Chinese MALE, HALE (and rotary, small, suicide) UAV/UCAV thread

[Totoro]

It really dwpends on what kind of drones.
1 million small quadcopters per year is something ukraine does easily. In fact zelensky recenrly said they can do ( but perhaps did not do yet? ) 4 million per year. And that they contracted 1.5 million drones in first 9 months of 2024.

Of course, those are small quadcopters, assembled mainly from imported components. Commercial grade stuff is precisely what allows such numbers and low cost.

If we are talking about special designs for the military, then pricetags like for switchblade are more likely. But adjusted for large volume production. So even US would probably pay less than half the reported 60 000 pricetag per munition for a million such munitions. And also making a million per year is then much harder to do, since it's a bespoke design. But if anyone can do it, it's Chinese industry.

 

[Biscuits]

If true, there's no way it's 1 million Shaheed type drones.
I reckon it's a bare minimum of $15K each ($15 Bn total) plus a very large number of warehouses.
Plus where are the launchers?

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In comparison, 1 million FPV drones at $500-1000 each sounds reasonable.

Note how both Russia and Ukraine are producing 1+ Mn FPV drones per year.

Afaik Poly doesn't even make FPV. It would also not take 2 years to procure 1 million FPV.

China has easily facilities to store dozens of millions of cars and a production capacity of ~60 million personal vehicles per year. Storing mid range drones or making trucks for their launch is a drop in the bucket.

They're not paying Russia's imported component price for Gerans, since Russia imports those from China to begin with. Costs will be a fraction of $15k. For reference, China also about every 2-3 year wastes $2-3 billions on subsidising the Russian military by buying small numbers of random platforms for testing. They can easily buy ammo for the PLA for $4-5 billion.

 

[AndrewS]

Afaik Poly doesn't even make FPV. It would also not take 2 years to procure 1 million FPV.

Remember that there is an interim target of 2027 to have the capability to invade Taiwan.
That would align with a 2 year procurement timeframe.

And it is more efficient to procure over 2 years rather compress everything into 1 year.

China has easily facilities to store dozens of millions of cars and a production capacity of ~60 million personal vehicles per year. Storing mid range drones or making trucks for their launch is a drop in the bucket.

Think about it. If we go with 5 Shaheeds per container pod, that's 200K pods in total.

And could China usefully use 1 million Shaheeds in WestPac?
My guestimate is that China could usefully go after 100K soft fixed aimpoints, so call it 200K in total accounting for failures.

Sure, they could build 1 million Shaheeds, but I think that is excessive and most of that money would be better spent elsewhere.

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In comparison, a stockpile of 1 million FPV drones makes a lot more sense.

In the event of a US-China war over Taiwan:

1. We could see China using 200K per month in a Taiwan scenario.
2. China might as well supply FPV drones to Russia and also for use against Israel. Call it another 100K per month

So a stockpile of 1 million FPV drones would then equate to a 3month stockpile, which would be enough time to ramp up production. China currently has small drone capacity of about 600K per month

NB. In terms of motorcycle engines which could be repurposed for Shaheeds, it looks about 1.5 million engines per month.

They're not paying Russia's imported component price for Gerans, since Russia imports those from China to begin with. Costs will be a fraction of $15k. For reference, China also about every 2-3 year wastes $2-3 billions on subsidising the Russian military by buying small numbers of random platforms for testing. They can easily buy ammo for the PLA for $4-5 billion.

Remember that even a high spec smartphone is $1K
And even JDAM guidance kits are around $25K

The last number I've seen is (an inflated) $50K figure for the Shaheeds that Russia was importing from Iran.

Getting a Shaheed down to $15K would still be an amazing feat.

 

[by78]

The latest popular products from private enterprises: fiber optic guided small suicide quads. The guidance wires are stored in small carbon fiber composite cylinders.

 

[by78]

More high-resolution images of CH-9 and its loadout from Zhuhai Airshow.

 

[pevade]

The latest popular products from private enterprises: fiber optic guided small suicide quads. The guidance wires are stored in small carbon fiber composite cylinders.

Already someone on BiliBili teaching you how to use it.
【光纤设备连接穿越机教程-FPV梦工厂-哔哩哔哩】

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[iewgnem]

The latest popular products from private enterprises: fiber optic guided small suicide quads. The guidance wires are stored in small carbon fiber composite cylinders.

I wonder how niche does non-military use has to become before "dual-use" definition become invalid? Because fiber optics FPV has only one known use. Also what about fire-fighting glide bomb wing kits

 

[Biscuits]

I wonder how niche does non-military use has to become before "dual-use" definition become invalid? Because fiber optics FPV has only one known use. Also what about fire-fighting glide bomb wing kits

It's like German interwar "tractor" companies.

The difference is that Germans were suppressed by the Versailles treaty, while China is just suppressed by its own government not spending much on arms. And in Germany, it was state owned companies making these "dual use" products, while in China, it's independent, often small-time entrepreneurs.

My take on it is that the people are feeling the zeitgeist, the electricity in the air, everyone is just waiting for the moment the government announces that China will again reclaim her old influence zones and new ones across the world. So the smarter entrepreneurs prepare weapon designs like these, knowing the government will pay multi million contracts for them later. But it's not just money, it's also pride about fighting for China with your own mind and effort.