retired early. They're just going to serve in 2nd-line units with a focus on operational training. I assume said training units will be capable of intercepting cruise missiles in a pinch.