Financial Markets Around World

I would like to have a club-talking thread on financial markets in general and stock trading in particular. I started trading stocks since 90s and always have this fantasy of personality between Edward Thorp and Warren Buffett. As you may guess, I am not nearly as rich as either of them, for I am still hanging out here Trading stocks and watching financial markets is my pastime.

Over times, I joined or created quite a few Internet forums, such as Silicon Investor. Those things evolve. But I still have lots of fond memory. Hopefully, this forum can bring some niche joy to some of us here.

My count is B in ABC after completing the wave 5 on July 16th. Your views are welcome.

If this was B in ABC, then this correction phase would not be over yet. Otherwise, S&P 500 would go much higher into the general election.

My way of reading charts is different from most people's. I agree that the trend for the US market is positive, but maybe one month after the election, there could be toppish signals. I based my reading on DJI though.

However you slice it, this does not appear to be good news (except maybe for Gordon Chang) and is unlikely to boost confidence:

I think China's stock markets will likely start their strong sustainable upswing in 2027 or 2028.

broadsword said:

I think China's stock markets will likely start their strong sustainable upswing in 2027 or 2028.

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Cool. I look forward to healthy development of China stock markets in the long run. I joined my family in China stock trading about 20 years ago, only making some money around 2007. Since then, I lost touch. For now, I only hold some Li Auto ADR at $21.46 apiece for a short-term technical bounce as a proxy to Chinese EV theme. I would want some Ceres if its ADR was available in NY stock exchange. In USD equivalent market caps, Li Auto and Ceres are close. I am interested in watching their market cap race in the coming years. I am a believer in China plug-in hybrid NEV prospects.

I'm not looking into investing in the short term.

From all I read and heard, risk is too high now (and I definitely don't have the capability to navigate it).

Examples being 'Sahm rule' (and many other indicators, as well as what I observe and hear when it comes to the fakery of numbers by the US government lol. Like why is the US gov allowed to keep doing something -30% corrections to some previous months job numbers this year lmao).

Michaelsinodef said:

I'm not looking into investing in the short term.

From all I read and heard, risk is too high now (and I definitely don't have the capability to navigate it).

Examples being 'Sahm rule' (and many other indicators, as well as what I observe and hear when it comes to the fakery of numbers by the US government lol. Like why is the US gov allowed to keep doing something -30% corrections to some previous months job numbers this year lmao).

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That is has been a trillion dollar question ever since the first internet bubble in late 90s, like, "is it a rigged game?" I am going to grab some morning coffee and would try to answer later. BTW, I am not a financial professional and this is club-talking.

As I learned over time, US has been running a fiat monetary system ever since it abandoned gold standard in 1971. Actually all countries in the world now are running fiat monetary system for their respective currencies. There are so many factors that have various impact on the financial markets today. As an amateur for my own pastime, let me start with my memory lane from the Wall Street.

I first-hand lived through the entire first high tech bubble (a.k.a. the Internet bubble) as a young engineer in a startup that built telecom networking gears. So from bits-and-bytes level I understood the whole evolution of the so-called internet revolution, from DS0 modem to OC48 ADM to OC192 DWDM to Netscape browser. Yet the Wall Street threw huge sum of money at so many "startups" that I considered jokes. This bubble picked up in mid 90s after the Clinton telecom deregulation and went crazy after the 1997 Asia financial crisis and the 1998 LTCM blowup. In the whole process, I witnessed:

(1) Greenspan FED was utterly irresponsible for driving loose monetary policy after 1997 and 1998 and well into the so-called Year-2000-Bug. During the peak of the bubble in 1999 and early 2000, MSFT, INTC and CSCO all hit USD 500B market cap. Then came the great crash of NASDAQ. Yet Greenspan was hailed as "Maestro" from the Wall Street as well as the Main Stream Media. This was the major economic event that shattered my perception of "money" and "capital".

(2) Alan Greenspan went on running his loose monetary system all the way until his retirement in 2006. Thanks to Clinton bank deregulation in 1990s, US was running a serious financial bubble in disguise of housing boom. This time it was the Wall Street that was doing "high-tech" financial engineering in forms of MBS, CDO, CDS, etc. During 2008, the Wall Street was technically bankrupt. US government used "borrowed money" to bail out the entire US financial industry, including GE, a disguised financial company in name of an industrial enterprise. This was the major economic event that shattered my perception of banking and regulation.

Since then, the US federal government never resolved the 2008 financial crisis and each administration just kicked the can down the road. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and quantitative easing has been the only game in US monetary management by FED.

So if I pretended living in an ideal utopia, I would definitely say that the system was rigged. But I live in reality and adapt. So, yeah, I watch financial markets for my own interests just like I watch soccer games: (1) try not to lose too much to the inflationary fiat monetary system and (2) try to preserve my earned money.

broadsword said:

I think China's stock markets will likely start their strong sustainable upswing in 2027 or 2028.

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How? With foreign capital outflows at high levels and FUD both from domestic and foreign sentiment it's hard to see a path to recovery right now. I think both US and China markets are dependent on domestic political results. Imo markets are done with Xi Jiping. They need reassurance from either Xi or a future leader, regardless of what the situation on the ground is.

Same with US. Markets are trying to price a Harris or Trump win and they haven't guessed a winner.