Last month Janes confirmed that a large pier was under construction at Djibouti base in East Africa
That base has permanent structures which tells me that Chinas anti piracy missions are a long term commitment, China has had 10 years of permanent naval presence ion Gulf of Aden
We can therefore conclude that China has a permanent footing in Indian Ocean, Pakistan has given Gwader to China for decades long lease again showing its commitment for long term presence
Navigating a carrier strike group through to the Gulf of Aden and transiting the narrow Suez canal and into Mediterranean would be of huge benefit to China so many lessons to be learnt it and it would be a very hard task keeping all the assets together and keeping the carrier safe etc etc the logistics involved would be a really good learning opportunity for the carrier captain of the group and challenges really high
A typical group would have CV-16/17, 2 x type 055, 3 x Type 052D and a SSN backed up by a Type 901 tanker I count over 5,000 sailors
I think that would be a HUGE statement and something that will come in time, maybe not yet but with 5 years the start of Chinese strike group in Indian Ocean
To retain a permanent carrier in Indian Ocean China needs 3 carriers, one on patrol, one on work up and one in refit after patrol
A large pier in Djbouti can mean alot of other things, not just a sign of potential carrier use. In any case, the idea of a carrier being docked in Djbouti holds even less water than having one in Gwadar. For starters, the Chinese base in Djbouti is miniscule at 0.5km, it lacks serious easy access to infrastructure, it is surrounded by a multitude of foreign military bases, and it is sitting right in the middle of the world's busiest waterway, hardly a good place to dock and maneuver a huge sized ship on a regular basis without fear of collision. Smaller ships might make do with such facilities and indeed the majority of China's anti piracy operations are conducted with frigate and destroyer sized vessels.
And looking at the minute details of the agreement between China and Pakistan, it is clear that while a Chinese company will operate the harbour. It never touched upon anything military in nature, even Pakistani media has gone out of it way to report that there is no Chinese naval base in the making, yet.
And it would make even less sense for the PLAN to desire navigating a carrier task force through the Gulf of Aden or the Suze Canal into the Mediterranean because for one there is little strategic interest for China in the Mediterranean that is worth putting forth a costly carrier group. The Mediterranean is essentially a giant enclosed bowl whereby land based fighters can easily wreck havoc on a CBG. The Gulf of Aden to posses a similar issue on a smaller but no less extreme scale.
And the times where a carrier would find itself navigating a narrow expense of water can be counted on the fingers of a single hand, not to mention that such critical juncture of transport would be quickly shut down in the event of serious hostilities.
To be fair real life experience regarding logistic trains, carrier group training and long endurance voyages are something the nascent Chinese CBG can really use, but it is unlikely that China will go out of their way and achieve it. Such thing will come naturally if the course of geopolitics permits it.
