Discussion continued in this thread due to the risk of derailing the initial thread (
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)).
1. I don't think it even makes sense for the PLAAF to develop a transport which is even larger than the Y-20.
You'd be looking at something like a C-5 Galaxy. But what can it do that a Y-20 can't?
2. In terms of priorities, the H-20 should be far more important than a larger C-5 class transport aircraft
Even if he is right about "H-20 not unveiled within next 5 years", all his reasonings are wrong or irrelevant IMO. Xi'an isn't involved in 6th gen fighter or J-20. Y-20 program is in a different stage that has no competition in resources with H-20, they don't share much of people or facilities. An even larger transport is IMO outlandish because I don't see the purpose for PLAAF.
Regarding the development of An-124/C-5-class next-generation large airlifter for the PLAAF, other than
@还是捣蛋's claim early this year, I don't think anyone else has further mention about it.
However, if and when there is a need to develop a larger-sized airlifter for the PLAAF to complement and replace the Y-20,
one of the most important requirements for said large airlifter must include
significant improvement on the size of the cargo compartment.
深秋不是鸡腿子 and @没有脖子的平原 on Bilibili jointly made this highly informative video, discussing about China's next-generation large airlifter::
In particular, from 05:48 to 09:19, the video compares the sizes of cargo compartments of:
1.
Il-76: 20.00m long x 3.45m wide x 3.40m high.
2.
Y-20: >20.00m long x ~4.00m wide x ~4.00m high.
3.
C-17: 25.96m long x 5.49m wide x 3.96-4.10m high.
And by using these PLA land vehicles to represent the different vehicle size categories for ease of comprehension:
1.
Small-size:
CSK181 MRAP, which is 5.65m long x 2.12m wide x 2.38m high.
2.
Medium-size:
VN1 APC, which is 7.80m long x 3.00m wide x 3.20m high.
3.
Large-size:
HT-233 radar vehicle, which is 15.00m long x 3.05m wide x 3.95m high, plus
HQ-9 launcher vehicle, which is 13.00m long x 3.05m wide x 3.84m high.
4.
Extra large-size: Type 22 missile boat which is 42.20m long x 12.25m wide x 13.80m tall (included as a joke)
Continuing by doing some rough Tetris, and here're the results:
1. For small-size (CSK181):
-
Il-76 can carry
3x;
-
Y-20 can carry
3x; and
-
C-17 can carry
6x (2 rows of 3x each).
2. For medium-size (VN1):
-
Il-76 can carry
3x;
-
Y-20 can carry
3x; and
-
C-17 can carry
3x.
3. For large-size (HT-233 and HQ-9 launcher):
-
Il-76 can carry
none (too big);
-
Y-20 can carry
1x; and
-
C-17 can carry
1x.
So, here's the analysis:
1. While the Y-20 certainly can carry 6x CSK181 based on payload weight capacity alone, yet the smaller width of the Y-20's cargo compartment compared to the C-17's means that those extra payload weight capacity available for the Y-20 is wasted;
2. The Y-20 is able to carry the HT-233 and HQ-9 launcher, but only barely when taking height into account; and
3. Due to the insufficient height of the cargo compartment of the Il-76, the payload weight capacity of the Il-76 means nothing as it is incapable of fitting both the HT-233 and the HQ-9 launcher inside of it.
Therefore, the key point being that for China's next-generation large airlifter to supplement and replace the Y-20,
the dimension of the cargo compartment must be expanded compared to the Y-20, with particular focus on the
width and height of its cargo compartment in order to fit wider and taller PLA vehicles that are expected in the future (such as radar and launcher vehicles for China's mid-course/terminal ABM system) -
And without closely approaching or crossing right into the territory of the C-5 & An-124's very large airlifters.
My own very-rough recommendation for the cargo compartment of China's next-generation large airlifter:
- Length can be extended to 25-28 meters;
- Width should be extended to 5.0-5.5 meters; and
- Height should be extended to 4.1-4.3 meters.
In the meantime, does anyone know the notional dimension of the cargo compartment on the proposed Y-20-F100?
Last but not least, just for the sake of sideline comparison, here're the cargo compartment dimensions of:
1. C-5: 37.0m long x 5.8m wide x 4.1m high.
2. An-124: 36.5m long x 6.4m wide x 4.4m high.
3. An-225 (RIP): 43.4m long x 6.4m wide x 4.4m high.