China's Space Program Thread II

[Asug]

Wow, I think this is the first presentation like this!

 

[antwerpery]

And @antwerpery was wondering why the LM-8 was needed...

Oh wow, a couple months delay of one of the dozen private companies trying for reusable rockets. Truly amazing, all those singular LM-8 launches per year really really really helps to propel the entire Chinese space program to new heights. I will agree with you that the LM-8 makes sense, I see it making sense in a world where China repeatedly crashes and burns regarding reusable rockets, as a stopgap replacement. Though the fact that it has only launched on an average rate of once a year, the last 4 years and is barely starting to scale up in 2025 does mean that it's usefulness is limited. Very very very limited, what's the point of a single LM-8 launch a year and the scaling up of the LM-8 when the reusable rockets is right around the corner? I don't mind the LM-8, I mind the fact that they are investing billions into trying to scale up production in 2025 and giving it an entire launchpad when reusable rockets are less than a year away. And the scaling up of the LM-8 is so slow too, we're 1/3th of the way into 2025 and there has been 2 launches so far. How many launches this year? 4/6/8? Totally worth all that money going into new factories and effort and letting it eat up an entire launchpad when reusable are a year away at worse? I really won't have any issues with the LM-8 if they could have increased the launches in 2020/2021/2022/2023/2024, but since the 2025 is literally the first year to have more than a single launch, and since 2025 is also the year where the 7 private companies are expected to launch their F9 clones. Not great timing to say the least. Unless you think that somehow the entirely of the reusable efforts are doomed and we don't even see a single launch until 2028.

Ok fine the LM-8 makes sense but trying to scale it up to dozens of launches in 2025/2026, a lot less so. But what's the point of the LM-12? In another episode of "Chinese state agencies are dinosaurs who cannot innovate and cannot try anything new", let's shit on the LM-12. Even without reusable rockets, the LM-12 is redundant. China's rocket program is adaptable, compared to SpaceX's "one rocket to rule them all approach", China has many different rockets for various purposes and payload ranges. Discarding reusable rockets for now, what's the point of the LM-12 when it's payload range is similar to LM-3/7/8?

The LM-8 meant to be the next generation workhorse rocket, so what's the point of another mainline Long march rocket with a similar payload range? Going for so many different rockets already complicates logistics and increases costs, so the least that you can do is make sure that at least your mainline Long March rocket's payload ranges and roles don't overlap too much. You would think that SAST would develop a rocket that has vastly different payloads from the other long march series, maybe around 20 tons to LEO, something that sits between the LM-7 and LM-5, or maybe a heavy lift rocket that's even more powerful than the LM-5, something that can take >30-40 tons to LEO. Or maybe they actually innovated a little and developed the LM-12 with a whole bunch of new technology, new fuels, new engine designs, new materials etc etc. Instead they develop a expendable rocket with a payload that overlaps with the 3 other Long march rockets and doesn't do bring anything new to the table.

Add reusable rockets into the mix and it's worse. The LM-12 is the last long march rocket to be developed, as seen by it's name. So it must have entered development after 2014, so at least in an very early stages of development where you can make drastic changes. So after 2014 when it was clear that reusable rockets were going to be the next thing, SAST still stuck to developing an expendable rocket. SAST could have just developed a reusable variant from the very start, instead of developing two different rockets and throwing the expendable version into the dustbin. The expendable LM-12 is simply dead on arrival, it will be lucky to get more than 3 launches, lots of wasted money and resources. Who knows? If SAST had actually bothered to going for reusability from the very start instead of developing two different rockets, they could have had china's first reusable rocket, or at least the first reusable Long March rocket. As it is, the expendable version is dead on arrival and reusable version is probably going to come out in 2-3 years, in a market that's gonna be saturated in private F9 clones. Both variants of the LM-12 are pretty useless as it stands.

So yeah, you have the LM-8 to fill in the role of the workhorse rocket, especially if china keeps failing in their reusable rocket attempts. So why is the LM-12 another utterly unimpressive expendable rocket that fulfills the same role as the LM-8 and doesn't do anything new, despite going into development much later?

The worse part is that the LM-12 could have fulfilled a important gap in the chinese rocket landscape. Again, basic forecasting could have predicted this. The private companies are all working on their F9 clones, none of their rockets are above 20 tons to LEO. And their FH clones/heavy lift rockets are a long way away, maybe 4-5 years for most of them. The LM-10 is dedicated for manned space missions, and will be very busy due to the crewed lunar landings. So until 2030 or so, the LM-5 is still gonna be China's only main workhorse heavy lift rocket. If the LM-12 was a heavy lift rocket, even as an expendable rocket, it will have it's uses, especially if it's more powerful than the LM5, and I won't have any issues with it, even if it's expendable. But noooooo, it had to be a bog stanard medium lift rocket that won't look out of place if it had came out in the 1970s and the expendable version doesn't offer any new capabilities compared to the LM-8 or the reusable variant to the private reusable rockets coming out around the same time.

I will admit that the private companies do fuck up, and have been delays after delays. But they are young and have very limited funding. There's like 15 private rocket companies and there's only really space for around 2-3 companies to exist in the end. There's companies that are younger than the total development time spent on the LM-12, that are going to debut their F9 clones this or next year. Meanwhile, SAST, that doesn't have to worry about going out of business, or running out of money or pleasing investors, what have they made in the latest addition to the Long March series? Is it China's first reusable Long March rocket? Or a even more powerful rocket than the LM-5, fulfilling the niche payload range between the LM-5 and LM-9? Or some other super innovative rocket that uses new fuels/materials or engine designs? Nope, it's a slightly more powerful version of the LM-8, aren't you guys excited? That's totally worth all of that taxpayer money and development time to get what's basically a LM-8 variant right?