Chinese Economics Thread

[jli88]

It's remarkable that Japanese export volumes continue to fall despite the collapse of the yen. Standard economic theory would not predict that.

As @gelgoog said, industrial structure can't be changed immediately. It takes years to do that.

The effect probably would not be immediate.
If I was the government of Japan I would just let the Yen totally collapse. It would probably solve all their financial problems.
It would make their enormous debt, mostly in Yen, trivial to pay for example.

Collapse of Yen would be extremely catastrophic for its citizens:

• Massive Inflation: food, energy, other raw materials.
• With collapse of Yen, the people's labor in nominal terms gets devalued.
• Massive capital flight leading to a drag on the economy
• Even investments might not come in if the currency keeps depreciating, until the depreciation has stabilized.
• Massive human flight, already I have been seeing reports in Japanese media of foreigners trying to switch to Korea or other countries. With major depreciation, there will be a flight of both domestic and foreign talent.

It does not matter if Japan has a positive balance of trade. The question is can they get positive balance of trade or not.

If your goal is simply to get a positive trade balance then maybe yes (even this is not necessary). The negative effects though are incredible as listed above.

 

[canonicalsadhu]

Didn't see this story covered here... Action plan for equipment upgrade released by the State Council few weeks ago

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Some industrial enterprises in China are still using outdated and inefficient equipment that have served beyond their designed lifespan. As industries quicken their upgrade processes, such equipment needs to be replaced and upgraded.

The action plan specifies also multiple tasks, including promoting remanufacturing and cascading use, refining energy consumption, emissions and technology standards, and improving technical standards of products.

The action plan said China aims to increase its investment in equipment for industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, education, culture, tourism and medical care by at least 25 percent by 2027, compared with 2023.

According to the plan, energy efficiency of major energy-consuming equipment in key industries will essentially achieve energy conservation standards; the proportion of production capacity meeting Grade A level environmental performance will rise significantly; industrial enterprises above the designated size will see the digitalization rate of R&D tools exceeding 90 percent and the computer numerical control rate for key production procedures surpassing 75 percent.

CNBC also covered this action plan and mentioned that this would translate to a 0.5% in added GDP growth a year.

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[zbb]

China to kick off 1 trillion yuan stimulus bond issues this week​

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China's Premier Li Qiang on Monday urged officials to make good use of the ultra-long special treasury bonds to support the implementation of major national strategies as well as building security capabilities in key areas, state media reported.

 

[tphuang]

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Inner Mongolia investing 59B RMB on coal chemical factories

内蒙古卓正煤化工项目位于苏里格经济开发区纳林河产业园，一期项目估算投资255亿元。该项目在原有基础上进行了延链补链和深加工，涉及新材料如PGA新的热解塑料和高端聚甲醛的生产，为地方经济的转型升级提供了有力支撑。项目建成后，将解决当地2400余个就业岗位，实现利税59亿元，为地方经济注入新的活力。

同时，乌审旗还积极推进煤矿项目的建设和改造。从2023年开始，陆续开复工建设了白家海子煤矿、陶忽图煤矿等年产800万吨矿井，并同步配套建设矿井水处理、风井等项目。其中，中天合创门克庆二号风井项目的建设将进一步保障煤矿安全生产，提高矿井救灾能力。

25.5B RMB for production of new materials such as PGA, new pyrolytic plastics and high-end polyformaldehyde

using expanded coal production for this